1pt Leeds to beat Mk Dons in League one, 5/2 Skybet or  (Saturday 20th December 3pm ko)

[ Blog comment 5/2 now gone .. you can get a shade under that price on Betfair betting Exchange ]

Leeds have endured a bad run of results lately with four defeats on the bounce in all competitions. Losing top goalscorer Jermaine Beckford to injury hasn’t helped, but I think Leeds still have a good enough squad to cope without him and should be back to winning ways sooner rather than later. Luciano Becchio has eleven goals in all competitions and is a real threat, whilst Fabien Delph in midfield is one of the brightest young prospects in the lower leagues. They have quality players throughout the squad and are more than capable of turning it around. Boss Gary McAllister is under pressure and so are his under performing players, that’s why playing away from a restless Elland road crowd tomorrow, will probably count as a positive. Mk Dons on the other hand, are in good form at the moment with four wins out of five. However, these wins have all come against  sides struggling in the wrong half of the table. Brighton, Hartlepool, Walsall and Hereford are all teams promotion hopefuls would hope to beat. The one decent side they played in this run was Scunthorpe, who beat them 2-0 at stadium MK. That was their fourth home defeat of the season and Leeds have every chance of making it five. The Dons are missing an important player of their own, as captain and November league one player of the month Dean Lewington, is out injured. Their squad is pretty much the same one that got promoted from league two last season and I think they are overachieving in third place. This one is a price call more than anything. A month ago you would not have got anywhere near 5/2 about a Leeds win. It is an overreaction to the two sides short term form trends and it makes it well worth backing Leeds to end their poor run tomorrow.

Minimum price to take – 2/1

Regards

The Oracle

Click below to visit his site

football bets

Saturday December 20th

No Account Bet

No Selections

Decided to resist a bet today on either account. If I had one it would be simply be because it was a Saturday and not for the right reasons. Its one of those Saturday’s where the racing is high class and fascinating to watch with some top quality horses running but its so competitive that strong bets don’t look obvious. I have nothing on the sand today so the message revolves around 8 races I like. I have covered most of the big races today and as a message goes its not a bad one aside from one that doesn’t throw up a serious bet on the day. Feel a little bit embarrassed and disappointed not to find something strong today but I don’t want to abandon a principle in throwing any horse at you just because its a saturday and pretending I like it more than I do. I think its a day for small stakes through the message from start to finish or a day to possibly throw a few horses in an each way multiple bet. Stronger days will come soon enough. Leaving this one for interest only bettingIf stuck for inspiration of your own today see below.

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ASCOT 1.40 BoyleSports INTERNATIONAL HURDLE GRADE 2 (4yo+) 2m

11/10 Binocular, 7/2 Crack Away Jack, 11/2 Chomba Womba, 11/2 Katchit, 12/1 Celestial Halo.

SELECTION – KATCHIT Best Current Price 7/1 Coral

KATCHIT can win this race. This is a Quality 2m hurdle with some class hurdlers including Champion Hurdler KATCHITand several pretenders to his crown. This is rescheduled from last weeks abandoned Cheltenham meeting. KATCHIT was my choice last weeks race and is today. I dont like the horse as he has never done me any favours and I would rather he hadnt have won the Champion Hurdle last year. I dont think he will in 2009 either but surely he has to be the bet here. We know that this race is not a good race for 4 year olds. Not saying they cant win but they do score badly. Is it so unreasonable to assume KATCHIT must beat these pretenders. He is the Champion Hurdler. Would you not expect him to beat CELESTIAL HERO a 4 year old who has never faced an older horse before and is having his first run of the season. Can he not give 4lbs and 2lbs to the 4 year olds in the race. When we get to March we will be discussing the bad record of 5 year olds in the Champion Hurdle. KATCHIT overcame that and both BINOCULAR and CRACK AWAY JACK will face the same problems next March. Surely you would rather bet the horse that overcame a very hard statistic that lasted decades over two 4 year olds and a Mare in Chomba Womba. As for this theory that KATCHIT had a better chance at Cheltenham – That may be true but I think thats got into peoples minds as they have seen him run at Cheltenham so many times before. It is also an assumption that will add 2 points to his price. His record right handed is perfectly fine and he has had two warm up runs to gain full fitness. I think the ground beat him at Kempton forst time out and he was givinglumps of weight away last time. His 3rd run of the year – a smaller field and back at just about level weights we may be saying after the race that KATCHIT was far too big a price for a champion hurdle winner running against 4 year olds and mares at these weights.

Regards

Guy

Horse Betting Blog

2pts Barcelona to beat Real Madrid -1 on the Asian handicap, 21/20 VC or 41/40 Bet365 (Saturday 13th December 9pm ko)

The first “El Classico” of the season looks set to be the most one sided in a long time. Barcelona have the bookmakers running for cover and have been chalked up as short as 1/2, in an attempt to put people off backing them. They are the most in form team in Europe right now and are destroying everything in their path. A little over a month ago they beat Almeria 5-0 in the Nou camp, followed by a 4-1 win at Malaga and a 6-0 hammering of Vallodolid. Whilst impressive, these results were against inferior opposition and we had to wait for the run of fixtures against the big guns in La Liga to start, to see just how good Barca are. They answered this question in emphatic style with a 3-0 away win in Sevilla. This was followed up last week by a 4-0 hammering of Valencia, a team that had previously conceded just three times away from home, oh, and their leading scorer, Samuel Etoo, was suspended for this game too. Barcelona are the top scorers in Europe with 44 goals in 14 games, an average of 3.14 per game! They do not take their foot of the gas when they are a goal up, they keep going until the final whistle. They also have the best defensive record in La Liga, conceding just nine goals. Their twenty match unbeaten record in all competitions was ended by Shaktahr on Tuesday night, but it was a meaningless result with nearly the entire first team rested for this fixture.

Real Madrid have endured a torrid time of late. They were dumped out of the Copa Del Rey by an unheard of lower league side, then beaten home and away in the Champions league by Juventus, before scraping through to the knockout stages with a 1-0 win away at BATE Borisov. In the league they were beaten by Valladolid and Getafe and only scraped a 1-0 home win over bottom club Recreativo. Following last week’s home defeat to Sevilla, manager Bernd Schuster declared that it was “impossible” for Madrid to beat Barcelona tomorrow and that it would be “their season”. He might as well have said “sack me now”, as such defeatist rhetoric went down very badly with the supporters and the club. Schuster got his wish on Tuesday when his contract was terminated and he got his pay off. Unfortunately this was about the same time I was suggesting that Zenit might be worth a small interest if you wanted a bet on this week’s Champions league fixtures. The appointment of Ramos before this game obviously changed things somewhat. However, getting a result in a meaningless game against Zenit is one thing, getting something from the Nou camp is quite another. The removal of the unpopular Schuster will have given Madrid a lift but Ramos is not a magician. He will need weeks not days, to sort out Real’s defensive problems and although one or two reinforcements will arrive in January, Ramos will have to wait until the summer before the real rebuilding can take place. So the side he puts out against Barca will be the same one that has conceded 24 goals in La Liga already this season. He cannot change it, as there is nobody to bring in, such are Real Madrid’s injury problems. This week Ruben De La Red joined Diarra and Van Nistelrooy on the list of Madrid players ruled out for the rest of the season. Heinze, Pepe and Miguel Torres are also out of this fixture. They are joined by suspended duo Marcelo and Robben leaving Real literally down to the bare bones. Wesley Sneijder is also injured at the moment, but Real’s injury problems are so bad that he has been named in the squad anyway and will join Saviola on the bench as possibly the only two substitutes you will have heard of. The others will be players from the youth team. So Ramos has extremely limited options if he needs to make any changes. Crucially, left sided duo Marcelo and Robben being suspended has left a gaping hole in an already unbalanced side. With possibly the most dangerous right sided duo in the world about to fill that hole tomorrow night, in Messi and Alves, it couldn’t get much worse for Real. Reserve right back Salgado will have to fill in at left back and do his best to shackle Messi whilst Drenthe will play left midfield and try to stop Alves’s rampaging runs forward. Much criticised Metzelder will have to come in at centre back, whilst Sergio Ramos moves to right back. Between Metzelder, Salgado and the severely out of form Casillas in goal, I just cannot see how Real will prevent Barca from scoring, they are averaging over three goals per game remember. I know that this is a big derby game, and the cliche says that form is supposed to go out of the window, but I cannot see past a convincing Barcelona victory. They will be keen to open up a gap at the top and seek revenge for last season’s 4-1 defeat at the Bernabeau under Rijkaard. If Barcelona win by just one goal we will get our money back, but if they win by two or more, which I think is extremely likely, we will be collecting our winnings.

Minimum price to take – 4/5

The Oracle

Click Below To visit The Oracle’s Home Page

football betting tips

Saturday December 13th

No Bets Today

We have lost Cheltenham after an unscheduled inspection
this morning and thats robbed the message of several good
previews and possible bets. Very dissapointing as it was
a mouth watering card. As Lingfield has also been lost as
well there really has not been much I could offer today so
I am afraid its a quiet Saturday looking at a handful of the Southwell
races and no advised bets. The weather has won today and turned the
day into a poor racing day.

If you need an interest today

SOUTHWELL 1.15

13/8 Savaronola, 5/2 Eureka Moment, 3/1 Colourful Move, 10/1 Piermarini, 14/1 Jayyid, 16/1 Monaadi, 100/1 Sweet Seville.

This is a 12f maiden for horses aged 3 and 4 and it forces a guess as so many of these are hard to beat.
I’d look to oppose the Curley Leisure horse SAVARONOLA.
He looks to have been over estimated like most of his connections runners.
I dont like the fact he has been hurdling. I think there is a stamina doubt.
His sire has never bred a 12f winner yet and a long absence doesnt help.
I dont want a horse like COLOURFUL MOVE as he was sold for just £800 recently and that gives
volumes away about both his soundness and ability.
The big priced  Monaadi and Sweet Seville look out of their depth .

PIERMARINI is out having been hammered in a claiming race.

I could only bet EUREKA MOMENT or JAYYID who were 3rd and 4th in the same maiden last time.
EUREKA MOMENT would be my choice.

Best Current Odds 11/4

Ladbrokes, Tote , Blue Sq

Guy Ward

Click below for Guy’s home page

horse racing tips

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport

The race for the Premiership continues this weekend as Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea look to close the gap on current leaders Liverpool. Arsenal are the first in action this weekend when they travel to the Riverside to take on Middlesbrough, while Manchester United must wait till Saturday tea time to face Spurs at White Hart Lane. Chelsea could be four points behind Liverpool by the time they welcome West Ham to Stamford Bridge on Sunday, while earlier that day Newcastle make the longest journey in the Premiership as they head to the South Coast to take on Portsmouth at Fratton Park.

Weekend Football

1st SCORER 2nd CHANCE

Applies to all Premier League matches this weekend

Place a First Goal scorer bet and if your player fails to score the first goal but scores at any other time in the match VCbet will refund your stake as a free bet on any future match.1

Middlesbrough v Arsenal, Saturday, Sky Sports 1, 12:45pm

Arsenal could temporarily take third spot form Man United if they win in the North East, although their recent inconsistency will be a worry for Arsene Wenger. Despite their morale boosting 2-1 win over Chelsea two weeks ago, they have suffered two defeats in their last three games, and narrowly beat Wigan 1-0 in the other. Burnley beat a young side 2-0 in the Carling Cup, but it was a near full strength side that under performed against Porto in the Champions League in mid week. Middlesbrough’s inconsistent form continued last week as they lost for the fourth time this season after taking the lead in the game. Tuncay Sanli’s neat finish ten minutes from time at the KC stadium looked to have sealed the points for the Teesiders, but a Ross Turnbull own goal just two minutes later set up a grandstand finish. Marlon King converted a penalty five minutes from time following David Wheater’s challenge on Geovanni to end the game in dramatic fashion, and leave Gareth Southgate wondering how his team left Humberside without any points to show for it.

Middlesbrough are 4/1 with VCbet to win for the first time in five games, while Arsenal are 18/25 with CentreBet to maintain their slim Premiership hopes.

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United, Saturday, Setanta Sports 1, 5:30pm

Tottenham welcome Man United to White Hart Lane as they look to continue their revival under Harry Redknapp. They have won nine of the twelve games under his stewardship so far, and will certainly be looking up the table now, rather than over their shoulders as they were in the final days of Juande Ramos. The most notable development under Redknapp is the re-emergence of strikers Darren Bent and Roman Pavlyuchenko, who have notched fourteen goals between them since the change of manager at the end of October. Goalkeeper Heurelho Gomes is still causing some nervous moments at the back, but the return of Ledley King to the back four has restored some of the lost confidence. United sealed top spot in Group E with a 2-2 draw against Aalborg, although they were far from convincing on Wednesday night at Old Trafford. Despite Carlos Tevez giving the Red Devils the lead in the third minute, they conceded two goals in 15 minutes right before half time to give the Danish champions a surprise half time lead. Wayne Rooney put United back on level terms shortly after half time, but they were unable to break down the Danes again on a frustrating night. They can move to within two points of second place Chelsea here, but will not take this game lightly as Spurs continue to build their progression up the table.

Tottenham are the 10/3 underdogs with VCbet to continue their Redknapp revival, while Manchester United are 4/5 favourites with CentreBet to close the gap to Chelsea.

Portsmouth v Newcastle United, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 1:30pm

Joe Kinnear’s side make the 345 mile trip south to Fratton Park on Sunday as they look to extend their unbeaten streak to five games. They are, however, searching for their first win in six games against Tony Adams’ side, who have certainly entertained their fans in recent weeks. The 2-2 draw with AC Milan in the UEFA Cup was the highlight of a five game streak that saw 20 goals, and Pompey will again look to striking pair Jermaine Defoe and Peter Crouch to lead from the front. Crouch was on target last week in the 1-1 draw at WBA, and Pompey will be looking to follow that up with a win here to take them to within a point of the UEFA cup places. Newcastle will be looking for maximum points for different reasons as just a point separates them from neighbours Sunderland in the relegation zone. They will want to make up from the disappointment of losing a two goal lead at home to Stoke last week, in a game that looked to be over at half time. Michael Owen had given them a two goal lead within 25 minutes, and before Mamady Sibide pulled one back on sixty minutes they looked to be cruising. However they could not withstand fierce pressure in the final minutes and finally succumbed to an injury time goal from Abdoulaye Faye.

Portsmouth are evens with VCbet to get back to winning ways, with Newcastle 5/2 with CentreBet to celebrate the long journey back with a win.

Chelsea v West Ham United, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 4:00pm

Chelsea successfully came through a potentially nervous night on Tuesday night as they qualified for the knockout stages of the Champions League thanks to a 2-1 victory over CFR Cluj. Despite taking the lead through Salomon Kalou shortly before half time, they were never at their best, and this was demonstrated as Yussouf Kone headed an equaliser to put the Blues on the brink of elimination. However, the introduction of Didier Drogba proved vital as he scored the winner 20 minutes from time to seal the blues’ place in the next round. They will be looking to capitalise on any mistakes Liverpool may make this weekend when they welcome West Ham to Stamford Bridge, and the first return of Gianfranco Zola since his time in a Chelsea shirt. The little Italian will be aiming to get one over on his old side as the Hammers look to bounce back from last weeks 2-0 defeat to Spurs. Prior to that they had been on a three match unbeaten run, which included a win at Sunderland and holding league leaders Liverpool to a 0-0 draw at Anfield. Last weeks defeat leaves them fifth from bottom, just three points outside of the drop zone, and they will need to be at their best defensively if they hope to take anything from Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea are 1/4 with CentreBet to win another three points towards their Premiership challenge, while West Ham are 14/1 at VCbet to celebrate Gianfranco Zola’s return to Stamford Bridge with a win.

Can you beat Victor?

You receive a mythical £1 on each correct score you choose. If your prediction is correct your mythical £1 will be settled at the VC Bet price on that correct score.

Every one who Beats Victor’s total points score from the four matches wins a £5 free bet and if you are the tipster with the largest overall return you win a £500 free bet!

Victor’s selections are…

Middlesbrough v Arsenal: 1-2
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United: 1-2
Portsmouth v Newcastle United: 2-2
Chelsea v West Ham: 4-1

Entry is free, simply register and open an account to take on Victor today!2

Weekend Horse Racing

FREE FALL …

Applies to all races at Cheltenham & Doncaster on Friday & Saturday.

If your selection FALLS, VCbet will refund your losing stake as a free bet on the following day’s racing!3

This weekend’s big race takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday at 2:30pm with the BoyleSports Gold Cup. Imperial Commander is the 15/8 favourite with CentreBet following his win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup back in November. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge was impressive that day, its only outing this year, as it took the lead around the halfway mark and by the second last had blown all the other challengers away. Silverburn, expected to be Imperial Commanders closest competitor this Saturday, did not jump well that day in the Gold Cup but will certainly challenge for top spot here. The combination of Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh is never far from the front in these big races, and the brother of Denman is 5/1 at VCbet to follow up his stable mates success. Three Mirrors was another horse that impressed in November, as he followed up a win at Ayr towards the end of last season with an encouraging fifth in the Gold Cup. The horse once again finished strongly at Cheltenham, and could be one to look out for in the closing stages in this slightly longer distance of 2m and 5f. Graham Lee may have instructions from trainer Ferdy Murphy to hold back in the early stages, ready for the 9/1 shot at CentreBet to charge coming towards the final few fences.

Open an account with any of the following bookmakers and receive a free bet:

CentreBet £20 Free Bet
VC Bet  £100 in Free Bets

Saturday Football Bet From Football Bets Service

( just a small snippet of his full client message )

1pt Double, Over 2.5 goals between Sporting Gijon and Atletico Madrid and Over 2.5 goals between Barcelona and Valencia, 17/20 and 67/100 CentreBet or 4/5 and 4/7 PaddyPower (Saturday 6th December 7pm and 9pm ko’s)

I am expecting goals in Spain on Saturday night and the prices for these two games don’t look short enough. Newly promoted Sporting Gijon’s home games are averaging 3.5 goals per game. Whilst they have improved in recent weeks, they have conceded heavily to the top attacking sides in La Liga. They let four in against Sevilla, Barca stuck six past them and Real Madrid netted seven times! Five of their six home games have featured three goals or more so far. In Atletico Madrid, they face a team that has scored four goals in one match six times in all competitions already. Atletico’s away games are averaging 3.8 goals per game. Atletico are likely to see this as a good opportunity to take all three points and close the gap on the top sides, who all play each other this weekend. 17/20 is far too big. You may think that 67/100 looks a little short for the Barca game? But when you look at the stats, it is not short enough. Barcelona are the highest scoring team in Europe at the moment and are averaging three goals per game! Their home games are averaging 4.5 goals per game! Since the start of last season, seventeen out of Barcelona’s twenty five home games have witnessed three goals or more (68% = just under 4/9). Four of Barcelona’s six home games this season have featured three or more goals. The two that didn’t had one big factor in common, Leo Messi didn’t start. Messi is, in my opinion, the best player on the planet at the moment, not only does he score goals but he creates loads of chances for team mates too. He is a major factor in Barcelona’s huge goals tally this season. Valencia games are averaging 3.2 goals per game this season, but admittedly, there tend to be more goals when they are at home. However, in their last six matches against Barcelona and Real Madrid, five have featured three goals or more. In David Villa they have a real goal threat themselves and he particularly enjoys playing at the Nou camp. He has scored in five of his last six visits. Barcelona won this fixture 6-0 last season and more goals are expected on Saturday evening.

Minimum prices to take – 4/6 and 1/2

Best Wishes

The Oracle

www.football-bets.co.uk

Saturday Horse Racing Bets From www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Gustavo (1.25 Sandown) –

best price 33/1 (sporting bet / Skybet) – EACH WAY

Approved Force (3.05 Sandown)

– take 22/1 best odds guaranteed atWilliam Hill – EACH WAY

Diriculous (3.30 Great Leighs)

- take 2/1 best odds guaranteed at William Hill / Stan James / Boyle Sports – WIN

Saturday Racing

First some trends – 15 years worth

2.35 Sandown – Tingle Creek Chase – 2 miles (Grade 1)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: favourites
have a fairly good record, but it looks best to concentrate on the top three
in the betting as they have provided 80% of the winners. Indeed focusing on
horses priced 15/2 or shorter has provided every single winner in the last 15
years. From there, pay special attention to horses either making their seasonal
debuts, and/or those who were first or second in the betting on their most recent
start. Moving onto negatives, if they raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time
out this then there is almost certainly value looking elsewhere, as is there
looking for horses that finished 3^rd or worse LTO (having completed
course). This process should pinpoint a clear trends pick. In terms of age,
5 years have a good record from a small number of runners, while 9 year olds
or older look poor value.

Conclusion – Master Minded
has a good trends profile; slightly better than second favourite TidalBay, but
TidalBay looks the value price of the pair to me.

3.05 Sandown – Listed handicap hurdle 2 miles ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: favourites
have a poor record which is no surprise considering the race usually attracts
a big field and hence is a competitive affair. Having said that outsiders have
a poor record also, so it seems best to focus on horses priced under 20/1. The
bottom five in the weights have won 67% of the races from just 37% of the runners,
so these horses merit close scrutiny, as do horses won last time out. Horses
to avoid seem to be horses at the top of the weights, beaten favourites last
time out, 7 year olds and older, and horses that have been off the track for
7 or more weeks.

Conclusion – from a trends
perspective Spear Thistle looks the one to be on.

At an each way price Approved
Force looks interesting. Had good form as 3yo and he looks overpriced. Hills
offer best odds guaranteed at 22/1 and that rates good each way value.

2.00 Sandown – Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – 2 miles (Grade
2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: the top
two in the market have dominated this event winning a all bar one of the races,
with favourites doing especially well winning 67% of them. From here you need
to focus on good jumpers as none of the winners had previous fallen in their
careers. Last time out winners have a good record, while horses that ran at
Cheltenham last time out have a good record also.

Conclusion – of the front
two in the market, second favourite Araldur has the better profile and at 7/2
looks better value.

——————–

1.25 Sandown – this is an
open handicap hurdle but one horse stands out for me at the early prices. Gustavo
hails from a stable that seems to be running into form and he has plenty of
other positives as well. He has a good record fresh, has a good record on right
handed tracks (4 wins, 2 placed from 8 ) and acts on the ground. The jockey
looks a potential negative but he has an 18% strike rate for Venetia Williams
so perhaps that is not a worry. At 33/1 best price at sporting bet and Sky bet
/ mid 40s on Betfair he looks a worthwhile punt. If you don’t have an account
with sporting bet / Sky bet then take the best odds guaranteed at either bet
365 or William Hill (both price up at 25/1).

3.30 Great Leighs – Diriculous
looks a solid favourite and 2/1 looks a fair bet to me.

This message was provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday December 6th

Just a small snippet from my main message today for the blog.
( main service at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk )

No Account Bet

Todays Selection

Chepstow 3.45

GILES CROSS – Each Way

We came into this week in brilliant form but it was about slowing down and getting used to the new Racing Post site. We have had only 3 selections this week as I have kept things pretty tight. One of these was a short priced winner. The two other selections were 10/1 (placed) and 20/1 (Lost) so we have neither made or lost any ground on the week. I am getting used to the new site now and I’m feeling better about it but I dont think I’m ready yet to start thinking about account bets so I will stay with selections today.

In terms of selections on the day it has been a very tight call. I had 5 options for selections today and whilst none looked like account bet strength
they all looked closely matched and as good as each other so there is a serious danger I have picked the wrong bets of several options today but I will list my best options now so you can see them

Wetherby 12.10 – Glenary 3/1 was a potential selection
Chepstow 1.35 – Arctic Shadow 8/1 with Elton 6/1 a saver
Great Leighs 3.30 – Beat The Bell each way 6/1
Chepstow 3.45 – Giles Cross 4/1 is an each way option
Great Leighs 4.00 – Port De La Ponch could beat the fav

In the end I went with GILES CROSS as the selection today. He is generally 4/1 and 9/2 with some independants and I like his chance but it is a day where several appeal but there isnt much between then and none stand out as outstanding hence no account bet.

Blog Comment
Prices above correct at time of send to clients proper.
Best early price now at time of blog posting
7/2 at centre bet blue sq Tote

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CHEPSTOW 3.45

7/4 Gullible Gordon, 4/1 Mr Bennett, 5/1 Kayf Aramis, 7/1 Faneuil Hall, 8/1 Giles Cross, 12/1 C’Monthehammers, 20/1 Champage A Gogo, 20/1 Mr Bee Gee, 25/1 Atherstone Hill, 33/1 Irish Power, 33/1 Off The Shelf, 50/1 Society Night, 66/1 North Run.

The rest of Chepstow is just poor trend races and races that dont offer me much at all so I just think its best to leave the majority of races alone. The Maiden Hurdle at 3.45 may just be worth a second mention. The favourite GULLIBLE GORDON is impossible to judge having flopped at odds on last time but it would worry me and connections have said they are mystified why he ran so badly and I would just rather go each way on an alternative and I think there is one. Horses that ran just once – and once this season and placed in that race had a really strong record and I would argue that GILES CROSS who fits that pattern is one of the best profiles in the race and would be my danger to the favourite and the best each way bet in the race. He was 3rd on his debut and the runner up came out and won the Grade 2 hurdle at Sandown yesterday.

Best Wishes
Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Win A Mini Cooper at Bet365

Bet365 are giving away 3 Mini Coopers and more this December

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Money Back Specials From PaddyPower

This weeks specials include Money-Back Specials on the Premier League and Boxing, not to mention a fantastic Scoop6 cashback offer!

Saturday Football – Money-Back Special!

Left in Roons!!
Man United v Sunderland
Saturday 6th December 5.30pm Setanta

If Wayne Rooney scores the last goal Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st / last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match.

Applies to singles placed before kick off only
Max Refund €300/£200 per customer/bet.
Paddy Power football rules apply.
Applies to 1st / last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast bets only.
If Rooney plays no part in the match special will revert to last goal scored outside the box.
Own goals do not count.
Does not apply to customers whose language of registration is Spanish.

Boxing – Money-Back Special!

This Round’s on Us!
De La Hoya v Pacquiao

If the fight finishes in the first 6 Rounds we will refund all losing rounds bets on this fight.

Applies to singles placed before event starts only, does not apply to betting in running.
Applies if either fighter wins by KO or TKO in rounds 1 to 6.
Applies to bets on given rounds only and not to winning group of rounds, total rounds or to win on points.
Max refund €300/£200 per customer/bet.
Paddy Power Boxing rules apply.
In addition to these specials, this Saturday we will again be offering 10% cashback on all losing Scoop6 bets placed online – there will be no limit applied to the amount refunded on each bet.

Se full T&Cs on the PaddyPower site:
10% cashback applies to Scoop6 bets placed on the PaddyPower website or Paddy Power Dial a Bet only.
Does not apply to any other Tote bets.
Does not apply to bets placed in Paddy Power shops.
No maximum refund.
Refunds will be credited by 8pm Sat 6th December.