I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral Bet365 William Hill

===============================

This was provided by Guy Ward aka The Mathematician

To visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Free Horse Racing Tips

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Doncaster favourites

Goodwood favourites

Hamilton favourites

Lingfield favourites

Newmarket favourites

Thirsk favourites

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

==================================================

This information was taken from the excellent RacingTrends Service.

Shown above is actually just a small portion of the Saturday message from RacingTrends. In addition to horse racing statistics RacingTrends also provide long term profitable systematic lays selections which are a bit more akin to a normal tipping service.

HINT: RacingTrends  will on occasion offer a free trial to sports betting blog subscribers. Why not Register Here for Free so you know when such a deal is available.

Spread Betting On Promoted Premiership Teams

The nation’s football spread betting fans have been showing their support for newly promoted  QPR, Norwich and Swansea ahead of the start of the new football season.

The Hoops, Canaries and Swans will be facing a baptism of fire in the top flight after winning promotion into the premier league last term.

However, punters have been backing the teams to beat the forecasted 2011-12 season points predictions made by leading sports betting and financial bookmaker Spreadex.

Initial points quotes by the firm are between 36.5-38 points by the end of the season for QPR, between 31.5-33 for Norwich and between 31-32.5 for Swansea.

———————————————————————————-

Spreadex Free Bet

Click the link below to get a secret page free bet offer not found by their home page visitors.

Free £30 Bet With Spreadex

———————————————————————————-

Spread betting punters have been putting their money behind all three finishing on higher points totals come May.

Spreadex spokesman Andy MacKenzie said: “After Blackpool’s plucky showing last season, football spread betting punters have been really getting behind the newly promoted clubs.

“Although Ian Holloway’s men did eventually get relegated last term, they finished far higher than their predicted points total meaning anyone who gambled on them on our Premier League Points market would have been left quids in.

“This market is very popular with gamblers as you are not necessarily just betting on who will win the league or who will get relegated.

“Every team is given a points prediction which is updated as the season progresses meaning punters can bet on individual teams to do better or worse than our forecast, with the option of opening or closing bets at any point in the season to take winnings or cut losses.”

Other markets where bettors have put down big money include  Sunderland and Fulham to finish on 48 points or higher and West Brom to end the campaign with more than 44 points while Blackburn and Newcastle are predicted to find the season tough going.

As for who will win the league itself, punters are finding it hard to look past current Premier League champions Manchester United.

MacKenzie added: “United have won four titles in the past five years and our clients seem to think that dominance is going to continue.

“Punters have already backed them in from 2/1 to 7/4 to win the title and have been buying on the spreads their predicted points total of 79.5-81.

“We’ve had little interest in Chelsea, Arsenal or Liverpool, however, it seems our customers fancy Manchester City to finish with more than 76 points and to be United’s main title challengers this season.”

Spreadex’s Premier League Points Predictions 2011-12

Team                                                               Points

Man Utd                                                          79.5-81

Chelsea                                                            78-79.5

Man City                                                          74.5-76

Arsenal                                                              70.5-72

Liverpool                                                          69-70.5

Spurs                                                               61.5-63

Everton                                                            54-55.5

Villa                                                                 47-48.5

Fulham                                                         46-47.5

Stoke                                                               46-47.5

Sunderland                                                       46-47.5

Bolton                                                              43.5-45

Newcastle                                                        43.5-45

West Brom                                                       42-43.5

Blackburn                                                         39.5-41

Wolves                                                             39.5-41

Wigan                                                              37.5-39

QPR                                                                36.5-38

Norwich                                                           31.5-33

Swansea                                                           31-32.5

———————————————————————————-

Spreadex Free Bet

At Spreadex you can bet both normal fixed odds markets as per most bookmakers but they also offer spread betting too.

Click the link below to get a secret page free bet offer not found by their home page visitors.

Free £30 Bet With Spreadex

———————————————————————————-

.

The new soccer season is starting soon.

Perhaps it is time to do a bit of homework in advance?

If you were to speak to a builder he would warn you of the folly
of building a house without thought to the foundation.

Similar applies to the area of soccer betting.
If you can get the basics right, betting success is more likely to follow.

It helps of course to have a good teacher.
Someone experienced who knows what they are talking about when it comes to football betting.

What about a bloke who works as his day job acting as an odds compiler for a major bookmaker?
Think that bloke migth be a good bet to teach you something semi useful?

If so you are in luck as the football bets site is offering a free mini course where mr soccer odds
compiler passes on some of his key thinking to you.

Well worth a read .. It’s FREE

Find it here ==> Soccer Betting Tips <==

This is a small snippet from the mathematician racing message for today.

To read more about the mathematician service follow this link

==> horse racing tips <==

=====================================================

S a l i s b u r y   8.10

5/2 Undulant Way, 6/1 Reset City, 8/1 Albeed
8/1 Issabella Gem, 8/1 Sunny Future, 8/1 Tropical Bachelor
10/1 Baltimore Clipper, 10/1 Drawn Gold, 10/1 Now What
14/1 Ugalla.

* This is a 14f Handicap for 0-76 rated horses
* There are 116 similar races at this time of year
* Horses with 1 run this year struggled in 116 races
* No Mares have won with 1 run this year
* RESET CITY has that against her and isnt for me
* She is gambled and from a significant stable
* She could easily defy the stats and win this race
* I see a better option and I find her too riSky
* UGALLA also fails that and looks vulnerable
* ALBEED is a 4yo filly well beaten last time out
* Fillies aged 4 beaten 10 + lengths last time were 2-34
* None of these had 13 or more runs as she does
* ALBEED has a shaky profile
* TROPICAL BACHELOR has a chance but not for me
* Not when exposed and just two runs this season
* NOW WHAT is a 4yo filly absent over a month
* Those with 7 or more runs and that profile were 1-13
* That winner had more backclass than she does
* She isnt a negative but she is not for me
* UNDULANT WAY is a 3yo filly
* There are 3yo fillies winning these 14f races
* None however came from 11f or shorter
* UNDULANT WAY is not a negative
* She does have to do something no other 3yo filly did
* ISSABELLA GEM is a 4yo filly with 9 + runs
* Those coming from 14f or shorter won 5 races
* Only 1 had 1-2-3 runs that season like her
* She is not a negative but I wasnt too impressed
* She has the least experienced jockey in the race
* DRAWN GOLD is an exposed 7yo
* He only has 3 runs this season
* He lacks enough backclass to be a safe choice
* SUNNY FUTURE – Respectable and shortlistable

S e l e c t i o n

BALTIMORE CLIPPER only has a 0-73 class field
to beat. I think there is a good chance he could beat
this average Class 5 field. He won a better class race
as a 3yo. He was no worldbeater but he showed he is
at least good enough to win a race like this. He had
some problems last year with Ulcers but that’s now
behind him. I noted Paul Cole saying earlier in the
year that he had improved a lot over the winter. I
watched him enter and pull out of a few races with
the ground going against him. When he did race in
June had badly needed his seasonal debut. He then
went to Salisbury and ran much better. That was a
0-85 handicap much better than this and he wasnt
fit that had and was only beaten 4 lengths. He had
his 3rd run at Sandown. Starting 25/1 in a Classier
race than this he fiished 4th. He wasnt unlucky in
this race but he was hampered and ran on strongly
doing his best work late. He has improved on each
of his runs this year. Last time out swings it for me.
He started 18/1 on a Grade 1 track at Newbury. It
was a better class of race. KEYS won the race and
came out yesterday to win again. It was absolutely
no disgrace to finish 4th that day. He has ran well
enough to win this race on his last 3 starts. This is
a decent drop in class today. The ground looks ok
and has escaped the rain. He is a good age and has
a recent run. Given his price I feel he is a good bet.

Selection

BALTIMORE CLIPPER       Each Way

9/1 at many bookmakers including
BoyleSports , VC , William Hill , Sky, Bet365

The problem today is serious rain is coming and
said to be hitting everywhere. I have to produce
the message knowing that the ground will change
everywhere. There is no way of knowing just how
much rain there will be or when it will fall so this
is going to be the single biggest issue of the day.

It will mean lots more non runners later on top
of several already pulled out. Plenty of opinions
in lots of races today. Done what I can despite a
lack of knowledge about what will run. Its one of
those messages to slowly navigate through. Dont
be afraid to overrule some selections if evidence
later shows that to be sensible. The weather does
not make it safe or sensible to go with a strong
stake today.

Perhaps unpredictable as a race but the 4.30pm at
Ripon interested me. I wasnt convinced about the
favourite and I felt the bet was BLUE DEER as
an improver from a stronger stable with entries
all over the place and bred to appreviate softer
ground. I felt he was worth a bet around 11/2.

R i p o n  4.30

5/2 Arrivaderci, 6/1 Blue Deer, 17/2 Song Of Parkes
9/1 Decadence, 9/1 Eeny Mac, 10/1 Lady Platinum Club
12/1 Cottam Stella, 12/1 Gambatte, 12/1 Grazeon Again
12/1 Spinatrix, 14/1 Roman Ruler, 16/1 Bahamian Jazz
25/1 Ivy And Gold.

This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f. This race has 18
renewals and being a “Maiden” handicap its best seen
in isolation from other races. I didnt like the look of
favourite ARRIVADERCI as a 3yo filly coming from
a 5f race when inexperienced and having so few races
this season and I would look elsewhere. For the same
reasons I would also oppose COTTAM STELLA too.
No past winners of this dropped from a Mile or more
so SONG OF PARKES from 8f and DECADENCE as
a horse from a 10f race look vulnerable. These would
be my main negatives in an open looking races. I feel
LADY PLATINUM CLUB and EENY MAC have to
be seriously considered. So to does BLUE DEER who
comes from a good stable and a horse entered all over
the place this week.  EENY MAC who looks likely to
appreciate the drop in class and track and I was very
tempted by him but an inexperienced winnerless pilot
puts me off him. BLUE DEER looks the one to me.

Selection – BLUE DEER 6/1 bet 365
If that goes or 365 have limited you to penny stakes as they tend to do..
11/2 available at Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Sky

Live prices at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-07-16/ripon/16-30/betting/

==============================

This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

First Time Blinkers

With the flat season gathering pace, I have decided to look at horses that are blinkered for the first time. There are numerous ideas why horses are given blinkers to wear.

These include:

-         To try and get the horse to concentrate as some horses get distracted by the other runners in a race;

-         To help the horse break quickly from the stalls. Blinkers often have this effect when worn for the first time;

-         As a last resort to try and improve a horses’ performance.

What one should realise however, is that generally fitting first time blinkers is a negative rather than a positive. The data for this article is taken from the last 6 complete seasons – flat/all weather racing only. All profits are calculated to £1 level stakes at SP. It should be noted that I have included only runners that are wearing blinkers only (for the first time) – I have excluded runners who were wearing tongue ties also. For the record the combination of blinkered first time + tongue tie produce virtually identical strike rates and returns (from a much smaller sample).

Firstly let us look at the results of all runners wearing blinkers for the first time on the flat over the period of study:

Essentially therefore these runners win around once in every fourteen starts (roughly) for losses of just under 28 pence in the £. Not a great starting point from a betting perspective. However, let us break these stats down into different categories to see if we can either find better betting propositions, or ‘gilt-edged’ laying opportunities.

Age

The perception is that blinkers improve younger horses best, especially 2yos. Let us look at the results breakdown when split by age:

As we can see 2yos actually perform below the ‘norm’. Looking at the ages as a whole, there is no discernable pattern, although much older horses (8yo+) have done relatively well from a very small sample.

Digging deeper into the 2yo stats, I have broken down the data by number of career runs:

Two things that seem to stand out here are firstly that 2yos that have raced several times (7 or more), react to first time blinkers relatively well; secondly 2yos that are assigned blinkers on their 2^nd or 3^rd career start do extremely poorly in terms of strike rate. My guess is that there is an over-reaction to a poor debut run and the addition of blinkers actually makes things worse.

Market position

Generally the market is an excellent guide to the chances of each horse. Let us look at first time blinkered horses coupled with their market position:

At first glance the performance of favourites looks OK. However, when we take ALL flat favourites as a whole, the strike rate is around 30-31% with losses of only 6-7%. Hence, horses that start favourite when blinkered for the first time are not good betting propositions.

Race types

Let us break the data down now by specific race types:

Although the data is limited a combination of first time blinkers and an amateur rider looks one to avoid. Indeed of the 55 losers, only 3 got placed. I decided to look back further just to gather a bigger data set. I looked at first time blinkered runners in amateur contests from 1997 to 2004 – they fared poorly once again with just 3 wins from 104.

Maiden races have seen losses of around 42 pence in the £ which above the base figure of 27.6p. Auction maidens have provided the poorest results for first time blinkered runners with just 12 wins from 279 (SR 4.3%) for a loss of £151.06 (ROI -54.1%). Indeed, 2yo maiden Auction races are even worse with just 3 winners from 160 runners (SR 1.9%) for a hefty loss of £129.50 (ROI -80.9%).

Claiming races have seen close to a break-even situation despite a low strike rate of around 9%. Indeed if you exclude maiden claimers the strike rate rises to 9.3% and profits are made; albeit 9 pence profit for every £ wagered. However, it should be noted that these profit figures are essentially down to a few big priced winners and hence it is not an area where the backer can be confident to make a profit in the future.

Race distance

Let us break the data down now by race distance:

In general there does not seem to be any pattern here. I had expected longer races to produce slightly poorer results but this is not the case.

Turf v all weather

Horses wearing blinkers for the first time perform better on the all weather compared with turf. This could be due to the fact all weather racing is less competitive; or generally of lower grade. Whatever the reason, the stats are worth taking note of.

Jockeys

I decided to see if the experience of the jockey made a difference. The table below compares professional jockeys with claiming jockeys:

The figures seem to suggest the less experienced jockeys struggle when horses are blinkered for the first time. Losses close to 44 pence in the £ combined with a strike rate of under 5% means that one should swerve these jockeys under these circumstances.

Trainers

Some trainers have a better understanding of their animals than others so one would expect a real mix of results for first time blinkered runners. I have included all trainers that have saddled at least 30 horses with first time blinkers:

Sir Mark Prescott has excellent figures considering how poor these runners do in general – a better than 1 in 5 strike rate with profits of over 50 pence for every £ wagered. At the other end of the scale, Milton Bradley and Alan Berry have combined to produce 0 winners from 116 runners.

——————–

To conclude, horses blinkered for the first time are essentially poor investments. However, some are much worse than others as this article has hopefully highlighted. If nothing else, I suspect this article may save you from backing certain horses that have a very poor chance of winning. This should help your betting bank balance.

Dave Renham

=============================

Dave Renahm is a regular feature writer in the Racing And Football Outlook newspaper.  If you are more of an investor rather than gambler at your racing, more of his educational research work may be found online at www.PunterProfits.com and at www.racingtrends.co.uk

HINT: Both sites above will on occasion offer a free trial to sports betting blog subscribers. Why not Register Here for Free so you know when such a deal is available.

There is an interesting new source of free golf betting tips available this week.

Mark Price would describe himself as an experienced and succesful golf betting punter. He wishes to run a service at some point in the future.

In order to prove himself worth of doing that he will be posting FREE advice from now till 2012.

Follow the link below for more info.

Free Golf Betting Tips

Apache Glory won well for us last weekend at 6/1 advised.

Today there are a lot of short priced favourites in handicaps
I have made negatives today so it should be interesting.
I wont get them all right but there are several of these.
In the 2.30 at Ascot I think MACS POWER has a big
chance against a bad favourite. Although admittedly it
is a bit contradictory I think my negative RITUAL is
actually a sensible place bet at evens and I plan to go
for a place bet on him and win bet on MACS POWER
rather than the other option MACS POWER eachway.

A s c o t   2.30

5/1 Ritual, 7/1 Mac4s Power, 8/1 Dungannon
9/1 Piazza San Pietro, 10/1 L4ami Louis, 12/1 Johannes
12/1 R Woody, 12/1 Racy, 12/1 Secret Witness, 14/1 Baby Strange
14/1 Courageous, 14/1 Imperial Guest, 16/1 Lutine Bell 16/1 Mon Brav,
16/1 Singeur, 25/1 Edge Closer
25/1 Noble Citizen, 33/1 Below Zero, 33/1 Tamagin.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f
* RITUAL has a bad profile from a 5f race
* He is 4 and only has 1 run this season
* Horses from 5f races aged 4 were 0-32
* No horse came from 5f without 5 runs that year
* I will be surprised if Ritual wins this
* MON BRAV is a negative aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* RACY is a negative  aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* L4AMI LOUIS is wrong as a 3yo
* None won with under 7 runs or 4 this year
* L4AMI LOUIS doesnt have that and is weak
* BABY STRANGE – Wrong from a 5f race
* R WOODY is underraced for a 4yo with 13 + runs
* All similar 4 year olds needed 5 + runs that season
* COURAGEOUS – Needs more runs down from 7f
* JOHANNES – His age are weak and he isnt right
* PIAZZA SAN PIETRO – Can’t dismiss him but unsafe
* I’d be worried about the ground for him
* IMPERIAL GUEST – Wanted a better last run
* LUTINE BELL – Small chance but ground worries
* SINGEUR – I liked him more than his profile
* I Couldnt match him to any winners though
* DUNGANNON is 4 and won last time out
* The 4 year olds doing that did have more runs
* They had more runs that season as well
* If I am strict then DUNGANNON falls short
* SECRET WITNESS – Hard to read. Feels a big ask
* MAC4S POWER has to be a big positive
* I’d worry he is handicapped a bit too harshly
* Like his profile and he must go close

S E L E C T I O N

I have Ritual down as a negative but he is clearly a highly
regarded horse from outstanding connections. There lacks
a lot of strong profiles here as well and that tells me it will be too riSky to lay Ritual.
I am selecting an alternative but  it strikes me that with 4 places available
Ritual is going to be about 10/11 to 11/10 to be placed in the race and with  a
questionable field that may not be a bad price.
He could easily get beaten and place and the statistics to work out.
That seems a fair price to me.
It would even tempt me in a split stake bet with Ritual to place and MAC’S POWER being the main selecton in the race.

Coming in a touch now but 4/1 Mac’s Power available in several spots, Bet365, PaddyPower , Ladbrokes, VC etc

Guy Ward

=====================================

Guy Ward runs the well regarded in depth advisory service over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

News this week of a new FREE software tool.
I have seen it plugged in a few places already
but if you missed it here is the link

<== Free Racing Software  ==>

What it does is follow key daily racing info
and alert you in real time as to any important changes
such as non runners and jockey changes.

If out of the blue some tin pot jockey gets replaced
by Kieran Fallon you would want to know about
that ASAP would you not?

Such news is market shifting data that will impact
what you back or lay.
Trader types especially will benefit from knowing news fast.

Any Catches?

Well this software is free..you can take it an run.
You must register an email address to get it however.

Also the makers intend it as a demo of their skill at making
good racing software.
They have a new paid for racing bot they will of course
want to tell you about.

All fair enough I feel seeing as you get to keep the
free software.

Here is the link

<== Free Racing Software  ==>