The racing system bets below come from a system called The 50% System.
So called as the strike rate going back over years of research has been .. you guessed it, 50%.
This is one of the systems monitored over at www.PunterProfits.com
50% SYSTEM -
2.45 Bev ORPEN ARMS
5.10 Newm SEAWAY
5.45 Catt WINGED HARRIET
Saturday Football Tips From Football Bets
1pt Aston Villa to beat Newcastle in the Premiership, 7/5 Bet365, Coral (Sunday 24th May 4pm ko)
If Newcastle do not take at least a point away from Villa Park on Sunday, they will be relegated.
It is a game they cannot afford to lose.
However, as is so often the case at this time of year, the prices have moved far too much and
do not accurately reflect the true chances of each outcome.
Consequently, there is value to be had in backing the home team.
Villa’s form in the second half of the season has been terrible.
They were six points ahead of Arsenal in fourth place back in March but now lie ten
points behind them in sixth. They have also won just one of their last five matches. However,
Aston Villa still have more than enough quality to beat a very poor Newcastle side.
Had this game been played six weeks ago then Villa would be long odds on and 7/5 about a
home win is a very big price. Although Villa have little to play for, they will still want to win their
final home game and can still finish fifth above Everton, which would represent progress on last season.
Newcastle have won just twice on the road all season and have scored just two goals in their last five away games.
They have wasted chances to pull clear of the drop zone at home to Portsmouth and Fulham recently
and this is a far harder task. Newcastle’s record against top half opposition has also been dreadful this season.
In nineteen fixtures they have won just twice and both of those were home games.
The Geordies are missing several important players for this fixture too.
The absence of full backs Beye and Enrique will be especially difficult to deal with as
they have no natural replacements. Beye in particular has been an important player for
Newcastle and they have won just one of twenty four fixtures without him.
There is a twenty five point gap between these two sides in the table and just because
Newcastle need the points more than Villa do, does not justify a price of 7/5 about a home win.
Minimum price to take – 11/10
To visit The Oracles Site Click Here ==> Football Betting Tips
No Firm Selections today but I have jotted down a few thoughts on
the meeting at Catterick
Best Live Odds available at the link below
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/today
===============================================
C A T T E R I C K
The Selling race at 2.30 looks nasty.
Statistically the problem is these races are very rare.
There has only been 5 selling races in May over 11f – 13f in the last 15 years
so we are partially blind to what it takes to win a race like this.
Throw in some really confusing profiles and much more strength in depth that
you normally see in these races and it looks hard.
I would be against the horses with absences such as EVELITH REGENT MAYADEEN and SAGUNT.
Several here look more than good enough to win a race like this.
My best guess would beTERMINATE around 7/1 as he comes here from winning
a handicap. He has a recent run. He will appreciate the drying ground and brings
form and fitness into the race. Its an open contest though and stakes would need to be low
I would have to go with DIAMOND BLADE in the maiden
at 3pm but have a saver on CAVITIE in the race. His main
market rival (Fashion Icon) is a filly that couldnt place in a seller last time.
You then have Positivity who was beaten 33 lengths just 8 days ago and surely
thats too far a defeat to overcome too soon for a filly like her who hasnt proved
she has trained on. Fifth Amendment was also hammered on his debut this year.
I dont understand why DIAMOND BLADE isnt odds on.
He looks a big price to me around 5/4 and 11/8.
He may be one of those where if he starts evens or shorter he will win but if he
drifts to a price like 7/4 that he shouldnt be then you would be quite worried.
All things being equal I feel DIAMOND BLADE looks like he only has to run his race to win.
CAVITIE could be the saver. Upgraded stables recently. Well backed at 20/1 and 25/1.
He is experienced like most of the past winners of this race were.
He drops from 6f which looks a sensible mood.
After the market move I watched him on video
and I can see why some are taking fancy prices and he could well be the biggest threat to the favourite.
I gave up on the 3.35 handicap as the angles were not there.
I wouldnt have gone with TURN ME ON taking on better
class horses.I wouldnt have gone with LADY RANGALI
as a filly first time out as no similar filly won a similar race.
I wasnt keen on SUNRISE SAFARI either exposed and up in distance.
MALCHEEL isnt for me either. I couldnt see any more half decent negatives
and didnt feel I have enough to take a strong view about the race.
VHUJON looks the best option in the 4.10 race with a 2 day
break having won on Thursday. He brings form and fitness
into the race. I wasnt convnced GRAZEON GOLD BLEND
or DIG DEEP did enough on their seasonal debuts. I dont
know whether WYATT EARP will have reached his peak
fitness either with just two runs this year for an 8 year old.
EL DECECY comes down from 10f to 6f and that looks a
horrible task. I didnt fancy MR WOLF as horses aged 8 or
more that had under 3 runs that year had a 3-155 record and
those that ran within 2 weeks were 1-80 and none lost by as
far as he did last time. With KASHIMIN absent 287 days
and JOHANNES also lacking a run I would have to go with
VHUJON. I respect BONNIE PRINCE BLUE but he has
just 1 run this year and VHUJON will be race fitter and I
see VHUJON as having the best chance. He may well be a
horse to consider in an each way double.
WINGED HARRIET looks a banker in the 6f Maiden and
whilst she is odds on I couldnt see her losing that race.
The last race at 5.15pm is a mess.
Best Wishes
Guy
A free tip below cortesy of www.PunterProfits.com
It comes from their NH Portfolio horse racing system
( a system with many many years of past profitable years )
SYSTEM D
Ban3 3.20 – Buckland Gold
Best Odds around as I type are about 13/2 on Betfair
Want to bet each way then consider 11/2 PaddyPower or VC
Bookmaker Cash Back Offer
There is some major news this week on the bookmaker front I wanted to
make sure you were all aware of.
Coral have introduced quite an enticing cash back offer.
Each month you make a net loss with them on all sportsbook and gaming action
( excludes poker and any other peer to peer bets )
They will give you 10% of your net losses back.
See here for full details. ==> Coral
NB this is not just an offer for new account holders.
You can get this cash back if you already have a Coral account.
IMPORTANT
If you already have an account with them you need to opt in for this offer.
Do that now if you have not done so already by clicking here ==> Coral
Also if you open a new account with them, again opt into the 10% refund offer after you set up your account.
Also Note …
Bookmaker CanBet also offer a rebate on monthly losses
Pros of the CanBet offer .. they give 25% back which is obviously better than Corals 10%
Cons of CanBet
the rebate is restricted to losses only on UK and Irish horse racing ( whilst Coral is any sports and gaming too )
You have to manually claim it at the end of each month by logging in and entering a code into your account.
Once you opt into the Coral scheme rebate cash if due will automatically be placed into your account
which is obviously a much more punter friendly approach that cuts out the possibility of you forgetting to claim a refund due to you.
The CanBet rebate is limited to 8% of total stakes
You also need 25 settled bets each month on CanBet totalling at least £100
So as you can see CanBet do of course offer a significantly higher percentage if your focus is horse racing.
It would be nice however to see them cut out some of the hoops and hurdles and automate the crediting of your account each month if you are due cash.
Overall I think I have to applaud Coral for this losses rebate introduction.
It will put pressure on some of the other bookmakers to start thinking about how they too can offer something more attractive to us punters.
Best wishes
Sports Betting Blog
Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip from The Mathematician
To Visit his site click here ==> Horsre Racing Tips
NEWMARKET 1.50
SIGN UP BONUS AT BetInternet.com
MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 4) (3yo) 1m
2/1 Invisible Man, 3/1 Merdaam, 4/1 Present Alchemy, 7/1 Kapsiliat, 10/1 Secret Life, 12/1 Bourne, 12/1 Moojeh, 14/1 Kimberley Rocks, 20/1 Bengal Tiger, 33/1 A Lot Of Red, 33/1 Kilkenny Bay, 66/1 Cake Stand, 66/1 Inside Trade, 66/1 Laminka, 66/1 Supera.
Not a lot to say in the Opening maiden. I think I would have to go down the Each Way double route and consider that the best horse to do that with is INVISIBLE MAN. In the last 7 renewals of this race 4 winners were unraced shocks at double figure prices so much as you can see 20/1 bar 3 and assume it is a race full of unfancied horses its rarely as simple as that and I think the each way double makes sense. I have chosen INVISIBLE MAN as the selection as I was concerned about his main rivals. MERDAAM could be being handicapped on his 3rd run and KAPSILIAT is a filly from a 6f race and just one career run. I’d be inclined to oppose her especially from a low draw. INVISIBLE MAN may not win but he is likely to place. There were 24 horses starting favourite in all similar races with 3 or more runs as INVISIBLE MAN has and 20 of the 24 that tried placed or won. That suggests to me the saftest bet here is INVISIBLE MAN in an each way double. My best suggestion as the second leg is Riggins in the 2.20 at Newmarket who should go very close as well.
Guy Ward
To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horsre Racing Tips
Saturday Football Bet
1pt draw between Caen and Sochaux in French Ligue One
11/5 Stan James, Totesport and William Hill (Saturday 16th May 6pm ko)
We had a lot of success earlier in the season backing draws in France and this is another game that fits the bill. Thirteen out of Caen’s thirty five matches this season have finished in draws (37% = 17/10). Sochaux have drawn twelve out of thirty five (34% = 15/8). Backing draws blindly in Caen and Sochaux games at around the 2/1 mark would clearly be a profitable strategy. When two such teams meet the chances of a draw seem to be further increased and the last three meetings between these two sides have all resulted in draws. Odds of 11/5 suggest that there is only a 31% chance of a draw when the stats seem to suggest otherwise.
Minimum price to take – 15/8
The Oracle
To visit The Oracle’s web site click here ===> Football Betting Tips
Uk Horse Racing Research
Most uk horse racing punters recall Frankie Detorri’s magnificant seven at Royal Ascot a few years ago.
Ever since betting shop punters have been backing Detorri in multiple bets when he has several rides at a meeting.
Exactly how wise is this as a betting strategy however?
Horse racing researcher Dave Renham has examined many years of past horse racing data, crunched the numbers and has written a short article detailing all the cold hard facts and figures.
His findings may SHOCK some of you.
You may read his free report at the link below
Click here === >Frankie Detorri Betting Research
Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip
NOTTINGHAM 1.50
BET ON TotePLACEPOT AT ToteSPORT.COM
HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 5f13y
11/4 Silver Prelude, 9/2 Molly Two, 12/1 Bluebok,
12/1 Ryedane, 12/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 14/1 Gwilym,
16/1 Lake Chini, 16/1 Ronnie Howe, 16/1 The History
Man, 20/1 Comptonspirit, King Of Swords, 25/1
Brandywell Boy, 33/1 Thoughtsofstardom.
SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE
* This is a 5f handicap for 0-70 horses
* Nottingham has 11 renewals of this race
* There has been 162 similar races elsewhere
* Taking the Nottingham race first
* Horses with under 21 career runs were 0-70
* Horses that came from 6f or more were 0-36
* None of the 11 winners were aged 8 or more
* Horses with under 9st scored badly (1-84)
* Horses absent over a month also struggled
Some of these trends have to be broken today and I think the horse that will do it is SILVER PRELUDE. I totally agree with the Racing Post that now he is back at 5f he can dominate the stands rain. SILVER PRELUDE may be better on the sand but he is also effective on turf. He is very well handicapped off 55. He has his lowest turf mark in years and if you look at the class of horse he was facing a few months ago it dwarfs these. His turf form isnt as good but it is still more than good enough to beat this 0-70 field. Dont forget he is just about bottomweight as well for this and all his 3 wins on Turf have been over 5f. I think he could blow these away on his best form. He comes from a Folkestone race where he made all the running for the first 5f. He came into that race with question marks. He had lost in every 6f race he had contested before. He was an 8yo absent over a month so could have been fitter. This front runner needs the drop down in trip and I cant see many of these catching him in this race. There are certainly some negatives about his opponents.
* There has been 162 of these 5f handicaps in May
* Fillies that had under 9 starts had a poor 2-71 record
* None of those had just 1 run that season (0-20)
* None of those were aged 4 or more (0-30)
* MOLLY TWO fails those trends
* Fillies aged 4 with under 13 runs won just 3 of the 162 races
* None had under 3 runs this season though
* MOLLY TWO has that to overcome
* All winning fillies had more backclass than her
* LAKE CHINI is out aged 7 with long absence
* KING OF SWORDS doesnt look ready to win
* THE HISTORY MAN has all his wins after July
* He should need more runs to get to peak fitness
* TYRANNOSAURUS REX is exposed with a 44 day break
* Exposed Male horses that had run this year struggled with absence
* Those like him absent over a month were 1-116
* All 42 aged 5 like TYRANNOSAURUS REX lost
* I think the absence beats TYRANNOSAURUS REX
* THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM is in the same boat
I think there are several that might win this if others
dissapoint. I quite like the mare COMPTONSPIRIT
as a big priced runner but the way this should map
out is that SILVER PRELUDE a fit and in form and
very well handicapped runner should make all and
run these into the ground. I will be surprised if any
horse manages to get to him and overtake him.
SHORTLIST
* COMPTONSPIRIT is value at 25/1
* She was 4th in this race last year
* I like her profile and she fits the “Nottingham” stats
* SILVER PRELUDE looks the one
SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE
Silver Prelude is 3/1 with Sportingbet and Betfair
Silver Prelude is 11/4 with Bet365 – Betfred – BSq
Silver Prelude is 5/2 with Tote – VC
Guy Ward
To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Advice
West Ham v Liverpool Saturday 9th May 5.30pm ko Live on Setanta
TEAM NEWS
West Ham’s injury list includes Scott Parker, James Collins, Kieron Dyer, Dean Ashton, Valon Behrami, Danny Gabbidon and Carlton Cole.
Xabi Alonso has failed to recover from an ankle injury and will miss out for Liverpool.
Fernando Torres and Javier Mascherano are fit again and in the squad.
West Ham Squad: Green, Neill, Tomkins, Upson, Ilunga, Stanislas, Noble, Lopez, Kovac, Boa Morte, Collison, Tristan, Di Michele, Sears, Lastuvka, Spector, Payne, Hines, Savio.
Liverpool Squad: Reina, Arbeloa, Carragher, Skrtel, Hyypia, Agger, Dossena, Aurelio, Insua, Benayoun, Gerrard, Babel, Mascherano, Lucas, Kuyt, Torres, Riera, Cavalieri, Ngog, El Zhar.
TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE ONLY)
WEST HAM
PLAYER Goals
Carlton Cole 9
Craig Bellamy 5
David Di Michele 4
Diego Tristán 3
Mark Noble 3
Jack Collison 3
LIVERPOOL
PLAYER Goals
Steven Gerrard 13
Fernando Torres 13
Dirk Kuyt 11
Yossi Benayoun 7
Robbie Keane 5
Alberto Riera 3
THE ORACLE’S MATCH PRICES (100% BOOK)
WEST HAM 13/2 13%
DRAW 10/3 23%
LIVERPOOL 4/7 64%
ANALYSIS
MATCH:
West Ham are sitting in seventh place in the league and are in pole position to qualify for the Europa league next season. Considering the resources he has had to work with, Gianfranco Zola has done a fantastic job. However, I think the Hammers are punching above their weight and are likely to miss out on European football next season. Several players left in January and the team that takes the field tomorrow will be missing seven of the starting eleven which left Anfield with a point in December. Several injury problems have reduced the Hammers to the bare bones and it is difficult to see them getting more than a draw.
Liverpool need a victory to keep alive their extremely slim hopes of snatching the title from Man United and will be boosted by the return of Fernando Torres. The Spaniard missed the goalless draw between the two in December and along with Gerrard, will provide a serious threat. Liverpool are scoring freely at the moment and have managed three or more in their last five games. They have lost just one of their last twenty four league games and they are rightfully strong favourites to leave Upton Park with all three points.
The match prices look about right and whilst a Liverpool victory is definitely the most likely outcome, it does not provide any real value. West Ham have failed to beat any of the six sides above them in the table this season and will be relying on hard work and team spirit rather than on quality to see them through.
GOALS:
Liverpool’s last six matches in all competitions have featured three goals or more as have nine of their last ten. These ten games have averaged 4.6 goals per game making over 2.5 goals the only option worth considering, at first glance. However, West Ham’s record is the exact opposite and twelve of the last thirteen have featured two goals or less. The Hammers are struggling to score at the moment and a bet on over 2.5 goals might require Liverpool to score three times.
GOALSCORERS:
Steven Gerrard is a standout 2/1 with Corals to score at anytime and is worthy of at least a small interest. Gerrard is joint top Liverpool scorer in the Premiership with thirteen goals but his seven in Europe and one FA cup goal take his tally to twenty one. His advanced role these days, along with his threat from set pieces and penalty taking duties make him a value proposition. Ladbrokes and Hills are just 5/4. Yossi Benayoun is also a backable price to score against his old club at 10/3 with Hills. He has eight goals in all competitions and is in the form of his career at the moment.
RECOMMENDATIONS
1pt Steven Gerrard to score anytime 2/1 Coral or 15/8 BoyleSports
Best Wishes
The Oracle
If you have not already done so I suggest you give yourself more odds picking options and open an account with the bookmakers below.
