Archive for February, 2009

Saturday Febuary 28th

No Account Bet

One Selection

Kempton 5.05

THE BISHOP’S BABY

Win Bet around 7/2- 4/1- 9/2

Currently 4/1 at William Hill , Ladbrokes , CentreBet , Blue Square

I have spent a lot of time on Bumper at
Kempton where THE BISHOP’S BABY has a massive
chance and I think she may win this. If she had been
trained by a bigger yard and also had a professional
on board I would have made her a full account bet as
an each way bet or with a saver in the race. I think
she will either bolt up or run into something above
average which is unlikely. The other problem is with
these races we have no control over prices so I will
make her a selection only. If she wins around 4/1 I
will have done my job well for a Saturday.

Have to go where the statistics take
me and THE BISHOP’S BABY is favoured as a bigger
price than most of these handicap options yet faces
nothing like as much opposition. Just the One bet on
Saturday but much to pick over elsewhere.

**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

I was hindered yesterday for the full member message
and lost a lot of time with some
connection problems and I didnt have a bet because of it.
If I had just gone with one it probably would have won as
I count 10 selections in yesterdays message and these 10
produced a W W W W W 3rd W W 2nd W record which was
pretty spectacular. Not going to let it get to me and will
carry on as planned. Shorter Messages. Finding some bets
that are stronger than we have had recently and get some
profit racked up as quickly as we can

KEMPTON 5.05

Betfred BINGO MAIDEN OPEN
NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 4) (4-6yo) 2m

4/1 Aconitum, 5/1 Artist’s Moon, 5/1 The Bishops Baby,
11/2 Time To Think, 7/1 Divine Intavention, 7/1 Loana
Shell, 8/1 Mintiverdi, 12/1 Robo, 14/1 Genies Lamp, 33/1
Rapid Connection, 100/1 Patrick Dee.

* This is a Maiden Bumper over 2 miles
* Febuary and March have seen 48 of these races
* Rapid Connection- Patrick Dee look outclassed
* Fillies and Mares have a poor 5-172 record
* With 1 career run they are 0-73
* LOANA SHALL fails that
* No mare was absent as long as GENIIES LAMP
* Febuary and March have seen 490 Bumpers
* These are all maiden and non maiden races
* Unraced females are 13-702 a 1.85% strike rate
* Thye score badly but cant be entirely ruled out
* However I would want to oppose these runners
* MINTIVERDI – TIME TO THINK are opposed
* Both are unraced females and I dislike that
* ROBO is unraced at 16/1 and not for me
* I looked at 4 year olds with 1 run in 490 similar races
* Those absent 7 weeks or more were 1-107
* ACONITUM fails that and also comes from a 3yo race
* Horses that did that were 1-33
* ARTIST´S MOON has to be respected from Hendersons
* However he is a once raced 4yo losing by 59 lengths last time
* 4 year olds with 1 run losing by 25 + lengths were 4-276
* Since 1997 that record was just 1-172
* Those that didnt run in 2 weeks were 1-215
* I dont see where the improvement comes from

SHORTLIST

DIVINE INTAVENTION – THE BISHOPS BABY

DIVINE INTAVENTION ran a strong 5th on his debut
and is statistically strong and I like his chance in this. THE BISHOPS BABY is also highly interesting as the only horse with 2 runs something that last years winner had. I think this pair have the strongest chance by far in this race. Video analysis leads me to the following. THE BISHOPS BABY has already clocked a higher  RPR than the average winners of these races.

SELECTION

SELECTION – THE BISHOPS BABY

SAVER to consider – DIVINE INTAVENTION

Best Wishes

Guy

To Visit My main Site    click Here UK Horse Racing Tips

Football Tip For Saturday

Saturday Football Bet From The Oracle at Football Bets

1pt Huddersfield to beat Stockport in league one, 12/5 Skybet or 9/4 Tote (Saturday 28th February 3pm ko)

I’ve said before that I felt Stockport are a club punching above their weight this season, and I think they are on the verge of a significant downturn. They have been enduring financial difficulties for some time now and managing director Mark Magurie quit earlier this month. They had to sell two of their best players in January to balance the books and are left with a young squad thin on numbers. Anthony Pilkington was one of the players sold in January and he was their top scorer at the time. He will return to Edgeley Park tomorrow as a Huddersfield player.

Things came to a head this week when Brighton made an approach for Stockport’s manager Jim Gannon. It was Gannon who masterminded Stockport’s promotion last season and if he leaves I think Stockport could be in real trouble. I say “if” he leaves, because he turned down the Brighton job in the end. However, in a statement during the week, Gannon declared:

“I don’t think any other manager would’ve put up with what’s gone on in the last six months.

“My position became untenable a long time ago.”

This suggests that even though he has turned down Brighton, he will be leaving sooner rather than later. All this is likely to have an extremely unsettling affect on the squad. They lost away at Colchester on Tuesday and I think another defeat is likely to follow tomorrow.

Huddersfield have had the week to prepare for this fixture and have sold out their away allocation. They have a squad full of talented players and I think it is only a matter of time before they put together a run of results. Victories over Leeds and Peterborough in the last month are good evidence of what they are capable of. I think they are a big price to take advantage of Stockport’s troubles tomorrow.

Minimum price to take – 15/8

The Oracle

To visit the Oracle’s site Click Here ===> Football Betting Tips

Soccer Betting Advice

Soccer Betting Advice

1pt Exeter to beat Chester in League Two, 23/20 William Hill and Boylesports or 11/10 widely available (Saturday 21st February 3pm ko)

Chester City are currently a club in turmoil. Financial difficulties saw six first team players depart in January and a transfer embargo put in place. Since beating Accrington on boxing day they have gone ten games without a win, plummeting down the table. They have lost their last six games on the bounce, scoring just once in the process. They have had to field several teenagers in recent weeks and two more will have to be drafted in tomorrow to replace the suspended Paul Linwood and Jay Harris. Linwood picked up his fifth booking of the season in Tuesday’s defeat at Shrewsbury whilst Harris was sent off in the same game, leaving boss Mark Wright down to the bare bones:

“Come training on Thursday when all the kids are at college, we’ll only have six or seven out there because the others are nursing injuries”.

“We know we need four or five players. I’m not saying that in an effort to put pressure on the club or the chairman. It’s a reality”.

“Life’s tough at the moment and Exeter will be a hard game and it depends on what bodies we have available”.

Exeter are a side well placed to take advantage. The Grecians are enjoying a fantastic season and currently sit in seventh place just six points off the top. They have won three of their last four scoring eleven goals in the process. Exeter beat a far stronger Chester side at home back in November and should really be odds on to complete the double.

Minimum price to take – 10/11

The Oracle

=========
To Visit The Oracle’s Site click Here ==> Free Football Tips

Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Racing Tip

A snippet of the anlaysis from my full service today for the free blog.

KEMPTON 3.10

RACING POST CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

4/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Hold Em, 10/1 Nacarat, 12/1
Fier Normand, 12/1 Possol, 14/1 Conna Castle, 14/1 Fleet
Street, 14/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Ungaro, 16/1 Oedipe, 16/1
Silverburn, 20/1 Laskari, 20/1 Piraya, 25/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Endless Power, 33/1 Nozic, 40/1 New Little Bric, 40/1 Stan, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3 miles and
we now have 15 renewals of this race. Some statistics should be able to narrow the field down. You want a horse thats ran over at least 3 miles before. A Guaranteed stayer and horses that prepped over 2m 4f or shorter have poor records so I am against NACARAT who has real stamina issues and also ENDLESS POWER whose up in distance. OLLIE MAGERN is too old. Horses that had just 1 or 2 runs that season had terrible records. only Innox managed it from 49 that tried and that was not run at Kempton and ideally you want more runs this season. Therefore I am against SILVERBURN who may not be at home over this trip. Other underraced horses are BILLYVODDAN- OEDIPE -NEW LITTLE BRICK and LACDOUDAL. You really dont want to be coming into the race having ran poorly. Last time out winners won 11 of the last 15 races and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one falling. STAN – NOZIC fail that. Didn’t feel BATTLECRY did enough last time. Neither did PIRAYA a horse with too many falls recently. You want a high class and consistent horse thats been running well all year. The Last 13 winners of this race ran 48 seperate times in the season they won. In these 48 races in the season they won – the last 13 winners managed to either Win or Place in a very high 42 out of 48 races. You want consistency here so I am taking on the Irish runner CONNA CASTLE whose hardly placed at all. Its interesting that BIG FELLA THANKS and HOLD EM have had just 5 career races over fences and thats not many. You can argue BIG FELLA THANKS has just 4.5 chase runs as he has fallen before. The lightest raced chaser to win this was
Gloria Victus with just 5 career starts so it has been done but He was “special” and a monster of a horse. The last 13 horses that won this had 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 chase runs. There were a couple with 6 runs and Gloria Victus with 5 but its a big ask. I dont feel HOLD EM will have the class to defy that and he is rated lower than most past winners. I am also opposing BIG FELLA THANKS. Inexperience is one reason. Then you have the price which is short enough anyway and many are raising the fact that all his best form is on a left handed track and Kempton could be an issue for him and he hasnt got round the only time he ran here. I do not think LASKARI has the class or stamina from a sire thats never had a 3m winner and he has been on the go too long for me. FIER NORMAND isnt for me. He has 2 runs this year and he fell in his 3rd start so technically he is underraced this year
and I would be concerned he will be having a Cheltenham “prep” race and Jonjo has never had a horse in this race that could be sighted with binoculars. I am shortlisting these three

UNGARO – POSSOL – FLEET STREET

I dont see why UNGARO cant win. He fell at the second
fence in last years race but is it not interesing that last
year he started only 5/1 yet he carries 13lbs less weight
today. He has prepped in the same race as last year and
I give gim a good chance. I have found a winner that was
similar to POSSOL so he is shortlisted. FLEET STREET
also comes ot nicely statistically. I am going with an e/w
bet on UNGARO in this race

* He loves it here and won a Grade 1 here
* He was half the price in last years race with far more weight
* Last time out he was second to todays favourite
* Big Fella Thanks beat him by 11 lengths
* At Todays weights UNGARO has a much better chance

SELECTION – UNGARO Each Way 14/1 BSquare

centrebet are currently showing 112/1 for this horse

Don’t expect to get paid out at that however .
It looks like a palpable error to me.

Think what they meant was 12/1

Guy
———————
Visit Guys Site Click Here ===> Free Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Racing Analysis from RacingTrends

Main Account Bets – Haajes (4.45 Ling) – take 6/1 (Corals, Sky bet, sporting bet) WIN

Firstly some 15 year trends for three of the big races today:

1.05 Ascot Reynoldstown Chase

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 9 winning favourites from 15 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of £8.48 (ROI +56.5%).
Market: There were 4 winning second favourites, so 13 of the 15 came from the top 2 in the market.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at either Kempton, Wetherby or Exeter last time out have an excellent combined record with 9 wins from just 19 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £11.68 (ROI +61.5%). Indeed, if you focus on last time winners at those courses the record improves to 8 wins from just 15 qualifiers for a profit of £12.68 (ROI +90.6%).
Price: Horses priced 7/2 or shorter have produced 13 of the 15 winners.
LTO winners: 14 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
Career wins: Horses with 4 or more career wins produced 11 of the last 15 winners.
Racing Post Ratings: The top rated horses fromRacing Post ratings (formerly Postmark) has found the winner on 7 occasions.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced 0 wins from 32 qualifiers.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO have produced 0 winners from 20.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds

have produced 4 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 26.7%); 7 year olds have produced

8 winners from 38 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 8 year olds plus have produced 2 winners

from 37 qualifiers (SR 5.4%).

Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some very strong positive pointers. 13 of the last 15 winners have been one of the top two in the betting market so this is a definite starting point with preference to favourites who have an outstanding record. From there look for last time out winners, although it is likely that the top two in the market would have won LTO. Horses that raced at either Kempton, Wetherby or Exeter last time out would be the next port of call considering their excellent record. Finally, it should be noted that the last 28 horses aged 8 or older have lost, so it is best to concentrate on younger horses (7yo or younger with slight preference to 5 and 6yos).

Conclusion – Breedsbreeze the favourite at a best priced 5/4 looks a solid trends horse.

2.55 Haydock Rendlesham Hurdle

POSITIVE TRENDS

Days since last run: Horses that return to the track within 2 weeks have a good record with 5 wins from 23 qualifiers. The winners included all 3 horses that won the race at 10/1 or bigger (10/1, 12/1, 100/1).
Race type LTO: Horses that ran in a handicap last time out won 7 races, and last time out winners from handicaps have won 3 from 10.
Price: 10 of the last 15 winners were priced 4/1 or bigger last time out.
French breds: 5 of the last 7 winners have been French bred.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course LTO: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a surprisingly poor record with 1 win from 17 for a loss of £13.50 (ROI -79.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 6 winning favourites (including joints)

from 16 qualifiers showing a loss of £1.87 (ROI -9.8%).

Market: The top 3 in the betting provided 10 of the last 15 winners.
Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have won just 1 from 23, but the price of the

winner was 100/1.

Class LTO: 7 of the 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO. 8 of the 15 winners raced

in a higher or the same class LTO.

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winners from 8 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 6 year olds have produced 3 winners from 18 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 3 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.6%); 8 year olds have won 4 from 24 qualifiers (16.7%); 9 years olds plus have produced 4 winners from 29 qualifiers (SR 13.9%).

Trends analysis: the market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. However, any horse returning to the track within 2 weeks is worth close scrutiny, and with 3 fairly decent priced winners from this stat, this is where some value may be found.Horses that ran in a handicap last time have a better record than one would think and the handful who won that handicap LTO have definitely been worth noting. Horses that were 4/1 or bigger last time out have provided 66.7% of the winners – statistically this figure is normally only 40% in this grade type/grade so this is a stat worth checking out. French breds have a good recent record and any such runner demands respect. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

Conclusion – nothing really stands out trends wise and from a form perspective the race does look at match between the top 2 in the market.

2.40 Wincanton – Kingwell Hurdle

POSITIVE TRENDS

Course LTO: Horses that ran at Sandown last time out have a good record with 5 wins from 23 qualifiers. Backing all runners would have produced a small profit of £2.13 (ROI +9.3%).
Age: 6 year olds have a good record with 7 wins from 29 qualifiers including 4 of the last 5 winners of this race. 7 years old have a fairly good record also with 4 wins from 23.
Racing Post: Racing Post Ratings (old Postmark) have had their top rated horse win 6 times out of the last 11 races. Topspeed in the Racing Post has an even better recent record with 7 wins from the last 11 top rated horses.
Recent win: 11 of the last 15 winners won at least once in their last three races.
Position LTO: 9 of the last 15 winners won or finished 2nd LTO. They have provided 60% of the winners from 38% of the total runners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: Only 1 out of 7 “odds against” favourites has won (Inglis Drever at 11/10 in 2005).
Age: Horses aged 8 or older have produced just 1 winner from 28 for a loss of £11.00 (ROI -39.3%).
Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 29.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors, or horses that have worn them at some stage in their career have produced 0 winners from 19.
Beaten favourites: Beaten favourites last time out have a poor record with just 1 win from 10.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 7 winning favourites from 15, but a loss would have been made backing all of them to the tune of £2.57 (ROI -17.1%).

Trends analysis: from the positive stats perspective, preference should be for 6yos, then 7yos. Also monitor closely the selections of Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed. When they have agreed on the top rated selection they have provided 5 winners from just 9 runners. A recent win is a plus (last three starts), while it is best to ignore any runner that is or has done in the past worn blinkers or a visor.

Conclusion – not a particularly strong trends race but Whiteoak looks to fit the trends best.Having said that it looks a tough ask after a long break on not ideal ground.

Other races

1.55 Haydock – good competitive contest this.

Miko De Beauchene – Did well last season, following up Welsh National success with win in this race from a 8lblower mark. Could go well at decent odds on ground he handles.

Opera Mundi – Has a mixed record, but on soft / heavy it reads: 21112163. Solid chance.
Mon Mome – Back to his best this season when winning at Cheltenham in December. Seemed to have put last season which was poor behind him. Excuses in Welsh National next time (race probably came too quick); handles ground and a player. Record on soft/heavy reads 2U3612114224382.
Cornish Sett – in good form last 2 starts including runner-up in Welsh National from this handicap mark.

Nenuphar Collonges – record on soft/heavy reads 61212217. Should go well with a good round of jumping.

Rambling Minster – Won for eighth time in career at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Up in the weights in a stronger race is the concern.

CharacterBuilding – decent chance on best form. Cheekpieces may help; McCoy will help more.

Eric’s Chram – Front-runner who has fair form but his jumping can be sloppy and that will be a problem.
Glasker Mill – slight concern about the trip but should not be dismissed.
Sherwoods Folly – fifth in Welsh National last time and should be on the premises if able to reproduce that sort of effort here.
Beat The Boys – won 4 times as a novice last year. Form of the yard still a bit suspect so passed over.
D’Argent – stable second string but trip will suit.
Nadover – potentially well weighted and goes on heavy. Soft/heavy record reads:

5421113P713737. Not out of it.
CarnivalTown – handicap mark looks a bit harsh at present.
L’Aventure – quirky type who I’d always rather be against than for.

Conclusion – very open race. My two against the field would be Mon Mome and Opera Mundi.

Onto the all weather:

3.30 Kempton – Wotashirtfull is around even money in this 3 runner sprint. He should win.

3.35 Lingfield – Majuro looks the value option here in an open little affair.

4.05 Kempton – Millfield and Tous Les Deux head the market and these definitely look the two most likely winners. Tous Les Deux would just get my vote.

4.10 Lingfield – Quick Single at around 5/1 may be a bit of value in this maiden.

4.45 Lingfield – Haajes looks overpriced in this good sprint. He is nearer a 4/1 chance on my tissue and so at 6/1 he rates as a bet.
www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Football Betting Tip

1pt Hull to beat Sheffield United in the FA cup, 15/8 William Hill or 9/5 Ladbrokes, PaddyPower and CentreBet (Saturday 14th February 3pm ko)
I don’t usually like to get too involved with betting on cup competitions but after looking at this fixture, I had a long list of reasons to back Hull. Firstly, Hull should go into this match with confidence and morale high, whereas the opposite will be true for their Yorkshire rivals. After a great start to the season, Hull hit a poor run of form and began to slide down the table. However, this slide seems to have been stopped and they have now lost just one of their last four. Last weekend’s draw at Stamford Bridge will have been a big boost to confidence and the players were rewarded with a week’s training in the warmth of Dubai. This trip should have further boosted morale and boss Phil Brown will hope for a positive response. Brown did the same thing this time last year and was rewarded with a six game unbeaten run that helped them kick on and achieve promotion. Training in the sunshine has also had other benefits as it has accelerated the recovery of Jimmy Bullard, Anthony Gardner and Nick Barmby from injury, all three are expected to be involved on Saturday.
Hull lost at Bramall lane last April which robbed them of a chance of automatic promotion and forced them to endure the torture of the play offs.  Brown spoke of revenge in a pre match interview:
“We are now away from home against a Championship team that stuck a little spanner in the works last year”.

“We are still smarting from that one because they weren’t too nice to us in defeat, shall we say”.

“There was no love lost after the game. They may have been gloating a wee bit because they knocked one of the wheels off our trolley”,

“We have got a score to settle and hopefully we will do that”.

I was surprised to see Premiership Hull available at such a big price and part of the reason is possibly Brown’s tendency to rotate his squad in cup competitions. However, I do not think this will be too big a factor in this case at all. There are not many superstars at Hull and many of the players in the squad are of a similar standard. Therefore, making changes to the line up does not affect them too much, especially as those coming into the side will be eager to impress. Brown rotated the squad against Newcastle in the last round and managed to knock the Geordies out on their own turf. I am only expecting one or two changes anyway, especially considering this is a Yorkshire derby and that Brown has been talking of settling scores.
Sheffield United are a side with just one win from four in the Championship and that was an injury time winner against whipping boys Southampton. Last weekend’s derby defeat at home to Sheffield Wednesday was the first time in ninety five years that Wednesday had completed the double over them. It has not gone down well and boss Kevin Blackwell is a man under pressure:
“I would say without question it’s been the hardest week since I’ve come back. It’s the lowest point of my career since I’ve been here”.
“So much good has been undone by one game. People have been dwelling on the Sheffield Wednesday game, like I have done. I had nothing to eat for three or four days”.
“I just apologise to the fans. It was something we didn’t set out to do and it hurts greatly. I couldn’t speak to anybody for four or five days. This is the first time I’ve spoken to the press because it’s taken me that long to get over it. It hurts badly.”
It was the second home game United had lost in a row and to make it worse, they were both local derbies. Upon closer inspection of Sheffield United’s results this season, a clear pattern emerges. The Blades do not seem to be able to compete against stronger opposition and have performed terribly in nearly every big game this season. As well as losing two big local derbies at home to Sheffield Wednesday and Doncaster, United have also managed just one win in seven games against top six sides. They are fifth in the league only as a result of beating bottom half opposition on a regular basis.
Most clubs would be quite happy to be sitting fifth in the league but United fans are not keen on Blackwell or his long ball style of football. He expressed disappointment this week that the fans have not been more supportive. I think it is starting to affect the players too and especially at home where they are under pressure to perform. United have picked up more points away from home this season and they have now won just two of their last eight home games. Both of these victories were against bottom half opposition. Yet another example of Sheffield United performing poorly in big games was their Carling cup exit to Arsenal. Arsene Wenger virtually fielded a youth team but that did not stop the Blades being ripped to pieces in a 6-0 humiliation.
Along with the several negatives I have mentioned above, Sheffield United are further hindered by selection problems ahead of this cup tie. Star striker James Beattie was sold in the January transfer window and his replacements, Jamie Ward and Arturo Lupoli, are both cup tied. Fellow forward Darius Henderson is suspended leaving Blackwell with limited options in attack. Defender Leigh Bromby is also cup tied whilst Captain Chris Morgan, Gary Speed, Ugo Ehiogu and Derek Geary are all injured.
With several positives for Hull and even more negatives for Sheffield United, I think Phil Brown’s men rate a very good bet to progress to the next round.
Minimum price to take – 13/8
By The Oracle
To Visit The Oracles site click here ===> soccer betting tips

Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Febuary 14th

No Account Bet

Promised a Blockbuster and its certainly that with 18
previews today. Whether its an Oscar nominated mail
or box office flop remains to be seen. 18 previews is a
pretty Grotesque thought and the big risk of spreading
myself too thinly has to be a concern. I have things to
say about all 18 races though so it will stand or fall on
todays results but I think my strongest bets are the 2
listed below and I hope I have that right today.

LINGFIELD 3.05 – Full Members Only Bet

WINCANTON 3.10 – CHARITY LANE 6/4

It’s possibly a day where the selections become victim
to the ammount of racing and the size of the message
and they could get marginalised as there is so much to
edit and decide upon but I do feel both horses will win.
Personally I think the obscene size of this mail has
made it imposible to find an account bet and I hope we
can make up for that with the selections.
**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

We had a quiet Friday with no business done.
The message hit a couple of winners and held its own which was as much
as I’d have predicted as I felt it was a rough day that didnt offer us much at all and because of that happy with results yesterday.

Eighteen Previews today spread around most meetings for Full Members and
all codes and the hardest task is extracting the best bits of business and getting them to the top of the message.

For the free blog today just the one race examined.

WINCANTON 3.10

BATHWICK TYRES YEOVIL HANDICAP HURDLE
(DIV I) (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-135)2m6f

13/8 Charity Lane, 4/1 Midnight Chase, 9/2 Khachaturian,
6/1 Mendo, 10/1 Captain Americo, 12/1 Portland Bill,
14/1 Snake Charmer, 20/1 Ned Ludd.

I will be surprised if CHARITY LANE is beaten in this race.
Its quite a good handicap hurdle. I have to be with the lightly raced novice CHARITY LANE in this.
This race has often gone to a Paul Nicholls Novice Hurdler.
He’s won this race 3 times before and two with a Novice Hurdler winners
which is also significant. Nicholls won this in 2002 with Iverain and that interests me as
Iverain won the same novice at Chepstow in December as CHARITY LANE last
ran in and won and he then went to a Grade 1 at Cheltenham.
This horse ran in the 2008 Aintree Bumper.
The Stewarts bought him for 200k a massive sum and he has won both hurdle races since.
He was odds on in both and they were easy races and he wasnt always impressive but its
bought him a reasonably good mark and I think he will improve past these.
One of my better bets.
If you want a saver then its Snake Charmer at 14/1

SELECTION -CHARITY LANE
SAVER -  SNAKE CHARMER

Blog comment:
Prices above were from earlier message for Full members.
Snake Charmer now best 9/1 Ladbrokes, Tote
Plenty of 7/4 around for Charity Lane

Visit Guys Site Click Here ===> Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Horse Racing Tip

Lingfield 3.35   INTERNATIONALDEBUT

Each Way Single Best Price 10/1 William Hill , Ladbrokes, Coral

**********************

On the Service for Full Members of www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
there are seven previews today with 5 at Lingfield and 2 at Wolves.
The 1.20 at Lingfield is a novelty selection
so lets ignore that to start with. That leaves 6 previews.
It sounds far too ambitious to say this – especially as its
Lingfield and its a Saturday but the remaining 6 previews
have produced 6 very strong selections. I feel that I have
Nailed it today and I fancy all 6 very strongly. I think it
is that good a message. Realism tells me I have no hope
of getting 6 winners in 6 races but I dont see where my
weak link are and I wouldnt have a problem at all with
making any of the 6 selections and had the prices been
better in a few cases even account bets were possible in
many of these races. This makes picking the right ones
today for the top of the message a nightmare.

**********************************************

T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

Yesterday we had no business and just side stepped a pretty
limited day that didnt offer anything. Hope thats put me in
the right frame of mind for a much busier day today. With
all the inspections and marginal decisions about what is on
and whats off I decided to concentrate mainly on the sand.
Its a Number Cruching Blockbuster at Lingfield and Wolves
and whilst maximum respect is given both tracks I have had
a good crack at both meetings and hope for a good day.

For the free blog I am lookign at just one race at Lingfield.

LINGFIELD 3.35

WIILIAM HILL TOP TEAM FOOTBALL
PRICES HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m2f

9/2 Lady Jane Digby, 5/1 Baylini, 11/2 Philatelist,
8/1 Ace Of Hearts, 8/1 Formation, 8/1 Internationaldebut,
14/1 John Terry, 16/1 Al Muheer 33/1 Prairie Spirit.

* This is a 10f handicap for horses rated 0-100
* We have had about 64 similar races run before
* PRAIRIE SPIRIT looks unfit to win a race like this
* ACE OF HEARTS is a 10 year old
* None of the 64 winners were that old
* He also has to step up from a Mile
* No horse aged 8 or more managed that
* He also has just 1 run since October
* He isnt well treated for his age and hasnt won at 10f before
* I dont see ACE OF HEARTS as a good bet here
* AL MUHEER has only ever won a maiden
* That instantly made him badly handicapped
* All 14 races since he has lost and is only 5lbs lower
* He has never done the trip before
* It will need to improve him a lot to win a 0-100
* That said AL MUHEER might find that improvement
* He is a fair price at 14/1 and has an outside chance
* JOHN TERRY looks more of a 12f horse
* He has a chance but I have to prefer others
* The race 14 days ago at Lingfield could be important
* FORMATION won that race at 11/1
* LADY JANE DIGBY was 2nd and BAYLINI 3rd
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT was back in 4th
* Less than 2 lengths seperated all 4 runners
* FORMATION won that race 14 days ago
* He had previously been beaten in a claimer
* I think the race was run to suit him last time
* I wouldnt be confident he would beat them all again
* His draw in stall 2 could be an issue
* The last 13 handicaps here with 8 or more runners
* None went to horses drawn in stall 1 or 2
* Only 1 went to a horse drawn 3 as well
* Higher drawn horses have had the edge recently
* This puts me off FORMATION and CONFIDENTIALITY
* I dont want to shortlist FORMATION
* LADY JANE DIGBY is another filly
* Fillies that came from handicaps were 1-45
* They dont score well but you have to respect her
* She’s in form – unexposed and has run in the class before
* LADY JANE DIGBY is respected and shortlisted
* BAYLINI has a chance but does have a bit to prove
* He hasnt yet won from his mark or in the class before
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT is a big runner for me
* He has won from marks of 87 and 92
* Today he has a mark of 95 but that doesnt worry me
* His last 3 runs all had excuses from marks of 99
* Three runs ago he dropped from 8f to 6f a big problem
* I didnt fancy him that day and he duly lost
* Two runs ago he moved up to 7f
* He had a 0-50 stat to overcome that day and lost
* That was no surprise as it was also his Southwell debut
* He ran in the race 14 days ago behind Formation
* He was a fast finishing 4th that day but he may improve
* That day he was up from 7f to 10f
* That had to have inconvenienced him
* Now conditioned at 10f he looks a big runner
* PHILATELIST is respected and has a chance
* He is slowly getting fit now
* Not the best handicapped horse in the race but all class
* PHILATELIST has to be respected but not for me

SHORTLIST

INTERNATIONALDEBUT
LADY JANE DIGBY

SELECTION – Its a wide open race but I feel I have made
a reasonable case for INTERNATIONALDEBUT and he is my main fancy in the race.
I think his last run has been criminally ignored. He was inches behind 3 of these when
having a 3f step up in trip which disadvantaged him. I feel
10f here must be in his range lookingat his form especially
here. If they got off hard he might be suited to a come from behind run and if there
is no pace he has a turn of foot. I see him coming fast and late and whilst this is not easy
and he does have a bit to prove like many others he looks the forgotten horse and a really big price around 10/1

SELECTION – INTERNATIONALDEBUT  EACH WAY

Everton v Bolton

Everton and Bolton

1pt draw between Everton and Bolton in the Premiership, 13/5 Betfred, PaddyPower and Skybet (Saturday 7th February 3pm ko)

Everton have had an extremely tough couple of weeks. Their last five matches have all been against “big four” sides and all have been played in less than a three week period. Wednesday night’s cup replay against Liverpool lasted 120 minutes and would have taken a hell of a lot out of them. Everton’s game plan is based on hard work and they often take a very physical approach. After such a tough run of games I think they are going to be very tired on Saturday and considering Bolton are also a very physical side, I think Everton could be out muscled. The Toffees have a small squad and the same players have played in nearly every game. Fellani and Pienaar both picked up knocks on Wednesday and are doubtful. If they don’t make it the alternatives are teenagers Gosling and Rodwell or Andy Van Der Meyde who has hardly played in two seasons. They will have one new face in the squad as Jo was signed in the transfer window. However, he has hardly played in months himself and is severely lacking match fitness.

Everton have drawn five of their twelve home games this season and have won just three times at Goodison in the league. I expect Bolton to adopt quite a defensive approach and think Everton will struggle to break them down. Tim Cahill is likely to have to play up front on his own as Yakubu, Vaughan and Saha remain out injured, whilst Anichebe has been frozen out after a training ground bust up with David Moyes. Although Everton are always a threat from set plays, I think they are going to struggle to score from open play and could tire dramatically in the closing stages.

Bolton’s recent form has been encouraging. Narrow defeats to Arsenal and Man Utd, both of which were to late goals, were followed by a draw away at Blackburn and victory over Tottenham last week. They are not one of the better sides technically, but they will be difficult to break down and will fight for every ball, not the sort of side Everton want to be playing after such a gruelling few weeks. The reverse fixture at the Reebok stadium earlier this season was decided by an injury time Everton winner and I expect another tight game tomorrow. The draw is a big runner.

Minimum price to take – 9/4

To Visit the Oracle’s site click here ===> Soccer Betting Advice

Weekend Offers From Paddy Power

Weekend Offers From Paddy Power

White at Home!

Spurs v Arsenal
Sunday 8th February 1.30pm, Sky Sports 1

If Robbie Keane scores 1st or last in this game Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match.

Applies to singles placed before kick off only
Max Refund €300/£200 per customer/bet.
Paddy Power football rules apply.
Applies to 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast bets only.
Applies to win part of EW Goalscorer bets only.
If Keane plays no part in the match special will revert to last goal scored outside the box.
Own goals do not count.
Does not apply to customers whose language of registration is Spanish.

Ell-ev-en Offer!

Six Nations 2009
Ireland v France
England v Italy
Scotland v Wales

If any Number 11 scores the last try in any of this weekend’s Six Nations matches then Paddy Power will refund all losing all losing try scorer and winning margin bets on that match.

Applies to single bets placed before kick off only.
Applies to 1st tryscorer, last tryscorer, 1st team tryscorer, to score a try in 80mins and winning margin bets only.
Max refund €300/£200 per customer bet.
Paddy Power Rugby rules apply.

Get a Free £25 bet Click here ===> PaddyPower