FREE Favourites Report and Sale Week

PunterProfits is a site well respected for hard work and honest research.

Dave Renham there has just put up for download a great little FREE report
into favourites in uk flat racing.

Which trainer for example wins 43% of the time when his horse starts favourite?

Plus this trainer makes a profit at starting price of 21% of turnover.
There is sale week on at PunterProfits right now where for the price of a pint
you will get a whole lot more than the great free report mentioned above.

Rather than me re inventing the wheel here I am going to be lazy and tell you
to go read read the online version of the PunterProfits newsletter at
the link below.

You will read a bit more about why it might be a shrewd investment to fork
out £3

( would over 100 points profits in a single month be of any use to you? )
Also you will learn where to get the totally free favourites research report.

Here is the link ==> PunterProfits Sale Info

The football tip below is from Tammboy over at the football bets site.

Tammboy is an ex odds compiler for a major bookmaker.

Alsong with another ex boookmaker emploee phil and ex player manager Kevin he provides long term profitable football tips for members of the footballbets site.

To vit that site click here ==> football betting

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Welcome back to the weekly Scottish Selections email after the summer break. I’m always a little cagey at the start of a new season. In the scottish lower leagues there’s a lot of movement of players and tons of loan signings. I know a few of the people that run the clubs in the 2nd and 3rd divisions so I talk to them but results can be eratic in the first few games. My systems are heavy on statistics too and it takes a few weeks before I have enough data to be confident. For the first few weeks it’ll be question of 1star bets going on what my spies report but when the stats bed in, it’ll be full steam ahead and I’m very confident of another highly profitable campaign. I’ve been betting on the Scottish lower leagues since 2002 and every season’s been a winner!

This week:

SD1 Ross County WIN @ 6/4 (vs. Falkirk) – 1 star bet (Bet365, Paddy Power)

Analysis

Ross County vs. Falkirk

Last season’s cup run showed Ross County to be a team going places and a good start to the new campaign last week thumping new boys Cowdenbeath 2-0. They’ll be a team to follow this season, they have an excellent management team and I expect them to be challenging for the title come the end of the season. They take on Falkirk who continued miserable SPL form by losing to Dumbarton at home last week and look out of sorts still coming to terms with SD1. It’s often the case that it takes a while for the SPL relegation team to settle and Ross County can take advantage of this at 6/4.

The following is from Guy over at the mathematician site.

To visit his site click here  == > horse betting

The Saturday before the big festival at York and that means
Great St Wilfrid day at Ripon.
This year it will be run on soft ground like most of the races today.

I have tried to sort out the Great St Wilfrid a fascinating race today.
It’s a  tough sprint so wont be easy  to get right but as the major race today
I know many of you want an opinion on it.

RIPON 3.30

William Hill Great St Wilfrid (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Tajneed,  8/1 Rileyskeepingfaith 8/1 Tiddliwinks
12/1 Favourite Girl 12/1 Hitchens, 14/1 Midnight Martini
14/1 Signor Peltro  16/1 Advanced, 16/1 Johannes
16/1 Knot In Wood 16/1 Lowdown, 16/1 Pavershooz
16/1 Quest For Success 20/1 Damika, 20/1 Fullandby
25/1 Novellen Lad 40/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Great St Wilfred is a 0-105 handicap over 6f
* Ripon has had 18 renewals of this race
* There are 57 similar Class 2 handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time were 0-67
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more are interesting
* I looked at 57 similar handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths had a poor 4-365 record
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year doing that were 0-111
* JOHANNES – KNOT IN WOOD fail that
* HITCHENS -NOVELLEN LAD  also fail that
* Those beaten that far over 7f or more last time were 0-61
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more aged 3 are 0-37
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Unexposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 1-119
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Horses from 5f races has a 3-74 record
* None managed without a very recent run
* Horses from 5f without a run in 2 weeks were 0-28
* FAVOURITE GIRL fails that
* No filly came from a 5f like her anyway
* In 56 other races fillies from 5f races were 0-31
* PAVERSHOOZ also fails that
* In 56 other races horses from 5f needed a recent run
* Those absent more than 2 weeks were 2-109
* Those with 13 or more runs were 0-92
* PAVERSHOOZ fails that
* Exposed horses won 9 of the 18 renewals
* Those exposed and aged 5 were 0-76
* PAVERSHOOZ -NOVELLEN LAD fail that
* HITCHENS is also an exposed 5yo (0-76)
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* I see him having the worst draw as well
* Those exposed and carrying 8st 11lbs or less were 1-125
* FULLANDBY -NOVELLEN LAD -  PAVERSHOOZ fail that
* Exposed horses aged 8 or more won 1 renewal
* That horse had past Group form and 9 + runs this season
* He also ran within 7 days
* FULLANDBY looks underaced for an 8yo
* KNOT IN WOOD looks underaced for an 8yo
* I looked at 56 similar handicaps
* Exposed horses aged 8 were 3-101
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 0-65
* That reinforces negatives for FULLANDBY – KNOT IN WOOD
* Exposed horses from 6f handicaps were 5-153 in this race
* None of these were aged 4 (0-25) or 5 (0-46)
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH fails that aged 4
* No past winner came from an 8f race
* None did it in any of the 56 other races
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* 3 year olds won 2 races but none were Male
* 3yo Males are 0-28 in this race
* LOWDOWN fails that
* I looked at 3yo males in 56 other races
* They had a 1-93 record
* Those 3yo Males with 9 + runs were 0-64
* LOWDOWN looks opposable on that front
* 3 year olds with under 13 runs were 0-25 in this race
* MIDNIGHT MARTINI fails that
* In 56 other races 3yo fillies with under 13 runs were 1-17
* That winner was slightly different coming from a 3yo handicap
* I wouldnt entirely rule her out though
* Horses aged 7 or more had a 3-73 record
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 0-33
* I looked at 56 similar races for 7 year olds
* Horses aged 7 and older were 7-213
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 2-196
* None had 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* JOHANNES fails that and has just 4 runs
* ADVANCED  fails that and has just 4 runs
* TAJNEED  fails that and has just 4 runs

SHORTLIST

* MIDNIGHT MARTINI is just shortlistable
* DAMIKA is 7 years old but shortlistable
* He has a recent run and is fit enough with backclass
* TIDDLIWINKS is an unexposed 4 year olds
* 4 year olds with 13-20 runs and a run in 2 weeks did well
* Those beaten under 3 lengths were 3-8
* Those from 6f handicaps are 2-6
* These 3 horses all have that profile
* TIDDLIWINKS has that profile

THE DRAW

* Since 2006 Ripon has 23 of these races with 13 + runners
* The recent winners came from these stalls
* 6 13 15 10 15 11 11 14 11 10 5 11 12 22 15 4 3 12 6 15
* Horses draw 1-2 had a 0-46 record
* Horses drawn 16 or more had a 1-55 record
* That clearly shows a middle draw is best

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

DAMIKA 20/1 looks overpriced and underestimated
( now best priced 18/1 CanBet VC Bet365 )

TIDDLIWINKS 10/1  Bet365 Ladbrokes Skybet

For best current odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-14/ripon/15-30/betting/

I think Tiddliwinks  has the outstanding profile. He made massive
improvement on the sand a year ago which has left him
well handicapped on Grass. He hasnt won yet on turf but
I dont see that as important as his last 2 runs show there
is serious ability on Grass. His last 3 runs were interesting.
He wont have been fit at York in July.
He did nothing at all wrong at York in the Skybet Dash when 4th
when he still might have needed the run.
Last time at Goodwood he had a horrible draw and still managed a creditable 4th.
The ground is an issue as he is not proven on soft ground but he has not
shown he doesnt handle it.
His Dam won on soft and placed on Heavy.
His father won on softer ground and has bred many that have done as well.
I’d risk it as I dont see a better profile in this race.

Some thoughts on Newmarket 2.05 today from Guy over at Mathematician Betting

==========================

I have previewed ten races today for full members.

For full service joining info See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

One of them I will pop up on the free blog.

NEWMARKET 2.05

Bbag-sales.de Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 1m2f

2/1 Psychic Ability, 11/2 Rumble Of Thunder, 13/2 Abergavenny 13/2 Spanish Duke,  Kindest, 10/1 Putra One, 12/1 Geneva Geyser 14/1 Bollin Dolly,16/1 Ramona Chase 40/1 All Annalena.

This is a complicated 10f Handicap. There are only 34 of these Class 2 handicaps in August. They’ve all gone to horses younger than BOLLIN DOLLY. My problem with PSYCHIC ABILITY  is having 1 run this year something no horse like him managed to do. I think the following statistic puts this in its right context.

* August has had 824 Handicaps at Every Distance
* Thats 824 races at any Distance in Class 2 and Class 3
* I looked at 3 year olds with 1 run this season
* There was a 3-67 record in these 824 races
* 1 of these came from a Group Class race so ignore that
* Those that had No Group class form were 2-52
* None of them won last time out (0-8)
* None of then won at shorter than 12f (0-42)
* Those with 8st 12lbs or more were 0-36
* Those with Under 5 career starts were 0-29
* That included 7 beaten favourites
* PSYCHIC ABILITY fails all these angles

I think the above statistics show it should be wise to try and get an alternative to PSYCHIC ABILITY who has after all got some Cheekpieces after just 3 runs. RUMBLE OF THUNDER is 4 and  has over 12 career starts and no 4 year old that esposed managed  to win with under 4 runs that season. I think he would have been Far better with another run. ALL ANNALENA also fails that as well. Horses aged 4 with 1-2-3 races this season need to be very  lightly raced and to have had form in Class 2 or higher. All those
that won also finished 1-2-3 last time out and failing those angles  is PUTRA ONE who may lack the backclass to win.

The 34 races show fillies having a 1-34 record and KINDEST is  not going to find this easy when you consider it’s a Handicap in Class 2 and she has never been out of a Class 4 race yet. She has benefitted from the rain but this is a step up in class for her. To  win a Class 2 Handicap you want recent form. The horses beaten  over 10 lengths last time were just 1-109 which puts me against RAMONA CHASE who was hammered last time. Horses aged 3 coming from 3yo handicaps have won these races.  However it is interesting None of them came from 12f races. None of them had an absence of more than a month and none had under 4 runs
that year. SPANISH DUKE has all of those factors against him.

* August has seen 286 Class 2 Handicaps at every distance
* Horses from 3yo handicaps when absent over a month are 4-79
* Those with 7 or more runs had a 0-47 record
* SPANISH DUKE has 9 runs and absent 63 days
* I think he is too exposed for a 3yo
* Especially facing a very unpleasant absence.

GENEVA GEYSER is 4 and has 4 runs this season and I see him  having too much weight for a 4yo with just 4 runs this year and  10st and he fails to make the shortlist.

SELECTION

ABERGAVENNY comes from a 3yo handicap but he has the
recent run and all the right backclass and is lightly raced and  thats a good profile and I dont see a better option. There is a question mark about the ground but there is no obvious reason why he should not appreciate it. I like ABERGAVENNY.

6/1 available widely including Betfred, Bet365, Ladbrokes

7/1 Betfair

check currest best odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-07/newmarket/14-05/betting/

Guy

Uk Horse Racing Favourites Research

Many love backing favourites for good reason.

They win more races than 2nd favourites and 3rd favourites etc.

Just blindly backing favourites alone however will not make you cash.

You need to know which favourites to back and which to avoid.

Dave Renham has just released a free research document that is very much worth your attention.

Favourites typically win 30% of the time.

Which trainer however wins with 43.9% of his runners when they go off favourite?

Find that out and a lot more in Dave’s excellent FREE flat racing favourites report.

To get your copy click here == > Flat Racing Favourites

ROI In Horse Racing

I received a question from someone new to betting on horses.

They had seen me refer to ROI and wondered what that meant.

Quite simply ROI stands for Return on Investment.

It is a way to measure the profitability of a set of betting selections
whether they be your personal picks, system selections or a tipsters tips.

A complete mad gambler is unlikely to care about such things.
If however you have a more investor style attitude to your betting
ROI figures give you a very good measure as to whether a method is worth following or not.

Let’s do a few quick examples.

Example 1:

Assume you place 100 bets of £100 each

The total you have invested is 100 * £100 = £10,000

For arguments sake let’s say your bets do well and the total return to you is £12,000

( ie £10,000 original stake and £2000 profit )

Your Return on Investment ( ROI ) is therefore £12000 / £10000 = 1.2

Normally this is expressed as a percentage

As a percentage 1.2 is 120%

Example 2:

This time let us assume the betting has not been so good and has lost some money.

Again we have 100 bets of £100 each for a total investment of £10,000

The return this time is less than staked.

We only get £7000 back.

So ROI = £7000/£10000 = 0.7

Or expressed as a percentage 70%

From the above you can see that the breakeven mark is at the line of 1.0 or 100%

ROI above 100% is good
Below it is bad

Profit on Turnover

POT or Profit on Turnover is an alternate measure of betting profitability.

Here we look at net profits as opposed to net return   ( return includes original stake )

Using the same data from the two examples above

1 – POT = £2000 / £10000 = 0.2 or 20%

2 – POT = -£3000 / £10000 = -0.3 or -30%

Note how when using POT 0% is the line of breakeven.
Also note that POT can be positive or negative.