Saturday Soccer Betting Tips

A couple of soccer tips for you this weekend.

These come 99Reds over at the Football Bets website.

As you can see there is little waffle to these.
The advice is based on 99 Reds stats database.
If you look at the historic results section on the football bets site
you will see his advice has been well worth following
with a significant long term net profit.

Yeovil v Huddersfield (3:00pm)
Huddersfield TO WIN at 3/4 William Hill Ladbrokes Stan James PaddyPower 1pt

OVER 2.5 Goals Double
Man City v Wolves OVER 2.5 Goals (3:00pm)
Preston v Bournemouth OVER 2.5 Goals (3:00pm)
This double pays out 7/5 Sky Coral 27/20 PaddyPower Blue Square Betfred BoyleSports  1pt

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Our regular free Saturday Tip from Guy at the Mathematician site.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips

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N e w m a r k e t   3.55

3/1 Tactfully, 9/2 Abishena, 9/2 Oojooba
7/1 Gifted Girl, 12/1 Graser 14/1 Na Zdorovie
Coquet, 16/1 Dare To Dream 20/1 Esentepe
25/1 Pretty Pebble, 33/1 Amthal.

The Montrose Fillies Stakes is a 2yo Listed race for
fillies over a Mile. It has an 11 year history. Always
a hard race to find the winner and so many shocks in
this race in the past show that. The History of this
suggests that the winner will have the following profile.

* She will have 1-2-3-4 career starts
* She will not have ran in the past fortnight
* She will not have come from a Nursery
* She will not come from a 6f race
* She will never have ran in Group class before
* She will have finished at least 2nd before in a race
* Horses winning 7f maidens have a 1-15 record
* None managed that with 1 career start
* I dont want horses from maidens with 3 runs
* No horse from maidens were absent 80 + days
* The bad news is this leads to a large shortlist
* The Good news is one horse does stand out

S h o r t l i s t

* COQUET – Shortlistable on my angles
* AMTHAL – Outside chance in an outsiders race 40/1
* GRASER – Has a reasonable profile
* OOJOOBA – Profile fine but I dont like the draw
* This years winning stalls over 8f here with 12 + runners
* 13 7 11 11 5 8 10 16 1 9
* The horse winning from Stall 1 was….Frankel !!!
* OOJOOBA may not find Stall 1 any help at all
* TACTFULLY won an 8f maiden on her only start
* Horses with 1 run finishing 1st or 2nd in an 8f maiden
* Running 2-6 weeks ago
* Horses with this profile had a 3-7 record
* Very interesting that 2 of these came from the same race
* The 2007 and 2008 winner won a Nottingham maiden
* TACTFULLY won the same race and has the same profile

Selection – TACTFULLY

7/2 at Tote VC Betfred Bet365

Horses On Their First Run In A Handicap Race

Punters are often trying to spot a big sting or a planned gamble. A classic perception is that some horses are intentionally run badly in order to give them a very lenient first handicap mark.

The stats show however that betting every horse on it’s first handicap run is a very fast track route to the poor house.

However NOT all first time handicap runners are a bad bet. With some research and number crunching it is possible to identify profitable angles for backers or alternately sources of good lays for Betfair.

Dave Renham has crunched several years of racing history and written it all up in a couple of free to view articles.

Take a look here

For those of you into laying the below is one to consider.

4.40 Catterick – Just Lille

Looking like being around 5/2 – 11/4 zone.

Why lay it?

Well quite simple the method it is dervied from has been long term profitable over several years. Some of them do win of course but it has posted a very good long term net profit.

It is from a method titled Terry’s Lays.

This is not a new thing with a load of marketing hype.

More so a long term available thing that has been proven live for a long time now.

More info about this at the page below.

==> Horse Laying System

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A s c o t   1.50

9/4 Opinion Poll, 5/2 Fame And Glory, 7/2 Times Up
16/1 Motrice, 20/1 Colour Vision, 25/1 Chiberta King
25/1 Darley Sun, 25/1 Nehaam, 33/1 Eternal Heart
40/1 Polly4s Mark.

This 2m Group 3 race is actually the Jockey Club Cup
which is always run at Newmarket. It has been stolen
by Ascot to start their Champions Day card. Whether
any trends hold up because of this I dont know. There
are only mixed angles here anyway. This race has been
dominated by horses coming from the Doncaster Cup
last time out. An incredible 11 of the last 20 winners
of this race came from that race. Any horse that ran
elsewhere last time comes out badly because this trial
race has dominated the race. Today OPINION POLL
and MOTRICE come from this trial. Against these 2
are the fact no 5 year olds like OPINION POLL won
from that race and no filly like MOTRICE did either
so its complicated. FAME AND GLORY comes here
from a 14f race and horses doing that have not done
that well. TIMES UP has to be considered but he has
never won a Group race before the both his main two
rivals have won Group 1-2 races between them. I feel
I should stay with the Doncaster Cup horses despite a
few reservations given above. Because of that and the
race moving to Ascot I see a shortlist of two horses.

OPINION POLL- MOTRICE

I wouldn’t rule MOTRICE out. She started favourite
for this race last year but was only 3yo filly and she
did well to finish second. This year she is fresher and
older and comes from the best trial race. She has not
got much to find with OPINION POLL who was just
1.5 lengths ahead of her last time. That day I had her
as a negative for various reasons. She cant be that far
behind OPINION POLL and given that she is 14/1 I
have to see her as value having started 7/4 in this last
year. I see OPINION POLL as a good saver. Maybe a
good place only bet as well as he should be right there
and easily makes the shortlist. Given the prices I feel
we should try and attack the better priced option here.

Selection – MOTRICE 14/1 +  Each Way

14/1 at 1/4 odds available at Bet365 William Hill & PaddyPower

Nb beware a few other miserly bookmakers  only offer 1/5 th odds

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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The below is from Kevin aka 99Reds.
Kevin is an ex player manager from the lower leagues.
He is renowned as a soccer stats freak and maintains personal records
to give him an edge soccer betting wise.

He is one of three experts available for £1 over at the football bets website.

As you can see his selections are short and sweet and very much to the point.
His long term net profit record is very good.
A full tip by tip breakdown of that is available at the footbal bets website.

Any how over to Kevin for todays Action.

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A nice run of winners over the past few days and
we have 4 bets from the Premiership for today

12.45pm   Liverpool v Man Utd   Rooney First Booking   16/1   Blue Square   0.5pt

12.45pm   Liverpool v Man Utd   Carroll to Score First   9/1   Ladbrokes   0.5pt

3.00pm   Man City v Villa   Man City/Man City in HT/FT market   10/11   Coral   1pt

3.00pm   Wigan v Bolton   Over 2.5 goals   1/1   Sky   1pt

Best wishes

Kevin

www.football-bets.co.uk

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A simplistic view of racing sites on the net is that they fall into two camps.

Camp 1 – These are complete con men often marketing men who know little about racing
but who can and will do and say anthing to part you from your cash.

Camp 2 – Hard working and knowlegable people. True experts in their field who can
help mentor you to success.

Michael Wilding I would palce most definately in camp 2.

He  wants to give you a free winner finding tool!

The Puntology Auto Race Ratings Tool is a spreadsheet that you just paste
data into from the Racing Post website and instantly it calculates a rating
for each horse and highlights the top rated.

The whole process takes less than 30 seconds per race.

When you visit the Puntology site today you can also watch a video of the
(very nice) Michael Wilding walking you through using the tool, step by
step.

So why is Michael giving this great tool away for free?

Puntology 2.0

Of course there is a catch, but its just a small one, the giveaway is in
support of the relaunch of the Puntology training program.

The Puntology course is a great program and I urge you to read all about it
when the details of the updated lessons are released, but if you just want
the free tool then that’s fine, just pop over to

Visit Puntology Now

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The below is a small extract from todays message from an ex accountant called Big Mike. Understanding the numbers side of things is a  big help in betting. Mike is pretty good at using the numbers to edge the odds in his favour.

I have skipped out any advised bets from him below.

He normally has several daily on both horse racing and sports.

His service is worth a look.

I’d be hopeful of sorting some form of free trial offer for viewers here in the near future.  I will let you know by email if / when available if you register for sports betting blog at the link below.

http://www.sports-betting-blog.co.uk/wp-login.php?action=register

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Big Mikes Saturday Column

G`day.  England second best in Auckland but what about Wales?  The
Principality will be buzzing what with the resounding win over Ireland but
also Richie Burnet`s amazing comeback in the World Grand Prix Darts.

In Racing I would just point out that I am still wary about Donald McCains
horses currently.  I feel they are short of `work` no doubt due to the
Funeral situation surrounding Ginger so where today I would have been firm
on a selection I am playing with a `saver` via the Aewsome.  I have no
qualms about the long term situation as they have too many good horses in
the yard but temporarily just take a bit of caution into your betting.

The Cesarewitch at 350 has its usual 33 runners and I see Stan James have
retreated and paying 1st 4 only.   Sign of the times maybe.  I have a
little – and I mean little – bet on the race.

Very trappy stuff today and a lot of rain about so just going with a ***
Awesome.

Many Sports bets though.

A few Market Moves

These are purely notes by the way – NOT bets!

NEWMARKET

425

Early money here for Pimpernel here – now 10/3 from 4s

535

Dux Scholar (Stoute) is firm here – now 3/1 from 4s.

YORK

250

Weapon of Choice is backed.  Has been as low as 5/1 and now 11/2 but still
supported.

440

Memory Lane (Sir Mark Prescott) backed into 6/1 from an early 9/1 and
gamble showing no signs of waning.

CHEPSTOW

300

African Broadway well backed here.  13/8 into evens for the Pipe yard.

335

Joe Punter is backing Slightly Tanned (Paul Nicholls) is now 4/6 from 5/6.
I will be looking for an ew alternative.

620

An interesting one here maybe.  Ivors King from Colin Tizzard.  Now 7/2
from an opening 11/2.

WOLVERHAMPTON

Bit early to be looking here but there is an eyecatcher in the 900 where
Castlemorris King is now 5/2 from 4/1.

Get more free stuff from Big Mike at his own website.

===> Big Mike Betting

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Long Distance Handicap Chases by David Renham

In this article I am going to look at long distance handicap chases to see if we can improve our chances of a) picking the winner, but more importantly b) gaining enough value on the winners to make a profit. I have decided that any race 3m2f or longer counts as a long distance chase.

However, what I am not going to do is back track through data and manipulate the stats to some degree. Indeed far too many people do this – they back-fit the results to create a set of rules or a system, that ends up producing a profit. Unfortunately 99 times out of 100 these ‘positive’ findings will not be reflected in future results. My plan to look at a variety of areas in an attempt to find potential starting points – basically these are raw ideas that have the potential to produce winning systems or winning methods. So here goes. The data has been taken from 2007 to October 4^th 2011. All profit/loss figures are calculated to £1 level stakes. SR% stands for strike rate; ROI% stands for return on investment.

Age

When thinking about long distance chasers I think about older horses rather than younger ones. However as the table shows, it is horses aged 6 to 8 that tend to do best in these events:

Combining horses aged 6 to 8 we get 257 wins from 2180 runners (SR 11.8%) for a loss of £232.19 (ROI -10.7%). OK it still makes a loss, but less than 11p in the £, so these horses seem a good group to concentrate on. If we compare their record with horses aged 9 and older we can see it compares favourably – the older group combine for 229 wins from 2796 runners (SR 8.2%) for a loss of £754.48 (ROI -27.0%). So we have losses of 27p in the £, and a lower strike rate to boot.

Position LTO

Recent form is something most punters latch on to, and hence there often is limited value around following a good run last time out. However, let us see the figures for LTO performance in terms of finishing position for our long distance chasers:

LTO winners have actually got a decent record with losses of only 4.5p in the £. Interestingly, horses that finished 6^th or worse LTO have lost only 6.6p in the £ – I would imagine these runners tend to start at better prices than they should due to punters being indifference to their chances. Horses that failed to finish LTO look very poor value and are horses to avoid.

LTO Market Position

Market factors are often used when looking for ideas, angles or systems, but usually it is the actual starting price that is used. The problem with using this as a ‘filter’ is that we don’t know the SP until after the event. We may have a pretty good idea close to the ‘off’ but not many people are able to wait until the very last minute to place their bet. I often look at market factors from previous races. Here, I am looking at their market position LTO. The results are as follows:

The only semi-positive here is the performance of LTO favourites – a decent enough strike rate coupled with losses of around 6p in the £.

Race type LTO

Most long distance handicap chasers race primarily over fences, but there are a few horses that switch back and forth. I thought it was worth looking at whether race type LTO makes any difference:

It looks as if horses that ran over hurdles last time are worth closer scrutiny. They have a better strike rate than those running over fences LTO, and backing all of them actually has made a profit. Now, it is unlikely this profit would be repeated over a subsequent 5-year period, but clearly these runners perform above expectations and probably start at prices that are higher than they should be.

Jockeys

The perception of many is that although claiming/conditional jockeys are able to take weight off the back of a horse, their inexperience means that the claim becomes effectively worthless. The stats for jockeys in these long distance chases makes interesting reading …………

Conditional jockeys claiming 5lb or more have a strike rate virtually identical to professional jockeys, but their losses are significantly less. This is almost certainly down to punters or bookmakers pushing out the prices of horses ridden by conditional jockeys claiming 5lb or more.

Conclusions

I have looked at 5 different angles and the stats have pinpointed some areas that are better than others. So how best can we utilize the stats? Well, the lazy system punter would almost certainly combine the ‘best’ bits of the five areas – so the system would look something like this:

1. won LTO

2. favourite LTO

3. Aged 6 to 8

4. Ridden by conditional jockey claiming 5lb or more

5. Raced in hurdle race LTO

For the record since 2007 this ‘system’ would have produced a strike rate of 66.7% and a return on investment of over 90%. However, before you all start planning your retirement due to this gilt-edged winning system, I should point out that there would have only been 3 selections in the 5 years of study!!! Essentially, this is an example of why back-fitting is not good practice. Too often people use too many rules when creating their systems – this either cuts down the number of bets to ridiculously small amounts, as in this case, or it simply gives a false set of figures even with a decent final sample size.

At the beginning of the article I mentioned the fact I would be looking to find potential starting points – this is rather than producing rigid ‘systems’ that have too many rules. It is my belief that a sensible starting point is when you combine two factors only. So that is what I am going to do. I am going to use the same 5 rules in the lazy system example, but will combine them in twos, not in one block of five. Here are the results:

As we can see, only one combination has produced poor returns – ‘the won LTO and ran in hurdle LTO’ one. Of the remaining 9 starting points, 4 showed a profit, the other 5 showed small losses. Now I am not advocating backing all horses in the future that match these starting points, but clearly any runner that does ‘match’ should be given further consideration. Others factors could then be taken into account such as going, trainer, class, fitness, etc.

Author Bio

Dave Renham works at the Racing and Football Outlook newspaper as their Race Trends expert; has worked on The Racing Post as a writer of the spotlight column and has published several books about horse racing research.

On the Web Dave is heavily involved with the respected horse racing websites www.PunterProfits.com and www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Our Regular Saturday installment from Guy is below.

Over the past two Saturdays he gave us an 18/1 and a 6/1 winner.

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M e s s a g e   T h o u g h t s

Mainly a Newmarket and York based message for full members today. Done lots of races at each track. I have probably gone a few places
I shouldn’t have done but I had a fair crack at both cards.

We will have some serious business at Chepstow again in
the next few months. One of my favourite tracks and no
doubt some fascinating battles to come. Today though is
probably a day to leave it alone here. Both Chepstow and
Hexham are pretty average cards. I have done a few little
National Hunt lines at both meetings. That opens up the
analysis but I have to say nothing excited me. It seems a
very bland piece of work and Knowing what both tracks
can and will offer in the future I am not interested today.

F r i d a y ’s   S u m m a r y

Over the months and years I’m sure York has beaten me
more than not and I still rate it my worst track. Despite
that yesterday we finished a long way ahead and picked
it apart seemingly very easily and that contributed to a
very smart message. I thought I more than held my own
with the National Hunt business. I concentrated mainly
at York. Some very smart staking in the first two races
left us level when we could have gone behind. Shortlisted
the 3.05 winner but My choice was only 4th. There was
another setback in the Maiden. Late winners El Lail and
Trip The Light in a split stake bet made sure we had the
best of it at York. The main bet though was MUSNAD
each way at 8/1. He finished 2nd so a small profit on a
reasonably good bet. Before the race MUSNAD drifted
badly out to 16/1 and I was very concerned that he was
one of those bets that mysteriously sink without trace
and that fear increased when he came out in last place
at the start. Then to my surprise he ran his race and it
looked like he had won the race storming clear and he
went to as low as 1.06 in running. Sadly though he was
caught very late by another I shortlisted and we ended
up with only the place and a small profit. Overall that
was enough to contribute to a very decent message.

For Full Members my strongest bet today runs in the 4.40
at York.

You get immediate access to the full member area on joining
so if you were to join before 4.40 you can pick that up inside.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

Todays Free Saturday Tip

We are on a roll here on the free blog with winners at 18/1 and 6/1
over the past two weekends.

Winning runs mean little really however.
More important is that over a year profits add up to more than expendature.
Rather than post up a shortie here today to try and manipulate a three in a row sequence we are going for a highly speculative long odds selection on long term value principles.

N e w m a r k e t  2.05

5/4 Strong Suit, 9/4 Chachamaidee, 6/1 Maqaasid
12/1 Rimth, 20/1 Across The Rhine, 20/1 Giant Sandman
25/1 Elshabakiya, 25/1 Lechevalier Choisi.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 21 renewals since 1990
* This is always an interesting Group race
* You want a horse with 5 and 14 career starts
* 19 of the last 21 winners had between 5 and 14
* Horses with 13 or more runs have struggled here
* ACROSS THE RHINE fails that and looks exposed
* GIANT SANDMAN is also too exposed from a 6f race
* CHACHAMAIDEE is on the borderline with 14 runs
* There are some factors about her I dislike
* CHACHAMAIDEE is a Filly
* No Fillies aged 4 or 5 have won this race and she is 4
* No fillies won with 13 or more runs
* No fillies won dropping from a  Mile like her
* CHACHAMAIDEE is not like any female winners
* There are just 3 winners that had 13 or more runs
* None of these dropped from a Mile
* CHACHAMAIDEE  doesnt seem safe
* MAQAASID is a 3yo filly as were 4 winners
* None however were absent more than 7 weeks
* MAQAASID has been absent over 10 weeks
* All fillies aged 3 had at least 6 runs that season
* MAQAASID only has 5 runs this year
* MAQAASID just falls short because of these issues
* LECHEVALIER CHOISI has a shaky profile
* He is 3 and has an absence
* No 3 year old with 9 + runs won with his absence
* He is also short on backclass as well
* RIMTH just falls short as a 3yo filly
* She has a lot of positives but two negatives
* All 3yo fillies had more runs that season than her
* They all achieved more than she did last time out

S h o r t l i s t

* STRONG SUIT is the highest rated horse here
* He is 3 and has a 74 days absence
* There were 10 winners aged 3
* None of these were absent 7 or more weeks
* That raises a doubt about STRONG SUIT
* STRONG SUIT has raced just 4 times this year
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3-4 runs this year are 1-39
* That was Kahal back in 1997
* He was lighter raced and had a recent race
* There is an argument against STRONG SUIT
* His absence and runs this year may leave him short
* His Class and rating demands he gets full respect

* ELSHABAKIYA was my 16/1 each way bet last Saturday
* She finished fast and came second at Ascot
* Fillies aged 3 have won 4 renewals of this race
* They all had 7-12 runs like her
* They all finished 1-2-3-4 last time out
* They all had 6-7-8 runs that season like her
* Similar horses had a 4-7 record in this race
* ELSHABAKIYA comes out very well
* She is similar to 2007 winner Miss Lucifer
* She came from the October Stakes just as she does
* Dont worry about the price
* This is a race that has seen several big shocks

Selection – ELSHABAKIYA 33/1 Each Way
Go with Bet365 Ladbrokes or Stan James who pay 1/4 odds
33/1 also available at PaddyPower but they only pay out 1/5 odds

Best wishes
Guy

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

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