Racing Tip For Lingfield from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

LINGFIELD has been abandoned and with it any realistic
chance of a bet today. That leaves us with only Southwell
and a small card of 6 races and very little choice today as
the weather has beaten every other meeting on the day.

Many of you will want a bet. Many will want to leave the
day alone and get some other things done. There is not an offical
bet today.

I have looked at all 6 Southwell races for Full Members
and have one up here on the free betting blog.
I will  leave it up to you whether you want to get involved. I
dont want to bother myself especially as non runners now
seem certain to damage most of these races presumably as
many stables are having travel problems.

I dont see why I shouldnt have a good chance in the 12.30
and 1.00pm races much as these are smaller fields. The big
factor in the 1.35pm is whether I can beat the favourite so
hard to know what my chances are there. The 2.05pm has
now been reduced to 7 runners and thats typical as I’d argue
possibly my most interesting bet was JOHANNESGRAY as
an each way bet around 5/1. Thats lost now but I still think he
is as good a bet as any on the day. I like my 2.40pm bet but
so do others and the price could have been better.
The last race has got under my skin and I am far from certain
I have got that right. Both non runners were big negatives so
things have conspired against me there and I feel week here.

Those that want several bets just follow the message through to
the end with small stakes. Those wanting one bet perhaps a win
bet on JOHANNESGRAY offers the best option as he is a
reasonably good price. Those wanting a day off wont be
missing anything and I wouldnt blame you for sweving things.

SOUTHWELL 2.05

Toteswinger Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 6f

11/4 Bonnie Prince Blue, 7/2 Silaah, 5/1 Dark Lane
5/1 Everymanforhimself, 7/1 Johannesgray
12/1 Yankee Storm, 14/1 Italian Tom, 16/1 Silver Wind.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-83 rated horses
* There are 101 similar races at this time of year

ITALIAN TOM has a better profile than you might think
as a 3yo from a 5f race but the only winner winning his age
had more backclass and he has all his wins at 5f and now has
a career high mark and he looks unsafe. SILVER WIND isn’t
running well enough at the moment and does not offer me enough
considering he has no Southwell form. I would have to take on
BONNIE PRINCE BLUE. Not a big negative at
all but there are better profiles. EVERYMANFORHIMSELF
is also avoided as no similar horse came from claimers and
he has no Southwell form. That is a very weak list of horses to avoid
and that tells me despite the small field its far too  open a race to take
a confident view in.

POSSIBLES

SILAAH is hard to read as an older horse coming from a 5f
handicap a few days ago. I ran his profile carefully and found all horses
with very close profiles had a 1-4 record with that winner having much
less weight. He is hard to decide about. The issue with DARK LANE
is that he has only had 2 runs this season. To my surprise I did find a 4yo
winner like him so I’d make him a Positive much as it doesnt feel ideal and
I should mention his draw. There has been 46 handicaps here this year
and only 1 winner came from stall 1 and its not an ideal draw.
JOHANNESGRAY can’t be ruled out and I found 1 similar 3 year
old winner coming from a 5f race. There is a chance YANKEE STORM
could win this as I have found  two similar winners. He has had many
chances to win here off similar marks but has failed. His only wins here
were in two grades lower and off lower marks so he might just find one
or two better treated at the weights these days. I have 4 shortlisted and
given the choice  JOHANNESGRAY looks the best option with less
to prove and more improvement.

Selection -  JOHANNESGRAY 5/1 VC

PunterProfits is a great site for thinking punters who appreciate the benefits of having lots of racing research work done for them.

Dave Renham has knocked up a few words below highlighting some of
the key things going on in the full member area now.

PS Note info at the bottom about the Christmas sale

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PunterProfits is an on-line betting
community where punters share racing systems, betting ideas, tips, research
and the like. The content is mainly horse racing, but football does get an airing,
as does greyhound racing and other sports.

At first glance the
website may look a little over-whelming, as there is so many options
and places to check out. However, it is fairly straight-forward once
you get your bearings as essentially it is a forum with numerous threads.
The forum is split in different sections – the busiest two are ‘Racing-
Daily Tips’ and ‘Racing – Systems, Ratings’. These two sections
have several threads that are on-going and updated each day. Most members
follow threads that suit their betting style, as well as following the
more profitable ones!

One of the impressive
aspects about the threads on PunterProfits is how often big priced winners
are found. For example:

25/11/2010 – on the
aw pacey thread Abulharith was tipped up going on to win at 50/1
and paying a massive 88.5 Betfair SP;

28/10/2010 – on the
October trainers thread Educated Evans was a selection winning at
a huge 66/1 and paying roughly double that Betfair SP at 132.47. This
horse was also flagged up on the NH Trainer Report thread.

9/10/2010 – on the
Pacey thread Tres Coronas won at 33/1 and paid a massive 86.49 on
Betfair SP;

8/10/2010 – on the
2 system to trial thread No Supper won at 33/1 (BSP 49.18)

30/9/2010 – on the

Sam Specials thread Dance and Dance won at 33/1 (BSP 50.0)

28/9/2010 – on the
Draw Biases thread, a tricast was landed producing a profit of £842.30
thanks to the 2^nd and 3^rd horses being priced
at 25/1 and 18/1 respectively. The bet was equivalent to a 36/1 winner.

30/7/2010 – on the
Sam Specials thread Joseph Henry was advised at 40/1 and won (SP
was 28/1 and BSP 46.54).

7/7/2010 – on the
Sam Specials thread Crown won at 50/1 paying 61.38 BSP.

21/6/2010 – on the Market Bias system

thread there was an incredible double with Blue
Aura winning at 25/1 (BSP 31.61) and half an hour later The Jailer winning
at 66/1 (BSP 94.57).

14/5/2010 – on the
Market Bias system thread Ginger Ted won at 40/1 paying a huge 107.53
Betfair SP.

Several big priced
winners show that these are not just flashes in the pan. One aspect
of betting that we encourage at PunterProfits is the need to find VALUE.
To make regular profits from betting there is not one single method
that works, but getting value about your selections is key. We emphasise
the need to use early prices and/or Betfair to enhance profits. As you
will see from the Betfair SPs above, there is a huge advantage to using
Betfair SP especially on big priced runners.

Let me now look at
some of the threads in the full member’s area at PunterProfits:

Terrys Lays

This thread has been our most
successful laying thread since it was launched in July 2007. To date profits
stand at £16,456 to £100 per lay; even at just £20 per lay profits stand at
an impressive £3291.20. The method revolves about laying Racing Post forecast
favourites and has made a profit in each of the four years we have been running
it. This year’s profit stands at about £5000 to £100 per lay.

Southwell breeding thread

This thread revolves
around the fact that Southwell favours certain horses that are influenced
in their pedigree by American breeding. This had been running since
January 2010 and after 90 selections profits stand at +33.62pts to SP;
39.89pts to BSP. Hence £20 per selection at BSP would have yielded
a profit of £797.80. Selections occur mainly in the winter months as
this is when the majority of all weather meetings at Southwell take
place.

Sam’s Specials

This thread started
on June 10^th 2010 and soon established itself as one of the
threads to follow. Sam looks at a variety of strong statistics each
day from which he makes his selections. By the end of November profits
stood at an impressive +192.74pts to advised prices; +153.16 using Betfair
SP at level stakes. At £20 per selection profits to advised prices
stand at a highly impressive £3854.80. No wonder he has a huge following.
He is not afraid to put up big prices and he started December in the
same vein as previous months with each way selection Ad Vitam finishing
2^nd at 80/1.

Saintmartin’s
Daily Selections

This thread is one
for those who like high strike rates. He uses a staking system to aid
profits and at the end of November profits stood at +72.23 points. The
staking plan is a sensible one which increases only small amounts after
a loser. A very consistent thread.

Pacey/AW Pacey/NH
Pacey

There are three separate
threads run by the same member all based on the idea of pace bias. All
3 are in profit at the end of November 2010. Often horses are decent
prices and this is definitely a thread where it is SO IMPORTANT to beat
SP because although SP profits are excellent at +44.46pts, BSP profits
stand a huge +155.87pts. At £20 this is a difference in profit of £2228.20
– now that is going to make a big difference to most people.

Going Going Gone

This is a relatively
new thread focusing on horses that has shown strong preference for certain
types of going. To the end of November this thread had nailed 8 winners
from 50 for a profit of +21.33 to SP (BSP profit +34.49). Winners have
been a mixture of prices from 5/6 to 25/1. Looks one to keep a close
eye on.

Market Bias system

This has wound up for the year
as it concentrates on the summer months. However, it will be back in May. In
2010 profits stood at +124.75pts; in 2009 profits were +40.18. At £20 per bet
therefore these two summers would have yielded a fantastic profit of £3298.60.
The selections tend to be at the higher end so it is a thread that requires
patience. However, as you may have noted above this thread had a 66/1 winner
and a 25/1 winner on the same day this year.

NH Trainer Report

This thread notes selections
connected with strong trainer trends that were highlighted in the National
Hunt Trainer Report. The National Hunt Trainer Report is a 122 page
report that you receive for free if you join the full member’s area.
This thread had noted numerous winners in the first couple of months
of the season including a 66/1 winner.

—-

As you can hopefully
see, this forum is surely the best in the business. Numerous threads
banging out winners on a consistent basis – and not just short priced
jollies either! Not only that, members are hugely supportive of each
other which is fantastic.

Not only do you get
some fantastic daily tips/bets, you also get much, much more. This includes:

1. Regular betting articles
– over 130 articles are free to view with virtually every topic you
can think of being addressed. For example favourites, sires, the draw,
pace bias, trainer stats, jockeys stats, recent form, betting in running,
placepots; exotic bets, etc, etc;

2. Free System checking
– if anyone has a system they want to check the results, but do not have the
capability, then Punter Profits is happy to have a look and see if we can check
it over past years for you. This could save you a lot of time not to mention
cash if it turns out to be a dud or if course it might quickly confirm you are
on to a winning approach

3. Regular Research Reports
– detailed racing research reports / booklets are collated and given to members
for FREE. Some reports run in to over 100 pages of detail. Topics explored include
Flat Trainers, NH Trainers, Favourites etc. ( you get to keep these big reports
even if you just upgrade for a short time )

—————————————————————————-

CHRISTMAS SALE

We like drinking beer.

If you give us £3 to buy a pint with, we will provide
you with full membership here for three weeks.

A very fair deal considering you get to keep the big research
reports even if you do not wish to remain a member after that.

Step 1 – Register a free account at
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Step 2 – Log In

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