Chester 2.25

BERTOLIVER 5/1 William Hill

For best live odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2009-08-22/chester/14-25/betting/

Win Bet

Just one selection on BERTOLIVER at Chester. Feels like a
subdued Saturday with less Racing and some smaller fields and in an attempt to find my best bet at decent odds there were not many options and only one horse that came close to being a bet and that’s BERTOLIVER. There are issue at Chester over 5 furlongs like the start and how fast they go and there is also a false rail there today so plenty of factors in this race that we can not be sure about but I think I’ve made a good enough case for BERTOLIVER to be worth a bet around 5/1 and the race has plenty of negatives as well which should increase his chance.

CHESTER 2.25

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-85) 5f16y

7/2 Glamorous Spirit, 9/2 Bertoliver, 6/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 7/1 Invincible Lad, 7/1 Tyfos, 10/1 Le Toreador, 12/1 Misaro, 14/1 Supermassive Muse, 16/1 Rasaman, 20/1 Total Impact, 33/1 Methaaly, 33/1 Sands Crooner, 33/1 Stolt.

This is a 5f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. Chester has had 34 of these races in August and September and there has been 497 similar handicaps elsewhere. GLAMOROUS SPIRIT has to go as a 3yo filly from a 3yo handicap. In 497 races there were just three Fillies who managed to win with that profile. Of these 3 fillies none had a weight she has or were beaten as far as she was last time and none were as exposed as She is. GLAMOROUS SPIRIT has 15 runs. Look at 3yo fillies with 13 or more runs from 3yo handicaps and since 1993 you see a 0-57 record. The problem in this race is that every runner has a recent race and is well raced and the strength in depth is enormous. RASAMAN does not appeal as horses from 6f claimers were miserable. I suppose that as Chester has had 34 handicaps in the last 3 seasons at 5 furlongs and that stalls 11 or more were 0-56 we should throw out the high drawn horses so METHAALY is rejected as is SANDS CROONER – STOLT and TOTAL IMPACT as well. SUPERMASSIVE MUSE won this last year and was well beaten last year before this race just as he is this year. The difference for me now is he is exposed now and doesnt have the same preparation and I ran his profile through 497 races and no horse like him won. Exposed 4 year olds beaten 10 lengths or more last time like him were poor and those without at least nine runs that season were 0-76 so he isnt for me. I dont fancy TYRANNOSAURUS REX. When he won here in June it was a Career best. He has to better than today in a better class race from a higher handicap mark and I dont see him doing that from a stable that are really struggling and when he may have gone off the boil himself. MISARO needs close to a career best and he may pop up but he is getting on now as an 8 year old and his last win came against “seniors” aged 6 or more in a much lower class race and the percentage call is that he will probably find something faster. TYFOS has stall 1. Very complicated sort of profile as a 4 year old down in trip with an intermediate sort of absence.

Statistically he did enough to get on a shortlist but I wasnt impressed enough. I felt he wanted a more recent run and he lacks backclass and that worries me. After all every other horse in this race has ran in a higher grade before than TYFOS has and you can ignore that for lightly raced horses but he has 16 runs now. Thrown in the fact he was outpaced and beaten the only time he ran at Chester over this trip and he doesnt have any other runs at 5f and when you consider the Dam won over hurdles and in a Bumper you wonder where he will get the speed for a race over 5 furlongs. I am not sold on his chance

SHORTLIST

BERTOLIVER -LE TOREADOR  -INVINCIBLE LAD

LE TOREADOR has an excellent chance and excellent profile
and ran much better than it looked last time but his problem is probably Stall 8 and how much luck he gets from that. Take the last 17 handicaps here over 5f. In these 17 races 16 of the 17 to win were drawn lower than Stall 8. LE TOREADOR will have to have some luck to win. INVINCIBLE LAD ran really well last  time at Goodwood and if he repeats that he could well win. My only worries here are no form at Chester and a Career high mark. He has a habit of starting slowly and thet wont help him here and he is riSky.

SELECTION

BERTOLIVER is well treated and he looks likely to burst out and try and make all. Whether he folds like he did last time at Newbury or not is another matter. It may have been a bit soft for him last time as he wants it fast and he does love it here so everything looks placed for a serious run from the front and he should trade low in running. He looks a win bet. Phillip Robinson is an eye catching booking and this looks his race.

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

2PTS Crystal Palace to beat Newcastle in the Championship

21/10 PaddyPower or 2/1 Coral, BoyleSports and Bet365

(Saturday 22^nd August, 3.00pm KO)

After a summer of turmoil, Newcastle have surprised many people by making a positive start to the season. The Geordies have picked up seven points from their opening three fixtures in an unbeaten start. However, the off the field circus shows no signs of leaving town and it can only be a matter of time before results on the pitch begin to suffer. The exodus of “star” players continues as Damien Duff this week followed Michael Owen, Mark Viduka, Obafemi Martins, Sebastien Bassong and Habib Beye out of St James’ Park. Steven Taylor is supposedly in talks with Everton at the time or writing and he too looks to have played his last game for the club. It must be extremely difficult for caretaker boss Chris Hughton to keep morale up as the uncertainty and exodus continues, with only two weeks left to bring in any replacements. Whilst Newcastle are likely to carry on picking up points at home, I think they will carry on from last season where they struggled badly on the road, winning just two away games. Every supporter of a Championship club will have their club’s home fixture against Newcastle in the diary and they will be seen as a major scalp.

Crystal Palace should be the proud owners of an unbeaten record so far this season but I’m sure you are all aware of what went on last weekend at Ashton Gate. For those of you who may have been away, Palace basically scored the opening goal yet the referee somehow decided it had gone wide and ruled it out. To add insult to injury, Bristol City then grabbed a last minute winner to leave colourful Eagles boss Neil Warnock foaming at the mouth. However, Palace bounced back mid week with an impressive win at Ipswich and are well capable of following that up with another victory over Newcastle. Neil Warnock has several of the most promising youngsters in the Championship in his squad and names such as Nathanial Clyne, Lee Hills, Victor Moses and Sean Scannell are likely to become familiar to fans of Premiership clubs before too long. They also have England U21 forward Freddie Sears on a season long loan from West Ham. Warnock seems to have put together a decent blend of youth and experience and Julian Speroni, Clint Hill, Darren Ambrose, Shaun Derry and Alan Lee have all been around the block and will offer guidance to the club’s youngsters. I don’t think there will be too many opportunities to back Palace at 2/1+ at home this season and they have a far better chance than the odds suggest in my opinion.

The Oracle

To visit the oracle’s site click here ==> Soccer Betting Tip

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VALUE OUTSIDERS

1PT Bristol Rovers to beat Stockport in League one 2/1 Coral or 9/5 PaddyPower and B365

(Saturday 15^th August, 3.00pm KO)

We hit the bar backing the other Bristol side last week but hopefully Rovers will be capable of holding on to a 2-0 lead with less than ten minutes of normal time remaining. Sorry, I’m still a bit bitter about last week as you can probably tell. In all seriousness, I think Rovers look a good bet at a nice price on Saturday. Under normal circumstances, you wouldn’t usually be rushing to back a side that had just sold their twenty nine goal top scorer from the previous season. However, although the departure of Ricky Lambert is an obvious blow to Bristol Rovers, I think that they have capable replacements in Duffy and Kuffour, both of whom managed double figures last season. They will be eager to take their chance to build a reputation for themselves and persuade manager Paul Trollope that he doesn’t need to go and spend a lot of money on another striker. Rovers are a decent league one side and have benefited from a board that has kept faith with a young manager. Paul Trollope is beginning his fifth season at the Memorial ground and he has built a useful team with minimal resources. Trollope is actually the second longest serving manager in the division and the tenth longest serving manger in the country, which is some achievement considering the modern day craziness that sees managers sacked one game into a new season?

The main reason for this bet however, is that Stockport County just have to be opposed right now and a 2/1 quote from Coral was just too big to miss out on. Stockport were placed into administration at the end of last season and are still struggling badly. They punched above their weight for much of last year but have since lost manager Jim Gannon along with most of their best players in McNulty, Dicker, Rowe and Pilkington. There have been no new arrivals of any note over the summer apart from manager Gary Ablett. I am not convinced Ablett is going to be the man for the job at all and his record is far from inspiring. He has never managed in the football league and has just a spell as a youth coach at Everton and a stint as Liverpool reserve manager on his CV. He was only available after Liverpool terminated his contract at the end of last season.

Ablett has a very limited squad to work with and no money for new players. In a situation like this you need experienced players to see you through, yet Stockport have probably got the most inexperienced squad in the football league. The twelve players Ablett used at Oldham last week had an average age of just twenty two. Eight of them were under twenty three and the oldest player was just twenty seven. Although they left Boundary Park with a point last week, this was thanks to a man of the match performance from goalkeeper Fon Williams and was followed up by a 3-1 cup defeat at Huddersfield. The Hatters look nailed on for relegation and I will be looking to oppose them as often as prices allow. Paul Trollope seemed confident of getting a win in his pre match interview and I have to agree with him:

“Stockport are in a little bit of transition with a new manager and I’m sure Gary is trying to mould things how he’d like them – although that can take a little bit of time.

“We are confident that if we can produce the football we’re capable of and defend right, we can win the game.”

The Oracle

To Visit The Oracles site click here ==> Football Betting Tips

Dave Renham

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

RIPON 2.45

EUROPEAN BREEDERS´ FUND FILLIES´
HANDICAP(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-80)1m1f170y

7/2 Antigua Sunrise, 7/2 Cascata, 9/2 Atabaas Allure,
9/2 Cwm Rhondda, 7/1 Kaloni, 8/1 Sparkling Crystal,
10/1 Island Music, 20/1 Tres Froide, 33/1 Shosolosa.

This is a Fillies Handicap just short of 10 furlongs. I have looked at the 12 renewals of this race and all 44 similar races in August. My negatives are these. CASCATA has to go with 3 runs and just a couple this year. I couldnt find a winner who had a similar profile.  CWM RHONDDA wouldnt be my first  choice as older horses with absences struggled and I didnt like  her profile. ISLAND MUSIC and TRES FROIDE would also  be negatives as well as no 4 year old came up in trip from an  8f race last time out. SHOSOLOSA is outclassed and I would  avoid these five horses in this race. This leaves a shortlist of Four. I felt they were all interesting in one way or another
without being exceptional but if I had to pick two it would be ANTIGUA SUNRISE and ATABAAS ALLURE

ATABAAS ALLURE has just come from Goodwood when
she couldnt dominate a Class 2 handicap. I dont mind that
as she was hardly beaten far and its a race that has provided a past winner of this race before and her form stands up to scrutiny. I see her trying to make all here and on a front runners track she may be able to run these into the ground.

I think ANTIGUA SUNRISE is a slightly better horse but
is she a better horse at short of 10 furlongs ? She won two on the bounce in May and June and looked progressive. It  was no surprise she lost two runs ago stepped up in trip when  statistically weak and running over a trip thats beyond her.  She ran very well last time out considering she was a big negative coming down half a mile in trip. Her runs at this  trip all came before her improvement and whilst its probably a bit on the short side I think she will cope with it but its not a front runners track and ATABAAS ALLURE could well have flown and could be hard to catch.

SELECTION

ATABAAS ALLURE 5/1 each way

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tip

I have gone with IMPERIAL SWORD at Ayr.
To be honest if I had complete faith in the Trainer and could rely on the fact
he is doing his best I might have upgraded him as a bet. Its a very hard yard to read though.
IMPERIAL SWORD was 2nd in this race last year and should have won.
Ran well last time. He will probably be in last place 3 furlongs out and will come late.
Happy enough with the 8/1 but I know we are taking a risk with the stable.

AYR 5.50

CHAMPAGNE G H MUMM GRAND CRU APPRENTICE
HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) 6f

4/1 Hitches Dubai, 9/2 Botham, 9/2 Downhill Skier,
11/2 Feeling Fresh, 7/1 Imperial Sword, 10/1 Thunder Bay,
12/1 Almost Married, 12/1 Liberty Trail, 25/1 Coconut Moon, 33/1 Forrest Star.

* 317 Similar low grade handicaps at this time of year
* Only seven of the 317 winners came from Maidens
* Those that came from 5f maidens were 0-42
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that
* Horses aged 4 from maidens were 0-28
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that as well so he is avoided
* ALMOST MARRIED is a negative
* He won last years race but not with just 1 run and 81 days off
* FEELING FRESH has a poor profile in my view
* Horses from 8f or more with 3 or less runs that year are 2-78
* None did it with 13 or more runs
* FEELING FRESH fails that and looks opposable
* THUNDER BAY has a poor profile
* FORREST STAR – COCONUT MOON are out of form mares
* LIBERTY TRAIL has an unsafe profile
* All the above horses are negatives
* DOWNHILL SKIER is drawn 1 and I dont like that
* The last 12 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* 11 of the 12 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* He beat IMPERIAL SWORD last time out
* IMPERIAL SWORD was second in this race last year
* He was also unlucky in running
* BOTHAM is well drawn and has no obvious flaws
* I prefer IMPERIAL SWORD and Botham

SELECTION

IMPERIAL SWORD

Blog Comment was 8/1 or more earlier
Now 7/1 Betfred, Corals , Tote

Guy Ward

The Mathematician

to visit guys site click here => free horse racing tips

The Market Bias Racing System is one from the betting think tank over at PunterProfits.com

It is an approach currently being monitored on the full member forums over there.  Its early days in the testing but it is doing well so far with a decent level stakes profit.

The general concept of is was to use historical research to indentify race situations where the outsider / long shots had a better than anticipated strike rate.

Forecast odds price bands are used to group horses into groups of fancied, middled odds & Outsiders. ( hence the Market Bias name tag )

There is also a filter based on horse age as this proved important in the historical research.

And remember the choice of race type / course etc is based on historical research.

So quite simply the system tells you..

1 -this particular race falls into a long term past profitable category for outsiders.

2 – the horse falls into the desired age band. ( its not too inexperienced or to past it )

3 – these are the horses today from that race that fit the price band.

Most often there may be two or so per race.

Overall its an interesting approach.

I think the ideal place to back these horses is Betfair.

Betfairs 20% better than SP big public quote is a bit misleading.

The reality is that short odds horses there go off very close to SP.

Long shots however on Betfair very often pay out well in excess of 20% above SP ( or any early bookmaker price )

Any how the selections for today are as follows

4.25 hayd
Atlantic Beach
Flying Applause
Jack Rackham

5.00 hay
Kashimin
Supermassive Muse

Nb there is quite a bit going on over at PunterProfits.com

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See their contact page and email the admin email address quoting the free trial for sports betting blog viewers and you will get free trial join instructions sent back to you.

To go to their site now  click here ==> Horse Racing Systems

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