Horse Racing Stats

Just a snippet from the full message from www.RacingTrends.co.uk

———–

Value horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 9 years would have shown good profits in the long term:

Sign of the Cross (7.50 Wolverhampton)

Draw section -

Ripon 5f (qualifying race today at 2.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f there have been 15 races in the past four seasons. Many of these races have seen the field split into two groups as the ground nearer to each rail is quicker than the centre of the course. This fact is demonstrated by the fact that 7 of the 16 winners were drawn in either the two lowest, or two highest stalls. Hence there should be an advantage to horses drawn 1, 2, 17 and 18. My feeling is that low may well have the edge on the likely fast ground.

Leicester 6f (qualifying race today at 1.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 39.3% middle third of the draw 35.7% top third of the draw 25%

High draws have been at a slight disadvantage but it is not too significant.

Haydock 5f (qualifying race today at 6.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 32.1% middle third of the draw 32.1% top third of the draw 35.7%

A very even playing field with no draw advantage.

Haydock 1m (qualifying races today at 7.10 and 8.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 33.3% middle third of the draw 33.3% top third of the draw 33.3%

Amazingly the 51 races have been won equally (17 each) by the three sections of the draw. Even more amazingly the placed stats are virtually identical too!

Horses that ran well against a draw bias recently (NEW SECTION): Nisaal (1.00 Sandown) – first home on the stands side LTO when 4^th Comptonspirit (2.55 Ripon) – best of horses that raced towards the far side at Redcar LTO when 2^nd

POOR VALUE FAVOURITE - none

Trainer section

Positive trainer stats: please note certain stats will be repeated each day for several horses. It is simply a way of illustrating the type of horse a particular trainer has done consistently well with in the past.

FLAT

Mount Hermon (1:00 Sandown) – H Morrison – April to June – off the track for 6 months+ in handicaps; SR 18.8% ROI +70%

Royal Desert (2:30 Leicester)*** – M Channon – 2yo maidens March to May – top 3 in the betting; SR 29.8% ROI +12.8%  *** currently 14/1 and joint 5th in the betting

Holberg (3:05 Leicester) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%

Racer Forever (3:40 Leicester) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%;

Virtual (3:45 Sandown) John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 22.7%; roi +22.7%

Pipedreamer (4:15 Sandown) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 28.3%; roi +37.2%;

Victorian Art (4:35 Ripon)*** – M Magnusson – all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48%  *** Non runner

Cosimo (4:45Leicester) – Sir Michael Stoute – 3yos in maiden races off track for 6 months+ SR 32% roi +20%

Serious Impact (4:45Leicester) – John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 22.7%; roi +22.7%

Signaller (5:10 Ripon) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%

Matraash (7:40 Haydock) – Mark Johnston – horses returning from break of 6 months+ running in a maiden SR 24.6% roi +27.8%

Frosted (8:50Wolverhampton) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%

Ballet Dancer (8:50 Wolverhampton) – M jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 29%; roi +75%

NH

Winged Arrow (3:20 Market Rasen) J O’ Neill handicap hurdles aged 4 to 7 if priced 8/1 or shorter – SR 25% win & pl 53%; roi 20%  **** – currently priced 6/1

Trainer Course Stats

Sandown – All Races (best strike rates)

Ripon – All Races (best strike rates)

Haydock – All Races (best strike rates)

Leicester – All Races (best strike rates)

HOT TRAINERS (trainers who are currently in good form) – J.Gosden, W. Swinburn, B Hills, J Boyle, H Cecil, P Chappell-Hyam, P Evans, T Dascombe, R Fahey, T Barron

Horses with decent course records – none
Strong sire stats -

Lewyn (5.40 Haydock) – Exceed and Excel 2yos over 5f SR 24%

Crown (5.40 Haydock) – Royal Applause 2yos in 5f maidens class 5 or lower SR 22.5%; ROI +35%

For two other horses today, keep an eye on the going / weather. In the unlikely event the going goes soft or heavy at Leicester or Sandown, two horses are likely to run well due to solid sire stats in the mud:

Regal Parade (3.40 Leicester) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY

Virtual (3.45 Sandown) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY Negative Sire stats -

Kate Skate (5.40 Haydock) – Poor sire stat – Mark of Esteem 2yo non handicaps over 5f SR 3.3% ROI loss -71.3%

Pace information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Ripon 5f (2.55) Leaders 2.5 Prominent / chased leaders 1.1 Hold up / behind 0.45 Front runners have an advantage. Hold up horses are at a big disadvantage.

Most likely front runners drawn low are Mr Wolf (drawn 1); Nomoreblondes (drawn 3); most likely front runner drawn high is Speedy Senorita (drawn 17)

Horses noted 2 or more sections – None (unless the going goes soft/heavy then VIRTUAL in the 3.45 Sandown would qualify under 2 sections)

Racing Trends
Saturday, 25-Apr-2009

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Horse Racing Tips from ===> Horse Racing Tips

1 Selection

Leicester 1.55

HUSTLE 5/1 Bet365

Each Way

The horse I want to bet  today
is HUSTLE. I think he will settle early and after a
furlong or so he will be a little outpaced and look
like he is under pressure. He should come back on
the bridle in the last two furlongs and use his turn
of foot to mow these down if Jamie Spencer can
ride him correctly. I dont think there are many
who can win this race. He comes from a good trial
race and will be finishing when many have cried
enough and I think it will take a dissapointing run
for him not be placed and I think he can win.

**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y ‘S R A C I N G

Winner yesterday with REINDEER DIPPIN. He was not
pretty but he won in a workmanlike fashion and quite
a good price in such a small field and I have to be happy
with that. It may have been over hurdles and another
mismashed message but he won and I am keeping it
tight and profitable at the moment and whilst we are
lacking fireworks I am not in bad form. I am in control
of the racing at the moment which is a good sign.

LEICESTER 1.55

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP (CLASS 4)
(4yo+,0-85) 5f218y

9/2 Hustle, 5/1 Pravda Street, 8/1 Kipchak, 8/1 Vhujon,
10/1 Filligree, 10/1 Gift Horse, 11/1 Dancing Maite,
11/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 12/1 Peter Island, 12/1 Sparton
Duke, 14/1 Harlech Castle, 16/1 Charles Darwin, 16/1
Timber Treasure, 20/1 Methaaly.

* This is a 0-85 handicap just short of 6 furlongs
* This race has an 13 year history
* There has been 100 similar races run at other tracks
* Seasonal debutants had a 1-43 record in this race
* FILLIGREE is a seasonal debutant filly
* 4yo fillies first time out like her won 3 races
* All 3 that won had ran in better grade than her
* She is also on a career high mark and not for me
* SPARTON DUKE is also a 4yo seasonal debutant
* These types are 0-18 in this race
* Horses with 1 run this year underperformed
* HARLECH CASTLE does this and comes from 5f
* Those with 1 run this year coming from 5f were 3-83
* None won this race at Leicester
* None anywhere lost as far as he did last time
* HARLECH CASTLE looks opposable
* Exposed horses with 1 run this year struggled
* All 36 that ran in this Leicester race lost
* PETER ISLAND fails that and has a months break
* GIFT HORSE fails this and usually wins later in the year
* TIMBER TREASURE doesnt appeal well beaten over 5f
* Horses dropping from 7f had a 1-48 record in this race
* In other races they did a bit better
* Those with under 7 runs though were just 1-33
* PRAVDA STREET does that
* Horses that won with under 7 runs were different types
* Those like him that ran this year were 1-31
* PRAVDA STREET is opposed
* KIPCHAK has just won over 7f
* All horses that came from 7f races had more backclass
* I didnt think he was safe in this race
* Not up 9lbs in the weights and up in class
* CHARLES DARWIN hasnt run into form yet
* I feel he needs more runs before he wins
* I cant find a winner like DICKIE LE DAVOIR
* He was beaten too far for me last time

SHORTLIST

HUSTLE
DANCING MAITE
VHUJON

* DANCING MAITE has a very solid profile
* I would have been happier with one factor
* No past winner came from the sand as he does
* I would have liked to have seen that
* HUSTLE comes from the same race as 2 past winners
* The 2006 and 2008 winners came from the same race
* VHUJON also ran in that race but has run since
* They were 4th and 5th in that race and hard to split
* VHUJON is not out of this
* My worry for VHUJON is stall one
* Not sure how bad a draw that might be
* I would rather be drawn high though
* My concern for HUSTLE is will he go the pace
* I see him at the back being bustled along
* I see him crusing through in the last furlong
* He will look the winner but will he run out of road
* His last race over 6f was actually sharper than this
* Despite less yardage this Course and Distance is stiffer
* It takes a second more to run over this trip and track
* Thats a massive help to HUSTLE in my view

SELECTION- HUSTLE each way 5/1 Bet365

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s website Click Here ===> Horse Racing Tips

Weekend Football Betting Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United

Sunday 19^th April 1.30pm ko Live on Sky

H2H in Premier League

HOME/AWAY AVERAGES (LAST 20 GAMES) TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR – HOME

NEWCASTLE UNITED – AWAY

H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS – 11 LEAGUE GAMES)

THIS SEASONS GOAL AVERAGES PER GAME

CURRENT FORM TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR - LAST FIVE GAMES

NEWCASTLE UNITED - LAST FIVE GAMES

TEAM NEWS Roman Pavlyuchenko and Jermaine Jenas are both struggling with injuries and are rated doubtful.   Jermaine Defoe is back in training and could be involved for Tottenham.   Obafemi Martins, Steven Taylor Jose Enrique and Peter Lovenkrands are all doubts for Newcastle.   Joey Barton remains on the sidelines but Mark Viduka is back in the squad.

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR Squad: Gomes, Corluka, King, Woodgate, Assou-Ekotto, Huddlestone, Lennon, Jenas, Bent, Modric, Keane, Palacios, Pavlyuchenko, Cudicini, Bale, Zokora, Bentley, Dawson, Chimbonda, O’Hara, Hutton, Campbell.  

NEWCASTLE UNITED Squad:Harper, Forster, Krul, Beye, Bassong, Coloccini, S. Taylor, Edgar, Cacapa, Butt, Duff, R. Taylor, Gutierrez, Nolan, Guthrie, Lovenkrands, Geremi, Smith, Martins, Owen, Viduka, Carroll, Xisco, Ranger.      

TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE ONLY)

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR                                               NEWCASTLE UNITED

THE ORACLE’S MATCH PRICES (100% BOOK)

TOTTENHAM                 7/10      59%

DRAW                          14/5      26%

NEWCASTLE                11/2      15%      

ANALYSIS MATCH:   Tottenham are the form team coming into this one with five wins out of seven in the league. They were on course for six out of seven at Blackburn two weeks ago before a poor refereeing decision reduced them to ten men and they conceded two late goals. Tottenham’s form under Harry Redknapp has improved dramatically and they are now on course for a UEFA cup spot.   Newcastle are seven games without a win and have won once in sixteen. They are running out of games and have to start winning soon if they are to have any chance of staying up. Alan Shearer will be targeting three points from this one as a draw simply isn’t good enough at this stage of the season. Newcastle actually have a very good recent record against Tottenham, winning the last six in a row. However, those victories came under different managers and with better players. This current Newcastle side has one just three of their last twenty away games and I’ll be very surprised if they make it seven in a row on Sunday.   Newcastle have drawn twelve of their thirty two games this season which is more than any other Premiership side. At 3.9 on Betfair, the draw is possibly the value call in this market. However, with the carrot of European football in front of them and a near fully fit squad, I think Spurs will probably take all three points.

GOALS:   There is a strong history of high scoring games in this fixture with the last seven in a row featuring three or more and averaging 3.6 goals per game. Newcastle have one of the highest goals per game averages in the division at 2.8 goals per game and have kept just one clean sheet in their last fifteen. It is no coincidence that Shay Given left the club in January. Tottenham on the other hand have only averaged 2.3 goals per game and White Hart Lane has seen fewer goals than any other Premiership ground this season. I think this is partially down to Tottenham struggling in front of goal earlier this season and now that everyone is fit they look to have plenty of goals in the team.   There has never been a goal less draw between these two sides in the history of the Premiership. Newcastle have also scored more goals against Spurs than any other Premiership club. I think this could be an open game with both teams going for the win and consequently, I think evens about over 2.5 goals looks a bit of value here.

GOALSCORERS:   Robbie Keane is Tottenham’s main goal threat but at 13/8 doesn’t offer particular value. Newcastle’s Michael Owen does appear to be a shade of value at 11/4 to score anytime with PaddyPower. Owen has missed a large part of the season through injury but has fantastic goals to game ratio when he does play. He has had a few games to build up match fitness now and I expect to see his name on the score sheet sooner rather than later.  

RECOMMENDATIONS 1pt over 2.5 Goals evens Ladbrokes or 2.04 Betfair

Best Wishes

The Oracle

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SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL

A snippet from my full service over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Not a race I am staking heavily in myself but its the big race of the day and I thought you would be interested in the analysis and research.

AYR 3.25 Coral SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL
HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

7/1 Chief Dan George, 8/1 Nine De Sivola, 8/1
Tricky Trickster, 10/1 West End Rocker, 12/1
Merigo, 12/1 That’s Rhythm, Gone To Lunch,
16/1 Hello Bud, 16/1 Out The Black, According
To John, 20/1 Brooklyn Brownie, 20/1 Chiaro,
20/1 Dear Villez, 20/1 King Barry, 20/1 Sound
Accord, 25/1 Coe, 33/1 L’Aventure, 33/1 Native
Coral, 33/1 Sea Diva, 40/1 Arteea, 50/1 Le Toscan.

SPLIT STAKE BET

DEAR VILLEZ 28/1
NINE DE SIVOLA 8/1

SAVER
Place Bet on
HELLO BUD 4/1

* The Scottish Grand National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992
* I have looked at 64 other races
* Since 1993 there has been 64 Handicap Chases
* Thats 64 races between Febuary and June
* Thats 64 races over distances of 3m 7f or more
* Thats 64 races in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* This includes several Nationals and the the Eider
* These 64 are the closest races to the Scottish National

The first thing I would do is ignore horses that ran
in the Grand National. You have to go back to 1987
for the last horse to win this race coming from the
Grand National. ARTEEA fails that. I would oppose
all older horses aged 11 or more with under 5 runs
this year. NATIVE Coral is out aged 11 with 3 runs
this year. No horse has won this race with under 3
runs this year so ACCORDING TO JOHN is out.

I think LE TOSCAN is up too far in trip. Preperation
is everything in Nationals and its interesting that
horses who Fell last time out or who Pulled Up had
a 0-109 record in this race. You want a horse coming
here confident and in form and I’d be wary of horses
coming here not finishing or falling intheir last race.
GONE TO LUNCH , COE and BROOKLYN BROWNIE
have it to overcome. This trend is supported in most
similar races and not just this one and a last time out
Fall is not a profile you want in this sort of race. Both
L´AVENTURE and SEA DIVA are out as mares from 4m.

NUMBER OF CHASE STARTS (1st 2nd 3rd)

2008 – 13 9 10
2007 – 10 11 16
2006 – 19 10 14
2005 – 6 5 5
2004 – 24 19 20
2003 – 21 10 16
2002 – 14 9 8
2001 – 14 8 11
2000 – 5 10 15
1999 – 9 18 27
1998 – 10 10 17

This table shows how many Chase starts the
winner – second – third had in recent years.
There was a winner in 2000 with 5 Chase
starts but no horse had less than that and
THATS RHYTHM has only four runs. I’d be
against him because of that and also against
TRICKY TRICKSTER who also has just Four
chase runs. TRICKY TRICKSTER comes from
a Novice Chase and No past winner of this
race did that. I think this pair might Fail.

I am against the horses that come from ordinary
Novice Chases. SOUND ACCORD does that and
is out as is THATS RHYTHM whose had only 4
chase starts and comes from a Beginners chase.

Last year was the first year that the winner had
never ran in Graded Class before. That was a 66/1
winner and I would be much happier if my horse
had previously ran in Graded Class before. This
puts me of HELLO BAY who hasnt a typical sort
of preparation anyway running very recently in
a lower class handicap. The last 11 year old to win
was in 1996 and all 48 since then lost. I think he
is beatable but I do think the fact he ran 4 days
ago may work in his favour and I am inclined to
shortlist him at the price. KING BARRY also lacks
Grade 1 form and has a Career high mark. I have
to wonder if OUT THE BLACK has the class as he
is an 11 year old and has no Graded Class at all.

Horses aged 7 have the worst record in recent years
with a 1-40 record and whilst not a good statistic I
dont want CHICARO as an exposed 7 year old who
is down from 4m races. If you look at the 64 races
at this time of year No exposed 7 year old won any
of those races. WEST END ROCKER is also a 7 year
old. He comes from a Novice Chase which worries
me. No past winner of this came from a Novice
Chase. In 64 other races only 1 horse managed
to do it. WEST END ROCKER has just 5 chase runs
and is a 1st season chaser and has no Graded form
at all and I didnt want to be with him.

I dont have a problem with DEAR VILLEZ at all
and as he is unexposed I like his chance giving
weight to many Novice Chasers and inexperienced
horses that all have plenty to prove. Around 28/1
DEAR VILLEZ has been underestimated here

* CHIEF DAN GEORGE looks opposable
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* No past winner of this race did that
* In 64 other races only 1 managed it (1-34)
* That was Narrow Water in the 2001 Eider Chase
* He looks inexperienced with 5 chase starts
* He is a First season chaser
* I see this as a problem coming from a Novice race
* He’s a small horse which doesnt fill me with confidence
* The only time he ran in a chase at Ayr he flopped
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE wouldnt be my choice

* MERIGO won the Eider Chase last time out
* He is 8lbs higher in this race
* No past winner came from the Eider Chase
* MERIGO has no Graded form another problem
* He is a horse that will want the ground soft
* Overall his profile does have Flaws in it

SHORTLIST

DEAR VILLEZ 28/1
NINE DE SIVOLA 8/1
HELLO BUD 16/1

* NINE DE SIVOLA was 2nd in the 2007 renewal
* He had a 10lbs lower mark but it was a good run
* Not least after running 2nd in the Irish National
* He comes from the 4m Chase at Cheltenham
* Thats one race I am fine with as a trial
* Stormez was 2nd in that before coming 2nd here
* Old Benny was 4th in this having won that race last year
* NINE DE SIVOLA has been laid out all year for this
* HELLO BUD could be worth chancing
* A Win 4 days ago could work two ways
* Given so many have poor profiles I’ll risk him

SPLIT STAKE BET

DEAR VILLEZ 28/1
NINE DE SIVOLA 8/1

SAVER
Place Bet on
HELLO BUD 4/1

Guy

To visit Guy’s website click here ==> Uk Horse Racing

Message From www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Thursday 16^th April

Horses that are positives in more than one area will be noted at the end of the message.

Value horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 5 years would have shown good profits in the long term:

Sills Vincero (5.15 Wolverhampton)

Milne Bay (6.15 Wolverhampton)

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton)

Draw section –

Ripon 1 mile (3.45 today) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 onwards):

bottom third of the draw 12.5%

middle third of the draw 18.8%

top third of the draw 68.8%

It seems from the stats that horses from the top third have a very significant edge. However, it should be noted that there have only been 16 handicap races of 10 or more runners in the past four years which is a small sample. Having said that, traditionally high draws over this distance do have a decent edge.

Best drawn runners – Trumptoo (drawn 11), Johnmanderville (drawn 10), Firebet (drawn 9), On Offer (drawn

Ripon 5f (5.30 today) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f there have been 15 races in the past four seasons. Many of these races have seen the field split into two groups as the ground nearer to each rail is quicker than the centre of the course. This fact is demonstrated by the fact that 7 of the 15 winners were drawn in either the two lowest, or two highest stalls. Hence there should be an advantage to horses drawn 1, 2, 15 and 16.

Well drawn runners – Circuit Dancer (drawn 1), Rio Sands (drawn 2), Cheshire Rose (drawn 15), Miss Daawe (drawn 16).

Market information

2.00 Ripon; 2.25 Newmarket; 4.20 Ripon; 4.45 Newmarket – POOR VALUE FAVOURITE – Maiden races on turf in March / April when favourite is debutant; sr 26%; roi -24.5%. Overall figures for such runners is 32% and -9%

Trainer section

Positive trainer stats: please note certain stats will be repeated each day for several horses. It is simply a way of illustrating the type of horse a particular trainer has done consistently well with in the past.

Cheviot (2.35 Ripon) – M Jarvis – March and April – horses off the track for more than 6 months; SR 26.1%; ROI +37%

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket) – John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

Close Alliance (3.35 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

Balaagha (4.45 Newmarket) – M Jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 29%; ROI +75%

Balaagha (4.45 Newmarket) – M Jarvis – March and April – horses off the track for more than 4 weeks SR 27.2%; ROI +56%

Perpetually (5.20 Newmarket) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% ROI +22.7%

Justcallmehandsome (7.45 Wolverhampton) – D Ffrench Davis on all weather – 7lb claiming jockey on board – SR 22.7%; ROI +394%

Positive trainer course stats:

John Gosden has an excellent overall record at Newmarket since 2000. In all Newmarket races he has an overall strike rate of 19.4% for profits of +33.6% – this comes from over 580 runners. This record means all his runners deserve a second glance – his runners today are listed below:

HOT TRAINERS – R Fahey, P Chappell Hyam, J Gosden, J Boyle, B Hills,

P Evans, J Best

Horses with decent course records

Common Diva (7.15 Wolverhampton) – 3 wins, 1 placed from 8.

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton) – 3 wins from 4

Horses noted in two or more sections

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton)

Please note that when evaluating trainer stats, we need two completely different types of positive stat to be included in this section. Hence if we include the Newmarket stats for John Gosden we also have the following horses noted in two sections:

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket)

Close Alliance (3.35 Newmarket)

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket)

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket)  

——

Big race trends (last 10 years)

3.00 Newmarket – Abernant Stakes

Positives

9 of the last 10 winners finished 5^th or better LTO.

9 of the last 10 winners were 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th in the betting LTO.

4yos have won 5 of the 10 races (from 35% of the total runners)

Trainer Richard Hannon has saddled 3 winners and 2 placed from 12 runners

3 of the last 10 winners have won from the front (2 were clear leaders, the other disputed the lead).

7 of the last 10 winners raced at Newmarket or Doncaster LTO.

Negatives

Priced 16/1 or bigger – 0 from 54 (however, there were three winners at 14/1).

3.35 Newmarket – Craven Stakes

Positives

Richard Hannon (3 wins), Barry Hills (2 wins) and Sir Michael Stoute (2 wins) should be respected.

9 of the last 10 winners ran over 7f LTO.

6 of the last 10 winners ran at Newmarket LTO.

Negatives

American bred horses have provided just 1 win from 23 runners (compare with British breds – 5 wins from 30; Irish breds 4 wins from 18).

Horses priced 2/1 or shorter have provided just 1 winner from 8.

Racing Trends
Thursday, 16-Apr-2009

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Racing Tip For Haydock From www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Haydock 2.55

DANNY ZUCO

Each Way 9/2 CanBet   Ladbrokes   VC

I see todays selection as just a routine one and it
was closer to being a no bet day than an account
bet day. We knew this particular Saturday was one
where we had no Flat racing on Grass and that our
options would be limited and its possibly the worst
Saturday card of the season.

The only flat card today is the All Weather card
at Kempton and I would be hard pressed to name
a track that I dislike more. I detest the place with
a passion. I dont like my angles there. I dont like
the way races are run there and the place leaves
me cold and lacking confidence there. That said I
have a few races I’m previewing and have done as
much as I can there as its the only flat card.

**********************************************

T O D A Y ‘ S   R A C I N G

N A T I O N A L    H U N T

Given that Kempton is the only Flat card today to be
confident of a great message I needed some excellent
jump cards and I dont feel I have that today and I am
dissapointed with the National Hunt cards especially
as none of these have any history to fall back on and
it wont be easy to nail anything today.CARLISLE has
a tedious all chase card as they always do these days.
Big fields make the meeting even harder. In the end
I felt only 1 race was worth a quick preview.

HAYDOCK throws us a nasty card. Not many races I
wanted to preview there but I will do the 2.55pm race.

HAYDOCK 2.55

Blue Square “FIXED BRUSH” NOVICES’ HURDLE FINAL
BONUS RACE (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) 2m4f

3/1 Burton Port, 6/1 Danny Zuko, 6/1 Fredo, 6/1 Rouge Et Blanc, 8/1 Sparrow Hills, 10/1 Fiendish Flame, 10/1 Magellan Straits, 12/1 Border Reiver, 12/1 Quinz, 12/1 Riddleofthesands, 16/1 Broken Beau, 20/1 Karmadice

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 31 similar races at this time of year
* Thats 31 races in Class 2-3-4 over 19f – 22f
* I want to oppose horses that are up in distance
* Horses from 16f and 17f had a 4-116 record in 31 races
* Those aged 5 that came from 17f or less were 0-36
* FIENDISH FLAME fails this and has other problems
* No horse from a 16f race had more than 11st 4lbs
* MAGELLAN STRAITS also comes from a 16f race
* We know horses aged 5 doing that are 0-36
* FREDO is also a 5yo from 2 miles (0-36)
* KARMADICE is out coming from a 16f race
* RIDDLEOFTHESANDS comes from 16f
* He is also a 5yo and all 36 doing it lost
* No horse that came from 16f or 17f had under 5 runs
* All 27 that tried failed
* ROUGE ET BLANC fails that and is only a 4yo
* QUINZ is a bit too inexperienced for me
* None of the 31 winners came from a maiden hurdle
* SPARROW Hills fails that
* BROKEN BEAU also fails that
* BORDER REIVER is a 5yo unplaced last time
* No 5yo finished unplaced in a novice hurdle and won
* There look to be only 2 strong runners in this race
* BURTON POINT – DANNY ZUKO
* BURTON POINT was 4th in a Graded Hurdle last time
* Horses coming from Graded races were 2-5
* Both came from the same race as he did
* DANNY ZUCO has won a novice hurdle easily last time
* He gets 25lbs from BURTON POINT and thats a lot
* I think I would prefer DANNY ZUCO because of that

SELECTION – DANNY ZUCO 9/2 Each Way

besy Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Stoke v Newcastle Saturday 11^th April 5.30pm ko Live on Setanta  

H2H in Premier League

HOME/AWAY AVERAGES (LAST 20 GAMES) STOKE – HOME (LAST 15 GAMES)

NEWCASTLE – AWAY

H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS – 1 LEAGUE GAME)

THIS SEASONS GOAL AVERAGES PER GAME

CURRENT FORM STOKE – LAST FIVE GAMES

NEWCASTLE – LAST FIVE GAMES

TEAM NEWS Newcastle are without defenders Steven Taylor and Jose Enrique.   Joey Barton and Mark Viduka are closing in on a return but won’t start training again until next week.   Forwards Shola Ameobi and Peter Lovenkrands also remain on the sidelines.   Stoke have the luxury of a near fully fit squad to choose from, Mamady Sidibe is their only absentee.  

STOKE Squad: Sorensen, Wilkinson, Shawcross, Abdoulaye Faye, Higginbotham, Lawrence, Delap, Whelan, Etherington, Beattie, Fuller, Simonsen, Pugh, Cresswell, Olofinjana, Kelly, Camara, Sonko, Amdy Faye, Diao, Cort, Tonge, Griffin.    

NEWCASTLE Squad:Harper, Forster, Krul, Beye, Bassong, Coloccini, Edgar, Cacapa, Butt, Duff, R. Taylor, Gutierrez, Nolan, Guthrie, Geremi, Smith, Martins, Owen, Carroll, Xisco, Ranger.      

TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE ONLY)

STOKE                                                                         NEWCASTLE

THE ORACLE’S MATCH PRICES (100% BOOK)

STOKE                          5/4      44%

DRAW                          12/5      29%

NEWCASTLE                11/4      27%      

ANALYSIS

MATCH:   Stoke’s win at West Brom last week was their first on the road this season. It moved them six points clear of the relegation zone and was their third win in four games. They are now unbeaten in six and victory over Newcastle tomorrow would move them nine points clear of the drop zone. Stoke’s home record is up there with that of the big four and they are unbeaten at the Britannia stadium by anyone outside the top six. It is a very difficult place to go and Stoke have kept four clean sheets in their last five home games.

Newcastle on the other hand, are a team in deep trouble. They have no wins in six and just one win from their last fifteen. The club has been nothing short of a circus this season and whilst the appointment of Alan Shearer as manager has pleased the fans, it could well be the final nail in the coffin. Shearer has no experience of management whatsoever and will be hard pressed to get performances out of the same limited pool of talent that far more experienced managers failed with. If we compare his appointment to that of Kevin Keegan, we can see that Keegan took eight games to win his first game. Shearer has just seven to keep Newcastle up.   Appalling away form has been a problem several different Newcastle managers have failed to solve. This season, the Geordies have won just two of fifteen away games. Last season they won just three of nineteen. Going back to the start of last season therefore, Newcastle have won five out of thirty four away games. That’s a win percentage of just fifteen and the equivalent fixed odds price is 11/2. We can say, therefore, that since the start of last season, the true chances of a Newcastle victory away from home is represented by odds of 11/2. Consequently, it is strange that Newcastle are as short as 7/4 to beat Stoke tomorrow considering this price represents 36%, more than double their average win ratio?   Newcastle have lost one of the best keepers in the league in Shay Given, and will be without Steven Taylor and Jose Enrique at the back tomorrow. The loss of Taylor could be especially painful as he would have played an important role against a very direct Stoke side with a significant aerial threat. Joey Barton is still missing in midfield and Michael Owen and Obafemi Martins are still struggling for sharpness after long injury layoffs.   Stoke fought back from two goals down to earn a point at St James’ Park earlier in the season and are more than capable of winning on their own patch. I think that the “Shearer affect” has been given far too much weight and it is interesting to see that Ladbrokes and the Tote are just 6/5 about a home win. The 8/5 on offer by Coral is definite value.

GOALS:   Stoke home games average just 2.1 goals per game whilst Newcastle away average 2.6. Under 2.5 goals is rightfully favourite but offers little value at 8/11. The reverse fixture earlier in the season saw four goals but a repeat is unlikely tomorrow. Stoke have been a lot more solid at the back recently and with Owen and Martins lacking sharpness, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stoke win to nil.

GOALSCORERS:   James Beattie has bagged six goals for Stoke since signing in January and is a fair price at 15/8 to score anytime with Corals. He should also be on penalty duty and is just 5/4 with Hills. If you want a few quid on someone at a bigger price then you could do worse than backing Ryan Shawcross at 25/1 with Victor Chandler to score the first goal. Shawcross has been particularly dangerous from set pieces recently scoring in three of Stoke’s last five games.

RECOMMENDATIONS 2PTS STOKE TO BEAT NEWCASTLE 8/5 Coral

Best Wishes

The Oracle

www.PremiershipPreview.co.uk

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