Premiership Soccer Bet from Football-Bets.co.uk

1pt Sunderland to beat Bolton in the Premiership, 11/8 Coral or 13/10 Betfred, Blue Square, Ladbrokes and Tote (Saturday 29th November 3pm ko)

A price of 11/8 about Sunderland beating Bolton is an example of a bookmaker overreacting to a short term trend. It suggests that there is nothing between the two sides without home advantage and maybe even that Bolton are the better team. Sunderland are on a poor run of form, whilst Bolton have picked up a bit lately, but only two points separate the teams in the table. Sunderland are one place above the relegation zone but the league is so tight that a couple of wins would see them challenging for a Uefa cup spot. In my opinion, Sunderland have much better players and a better manager than Bolton. The likes of Cisse, Diouf, Kenwynne Jones, Malbranque, Richardson, Ferdinand and Craig Gordon, would walk into Gary Megson’s team. Sunderland have lost their last three home games but all teams have a bad run at some point in the season and I cant see it lasting much longer, especially with Bolton as the visitors tomorrow. Sunderland’s home form under Roy Keane has been very good in general and they just need a little bit of luck to go their way. They had eighteen attempts on goal against West Ham last week and were unlucky to take nothing from the game. Bolton are not a side I rate highly at all. I think Sunderland are a little bit of value to mark Keane’s 100th game in charge, by repeating last seasons feat of taking all three points from this fixture.

Minimum price to take – 11/10

This Analysis was provided by The Oracle.

Click the link below to visit his site.

Football Bets

My Hennessy conclusion is that the bet is both a win bet on ALBERTAS RUN and a saver on BIG BUCKS but like many I’m worried about the ground for ALBERTAS RUN. Midweek I was confident he would win this race but many little things have conspired against him and my confidence has drained a little away from him. I have backed him at a shorter price than he is now and the potential for me to have the race wrong now is a strong possibility.

I hope he wins but I cant pretend I am as bullish as I was 48 hours ago.

This is certainly not Account Bet strength but I hope you enjoy the analysis and find it an aid if trying to unravel the Hennessey yourself.
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NEWBURY 2:40

HENNESSY GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 3 (4yo+) 3m2f110y

Racing Post Forecast Prices
6/1 Air Force One, Big Buck´s, 15/2 Island Flyer, 8/1 Albertas Run, 11/1 Oedipe, 14/1 Slim Pickings, 16/1 Dear Villez, High Chimes, Royal County Star, 20/1 Snoopy Loopy, Verasi, 25/1 Knowhere, 50/1 Always Waining, Madison Du Berlais, Monkerhostin, My Will.

SELECTION- ALBERTAS RUN  ( best current price 9/1 PaddyPower, CanBet, pagebet )

SAVER – BIG BUCKS  ( best current price 5/1 CanBet )

This race strongly favours lightly raced, progressive second-season chasers. If you look at the last 15 years of the Hennessy Gold Cup it has been dominated by horses that had between 6 and 20 races before. We haven’t had a winner that had under 5 starts. On the other end of the scale Horses that had More than 20 Career races had a disastrous 0-59 record in this race. All 59 got beaten and not that Many were Placed. You don’t want a seasoned handicapper who has limited potential and whose form is clearly an open book and who has had ample time to be accurately assessed by the Handicapper. These types end up giving weight to horses that have far more scope and Improvement and horses that are very well handicapped. The following tables show how many runs the recent past winners have had and how many handicap runs they have had as well.

* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy

10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16

* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate the Hennessy

0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8

* Finishing 1st-2nd or 3rd last time is important

Recent form seems important. You must have been placed 1st 2nd or 3rd last time out. I have looked at every winner of this going back to 1987 and every one of those winners managed a 1-2-3 Placing last time out. Such is the test of this Class race that we should be ignoring anything that did not have the ability to place last time assuming they do not have the Class to win a Hennessy or the jumping prowess. Since 1987 there have been well over 100 Horses that failed to finish placed or better on their latest start. None of these 100 + runners won.

I don’t want VERASI. I do like the horse. I had him as a saver in last years Sun Alliance at 25/1 so its nothing personal. You can argue that he is over exposed for a race like this but he has only had 6 chase starts so that’s harsh. He fails the statistic that demands a 1-2-3 finish last time out but the one factor I really do not forgive him for is his flat form. This is a Flat bred horse that started his career on the flat. You can go back decades and you wont find any Hennessy winner starting his career on the flat in England.

ROYAL COUNTY STAR looks all wrong. We haven’t had a winner warm up over hurdles. The run he had wasn’t good enough anyway. He did not achieve enough last time. His handicap mark looks stiff and he doesn’t have half the improvement of most of these.

I don’t want KNOWWHERE with top weight. That’s a tall order. The two recent Top weight winners Denman and Trablogan were both Sun Alliance winners and KNOWWHERE looks exposed. He was well beaten in last years race with 10lbs less weight. He has a career high mark and having ran in 12 handicap chase’s is not the profile of a Hennessy winner.

SNOOPY LOOPY is also exposed and has had far more handicap runs than ideal. He was a huge price for this race before he won last week in Kauto Star’s race at 33/1. There must be a huge doubt he can reproduce his best just 7 days later. I have to take him on.

SLIM PICKINGS isn’t for me. I don’t like the fact he comes from a 2 mile race which is not a good thing or a successful thing in this race. I think he looks exposed. Is a horse that has lost his last 14 races likely to win a Hennessy. I don’t think so.

HIGH CHIMES is a seasonal debutant. Several recent winners were making their debuts that season but they were younger. HIGH CHIMES is a 9 year old. If you look at the last 17 Hennessy’s and look at seasonal debutants aged 8 or more you find a 0-42 record. That’s a worry for him. So to is his handicap mark as he won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last March off 127 and has to run from 141 today. There hasn’t been a similar winner of the Hennessy in recent memory so I would not see HIGH CHIMES as my selection in this years race.

DEAR VILLEZ can’t be discounted but he isn’t for me. He won well last time in Ireland and passes most trends in this race. He is clearly Paul Nicholls’s second string. I wonder if he has the class. After all go back to last years Cheltenham festival. DEAR VILLEZ ran and fell in the Jewson Novice Handicap. Compare that with ALBERTAS RUN and AIR FORCE ONE and others that were running in the Grade 1 Sun Alliance Chase and only have to concede a couple of lbs to him. I just don’t see him as good enough.

I don’t want to go with OEDIPE. He is a 6yo seasonal debutant. I haven’t got a big problem with that at all as State of Play (2006) was one. However if you look at the seasonal debutants that have won this race – they had all ran in better class than he has. They were all more experienced. They all ran far better than he did last time and none of them stepped up as far in trip. OEDIPE is a notorious poor work horse so he is has hardly been galloping the house down. He is also a French Bred and there hasn’t been many of those win the race. I think he is out of his depth and I worry his trainer says he is a “hard horse to get fit”.

ISLAND FLYER

One the face of it this horse has a strong profile and comes from a decent trial race and its easy to understand why there has been lots of ante post money for him this week. That said the value has probably gone now. The one trends worry I have with him is his class. ISLAND FLYER is rated 132 and that would make him the lowest rated winner in at least 20 years. Every winner since the 1980’s was rated 135 or more and its just in the back of my mind that off bottom weight in the last two furlongs he could just be fighting to get home in this class on soft ground and his low rating worries me. After all 9 months ago as he was winning a cheap novice chase others were running and winning Sun Alliances and his flaw could be whether he has the class to win.

AIR FORCE ONE

This horse must have a great chance. Statistically he is not unlike One Man who won this in 1994 and both came from the Sun Alliance and AIR FORCE ONE achieved more in that race and had more experience. Both were 6 year olds with 1 handicap run and one run that season. One Man (1994) won with 10st though and AIR FORCE ONE has a much bigger weight to carry. Recent Hennessy’s have shown high weights are fine in this race and AIR FORCE ONE has a strong overall profile. There are two issues to consider. One may be the general theory that he may be best on right handed tracks. The other is whether he wants soft ground. In terms of the Left Handed Track I don’t think there is enough evidence to suggest that. He has ran 5 times on left handed tracks. Even if you ignore his win at Fontwell when odds on in a Figure 8 track you cant draw any conclusions. His other races were 2-5-5-6 on left handed tracks. One of the times he was 50/1. Another was his chasing debut pitched into a Grade 2 chase. He was well beaten in the Sun Alliance at Cheltenham but his 2nd was also there in the Spa Hurdle at the festival and there is nothing wrong with that. The track wouldn’t be a major concern for me as the evidence is not compelling. In terms of the ground you would worry if it was soft. His connections have given excuses before for defeats blaming soft and dead ground. There has to be a slight stamina doubt on the ground as well so he isn’t bomb proof. I also don’t like the fact he has run on the Flat before albeit in Germany as very few Hennessy winners started racing on the flat. I see him and BIG BUCKS as the main contenders for the “saver” but much as I greatly respect his chance I prefer others marginally.

BIG BUCKS

Initially I felt that the favourite was worth opposing as a 5 year old but I would not be too dogmatic about that now. I have had a big rethink about 5 year olds as they have won similar other races at this time of year. BIG BUCKS is a 5 year old. The Hennessy was first run in 1957 and the 51 renewals of the race have never thrown up a 5 year old winner. That must be considered a problem for BIG BUCKS but not many have tried – just 4 in the last two decades and hardly any of the 5 year olds that have run have been fancied and they have had a 3rd with Eudipe in 1997. I couldn’t make him a negative on the back of a statistic that’s admittedly worrying but more importantly not proven. I think trip and ground demand he is a saver

SELECTION

ALBERTAS RUN

I really fancy this horse. He is trying to be the 3rd Sun Alliance Chase winner to win this race in the last 4 seasons after Denman and Trablogan did the double. On his profile he is Similar to Kings Road the 2000 winner in that they both ran in the Cheltenham Bumper early in their career and then the Sun Alliance. He is an even closer type to 2005 winner Trablogan who was also owned by Trevor Hemmings as ALBERTAS RUN is. Trablogan (2005) also ran in the Champion Bumper and won the Sun Alliance as well and ALBERTAS RUN attempts to do the same. He is the right age and a second season chaser. Statistically the only trend he fails was that he wasn’t 1-2-3 last time out. He was 4th of 4 on his seasonal debut but I can forgive him that. He probably was not trained for that race. The trip was too short and he met a top class horse. He was clearly unfit and that was the same Carlisle chase that his trainer ran Exotic Dancer a couple of years ago and he flopped that running a lifeless race before winning the Paddy Power Gold cup next time out. ALBERTAS run holds two wins over Air Force One and has a touch of class as a Sun Alliance Chase winner. His owner will want to win this race again and I think ALBERTAS RUN is good value to win the race. His chance will come down to the ground. If its not too soft he will win for me and if it is it lets in Big Bucks the saver.

Regards

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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Bet on this Weekend’s Sport

Local pride is all to play for this weekend with three local derbies in the Premiership. Newcastle visit the Riverside to face Middlesbrough on Saturday, while on Super Sunday Blue faces Red in Manchester as City play United. On Sunday afternoon Chelsea welcome Arsenal in the London derby, with a chance for the Blues to possibly kill off the Gunners title ambitions. The Hennesy Gold Cup is the big race of the weekend at Newbury, where Paul Nicholls will be looking to replicate his success from last year with the phenomenal Denman.

Weekend Football

Manchester City v Manchester United, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 1:30pm

City welcome United to the City of Manchester Stadium, with their two victories in last years Manchester derby’s fresh in their memories. City won this fixture 1-0 last season, although it will probably be the 2-1 win at Old Trafford that they will draw from in the build up to this weekend. United will be looking to avenge those defeats, the first time City had done the double over United in nearly 40 years. They have overcome their slow start and are now looking to close down Chelsea and Liverpool’s 8 point lead over them.

Manchester City are 3/1 with Pagebet bookmaker to claim a third successive win in the Manchester Derby, while Manchester United are 4/5 with CentreBet to claim top honours in the city.

If Carlos Tevez scores at anytime during Manchester City v Manchester United, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Man City v Man United finishes 0-0 BGBET will refund all losing correct score bets on that game.¹

Chelsea v Arsenal, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 4:30pm

A respondent Arsenal will travel to Stamford Bridge on Sunday following their midweek Champions League win. Niklas Bendtners late goal against Dynamo Kiev eased some of the pressure that had been building with recent poor results, and that had been heightened following William Gallas’ comments last week. Chelsea will still fancy their chances against the Gunners, and will look to exploit any weaknesses that have been exposed in recent events.

Chelsea are the 4/6 favourites with BGBET to pull further clear of the Gunners at the top, while Arsenal are 4/1 with VCbet to get their season back on track with a victory.

If Joe Cole scores at anytime during Chelsea v Arsenal, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

Liverpool v West Ham United, Monday, Setanta Sports 1, 8:00pm

Liverpool face West Ham in the Monday night game, hoping Arsenal would have helped them to stay at the top of the Premiership. However, if the Gunners do not beat Chelsea then Liverpool will need to win this game to reclaim their place at the top. West Ham will enter this game with some confidence following their win over Sunderland last week. That was the Hammers first win since September, although they face a difficult task at Anfield.

Liverpool are 1/3 favourites with bookmakers VCbet to continue their time at the top of the Premiership, with West Ham 9/1 at Pagebet to shock the league leaders at Anfield.

If Dirk Kuyt scores at anytime during Liverpool v West Ham United, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

Championship and SPL football, throughout the weekend, Sky Sports & Setanta Sports

There is a full set of Championship football this weekend, including the Midlands derby where Wolves entertain Birmingham. These two local rivals sit first and second in the Championship respectively, and Birmingham will be looking to cut Wolve’s six point lead over them at Molineux this weekend. The two Welsh sides in the Championship meet on Sunday when rivals Cardiff travel to Swansea, with both in the hunt for a playoff place. Two other sides just outside of the playoff places meet on Saturday when Bristol City travel to Deepdale to meet Preston, while Monday night’s game sees Reading attempt to strengthen their playoff position against struggling Coventry. In the SPL Rangers meet Hearts as they look to close the 4 point gap to rivals Celtic when they meet third place Hearts on Saturday.

If Sam Vokes scores at anytime during Wolves v Birmingham, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Nacho Novo scores at anytime during Hearts v Rangers, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Jon Parkin scores at anytime during Preston v Bristol City, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Febian Brandy scores at anytime during Swansea v Cardiff, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.¹

If Stephen Hunt scores at anytime during Reading v Coventry, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer bet stakes on the match.¹

Place a correct score bet on any of the above matches this week, and if it gets beat by an injury time goal BGBET will refund all losing correct score stakes on that match.¹

Destruction Derby

If any player gets sent off in the 2 derby matches on Sunday, Man. United v Man. City OR Chelsea v Arsenal, Pagebet will refund all 1st goalscorer and correct score bets on the match the red card occurs in.2

1st SCORER 2nd CHANCE

Applies to all Premier League matches this weekend

Place a First Goal scorer bet and if your player fails to score the first goal but scores at any other time in the match VCbet will refund your stake as a free bet on any future match.3

Can you beat Victor?

You receive a mythical £1 on each correct score you choose. If your prediction is correct your mythical £1 will be settled at the VC Bet price on that correct score.

Every one who Beats Victor’s total points score from the four matches wins a £5 free bet and if you are the tipster with the largest overall return you win a £500 free bet!

Victor’s selections are…

Aston Villa v Fulham: 3-1
Middlesbrough v Newcastle United: 2-2
Manchester City v Manchester United: 2-3
Chelsea v Arsenal: 2-1

Entry is free, simply register and open an account to take on Victor today!4

Weekend Horse Racing

This weekends racing takes us to Newbury where the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase at 2.40pm on Saturday is the headline race.

Denman romped home at 5/1 to take this race last year, and his winning trainer Paul Nicholls is back again with three runners this year. Big Buck’s looks to be Nicholl’s best chance at successive winners, as he is a 5/1 shot with Pagebet. Air Force One and Character Building are leading the chasing pack in the betting, at 6/1with CentreBet and 7/1 at BGBET respectively.

Paul Maloney won this race is 2006, and is looking for a repeat on High Chimes, a 16/1 chance with BGBET, while Tony McCoy saddles Albertas Run for Jonjo O’Neill, a 10/1 shot with Pagebet.

Jump for Joy

If your horse jumps the last fence in the lead and gets beaten Pagebet will refund your win only single on that horse.5

If your horse gets beat by a Short Head or Nose in the Hennesy Gold Cup Chase at 14.40pm at Newbury on Saturday, BGBET will refund your win stakes in the form of free bets.6

FIRST OR LAST FREE FALL …

Applies to the Hennessy Gold Cup, 2.40pm Saturday at Newbury

If your selection FALLS , VCbet will refund your losing stake as a free bet on Sunday’s racing!

Open an account with any of the following bookmakers and receive a free bet:

Pagebet £25 Free Bet
VC Bet £100 in Free Bets
CentreBet £20 Free Bet
BGBET £100 Free Bet

Many a punter skilled at identifying value bets has come undone by poor staking.

When it comes to the issue of betting bank management it is important to understand that

the shoe must fit the foot in terms of matching a staking plan to any particular selection set.

It is unlikely that a staking plan suitable for high strike rate betting selections will also be suitable for long shots even if those long shots do make a level stakes profit.

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WBX Second Birthday Celebration

WBX.COM (World Bet Exchange) celebrates its second birthday on Tuesday November 25^th after a “highly successful second year of trading”.

The launch of WBX coincided with the first running of the WBX.COM ‘Fighting Fifth’ Hurdle and the introduction of the WBX Triple Crown.

The WBX Triple Crown rewards connections with £1 million if the Fighting Fifth winner goes on to be victorious in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and then the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham

The WBX Triple Crown has yet to be won but with the third running of the ‘Fighting Fifth’ under the WBX sponsorship banner being run this Saturday we are optimistic of success this year.

Following on from a fantastic first year, when WBX was winner of the 2007 Netprophet Award for Best Exchange and received a Silver Award at Gambling Online Magazine’s Annual Readers’ Poll, WBX has now established itself as a force in the bet Exchange market place.

In the past 12 months alone the company has seen its Members wager over £500 million against each other. This is a staggering amount for a new Exchange launched in only 2006 with the aim of providing an alternative for bet Exchange users.

A recent study of commissions paid at WBX in comparison with the same activity using Betfair’s commission structure revealed WBX Members would have paid 35% more at Betfair.

During the year ended 30th September 2008 WBX has continued to invest in the development of the trading platform with the introduction of innovative technologies and will do so in 2009 and beyond.

The Exchange has recently carried out a significant upgrade, the biggest since launch, which has brought significant improvements to the site. The most notable addition is a new user-friendly market view interface. This allows members to view markets in Exchange View or Sportsbook View. Both are fully customisable through Market Depth and Minimum Win settings.
Members also have access to dutching tools and the ability to share markets on forums and other media via our ‘Market Snapshot’ feature.

WBX Members are now also able to deposit and withdraw funds via Moneybookers in addition to NETeller and NETeller China.

Following the successful recent launch of morning BAGS, WBX will soon be offering markets for every UK greyhound meeting as well ascontinued expansion of its coverage of European soccer. A new handicap interface is also on the horizon.

As well as new markets and functionality there is also the imminent launch of WBX’s PDA/Mobile betting platform, a specially adapted version of WBX optimised for use via PDA/Mobile devices that offers the same value prices and betting opportunities as the main WBX website.

WBX, licensed and regulated in the UK by the Gambling Commission, understands that Members want to know that their stake money is safely and securely held. WBX’s Members Funds are held under trust deed, ring-fenced in separate bank accounts and held within a separate company (WBX Members Funds Limited) that does not otherwise trade. We believe that WBX is still the only Exchange where Members Funds are inspected independently every quarter and where the results are published on the website.

WBX.COM CEO Malcolm Gray said, “When we launched in November 2006 it was always our intention to provide an alternative to the current market leader. We have provided that and will continue to offer a choice to Members, old and new.

We have experienced some fantastic highs through the year but Euro 2008 was particularly good for us. New Members were given a football shirt of a nation of their choice to celebrate the European Championships despite the absence of the Home Nations. As an extra bonus to existing Members we offered free bet specials on all matches.

WBX are committed to providing a reliable, efficient and user-friendly Exchange where Members are rewarded for their support and not punished. It was always our intention to put the Exchange player back in control. With the help of our Members I am hugely optimistic for 2009 and hopefully it will start with the WBX Triple Crown being won for the first time.

I would like to thank all our Members who have joined us so far and the record numbers who are betting on the Exchange on a daily basis and for those yet to join us, why not? We will match your existing commission rate on your current Exchange and you will join an Exchange where you are a person and not just a number”.

The Four Tops – this week’s free bet offer from Betfair

They’re top of their respective leagues because they are the most successful teams so far this season – and now we’re offering you the chance to back The Four Tops, safe in the knowledge we’ll give you a free bet if they let you down. Simply place a single fourfold, staking £10 or more, on our Four Tops fourfold, which is backing Chelsea, Wolves, Scunthorpe and Darlington to win their games on Saturday. And if one (or more) of that quartet loses, we’ll give you a free £5 bet.

Specific Terms:

To be eligible for a free bet, you must have placed a single fourfold, staking at least £10, on The Four Tops fourfold, which backs the following teams to win their matches on Saturday November 22nd,

2008: Chelsea, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Scunthorpe United and Darlington. The fourfold must be placed before 3pm on Saturday November 22nd, 2008.

A free £5 bet will be paid if one (or more) of the four teams specified above loses their fixture on Saturday November 22nd, 2008.

Free bets are limited to one per person.

Free bets will be paid into accounts by 6pm on Thursday November 27th, 2008.

Standard Betfair Terms and Conditions apply.

This football tip comes courtesy of the Oracle

1pt Fulham to beat Tottenham in the Premiership, 12/5 PaddyPower or 23/10 Bet365 (Saturday 15th November 3pm ko)

It is very important not to get too carried away with short term trends when betting on football, and to keep focused on the bigger picture. Juande Ramos was sacked as Tottenham manager after a terrible start to the season left Spurs bottom of the Premiership. He brought in a number of expensive signings over the summer and Spurs were expected to mount a challenge to the big four. However, the loss of Robbie Keane and Dimitar Berbatov late in the summer was a big blow and was a major factor in Spurs poor start in my opinion. Since Harry Redknapp has taken over, Spurs have suddenly come to life and are unbeaten in six games under their new manager. However, just as Tottenham were not as poor as their form suggested under Ramos, they are also not as good as the form they are currently experiencing under Redknapp. The media has gone overboard as a result of this good run and a number of bookmakers appear to have swallowed it.

The fact of the matter is that Redknapp has had a huge amount of luck so far in his short career as Tottenham boss. He started off with a home game against a very poor Bolton side and unsurprisingly picked up three points. This was followed by a trip to the Emirates stadium for the North London derby with Arsenal. Spurs nicked two late goals and gained a point they did not deserve. This was down to Arsenal carelessly throwing away the lead with sloppy play, rather than Harry masterminding some great comeback. Next up was Liverpool, who in Redknapp’s own words “murdered us”! The Scousers should have been 4-0 up before an own goal levelled things up and again Tottenham nicked a late goal to win it. Spurs didn’t deserve a point that day, let alone three. Last weekend saw more of the same, as Spurs trailed Man City before two sendings off allowed them to steal the points. Another win followed in mid week and from the praise being lavished on Redknapp once again by the media, you’d have sworn it wasn’t a Liverpool reserve team containing ten changes they’d just beaten?

So now we have a situation where Tottenham have been priced up as short as 11/10 (48% win chance) to win away from home against a Fulham side with a home record on a par with the big four. The cottagers have lost just one of their six home games, have won four times in front of their own fans already and only Chelsea have conceded fewer goals at home. Like previous seasons, it is their away form which is letting Fulham down with just a single point gained on their travels. Tottenham’s price looks even more ridiculous when you look at their own away form, not just this season but over the last several seasons. Their fortuitous victory over Man City was just their first away win of the season and last year they won just three times away from home. The season before that, they managed five away wins and the season before that they managed six. In fact, over the last three season Tottenham have won just 23% of their away fixtures, which equates to an average price of 10/3! Another factor here is that Tottenham have not won at Craven Cottage since 2002! Their record in that time reads W0-D2-L4.

Whilst their form at the moment is impressive, it is also very misleading and Redknapp joked during this week that he should resign now as things could only go down hill from now on. I think he was spot on, things can only go down hill, and Redknapp is still talking about avoiding relegation, rather than challenging for European places. Tottenham have been leaking goals by the hatful all season, the only thing Redknapp has done, is to get them scoring themselves. The defence changes every week as Ledley King’s injury only allows him to play every other week. This has caused a lot of uncertainty in a back four that already has suspect full backs defensively and which sits in front of one of the most unreliable goalkeepers in the Premiership. It is no secret that come January, Spurs will be signing a new keeper to replace Gomes and Shay Given was being linked with a move this afternoon. Gomes is a complete liability at set pieces and with crosses in general. He is just as likely to clatter one of his own defenders as he is to clear any danger.

If this game was played a month ago, Fulham would probably have been favourites. The prices on offer are being dictated by a short term trend and anything over 15/8 is fantastic value in my opinion. Fulham have already beaten Arsenal at home this season and in Danny Murphy, Simon Davies and Bobby Zamora, they have three Spurs old boys who will be fired up to put one over their previous employers. Andy Johnson is returning to full fitness and has three goals in as many games too. Fulham have to be backed to make it three home wins on the bounce.

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Read more about The Oracle football betting service by clicking the link below

Football Bets

Saturday November 15th

No Account Bet

One Selection Today

Cheltenham 2.00

JOE LIVELY

Each Way 6/1
blog comment: was 6/1 earlier in the day when advised to full members

best bookmaker price now 5/1in many places eg PaddyPower, Ladbrokes, BetDirect, Bet365

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CHELTENHAM 2:00

SERVO SERVICES HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (4yo+) 3m3f110y

7/2 Opera Mundi, 5/1 Halcon Genelardais, 6/1 Joe Lively, 13/2 Parsons Legacy, 8/1 Beat The Boys,  Karanja, 10/1 Comply Or Die, 12/1 Simon, 14/1 Flintoff, 16/1 Dom D´Orgeval, 100/1 Sweet Diversion.

SELECTION – JOE LIVELY Each Way

This is a complicated long distance Handicap Chase over 3m 3f. Its pretty hard to read as you do not know which horses are about to have prep races like the Welsh National and don’t want penalties or weight rises. I can not have KARANJA with only 2 chase runs and he looks inexperienced as does DOM D’OGEVAL with just 6 runs. I
dont want SWEET DIVERSION as she is out of the weights. This race has never gone to a horse from a Novice Chase so BEAT THE BOYS has to go. COMPLY OR DIE the Grand National winner pulled up in this race last year with far less weight and I would imagine that winning the National and the 15lbs rise that cost him will stop him winning and
many National winners struggle to win in their next season. I can see why PARSONS LEGACY is favourite after winning well on his seasonal debut. However you can argue he is better on faster ground and that he is best fresh and a career high mark today will take some overcoming. The
2007 winner came from the Scottish Grand National just as FLINTOFF, OPERA MUNDI and HALCON GENELARDAIS all do. I dont want HALCON GENELARDAIS as he is having his first run of the year and has topweight. This could be a prep run for the Welsh National. He is on a career high mark. The only seasonal debutant that defied a big weight in this race was in 1999 (Hanakham) and he only won in a 5 runner race and was a Sun Alliance Chase winner and HALCON GENELARDAIS wouldnt be my choice today. FLINTOFF looks weak in the market and may need his seasnal debut this year.  OPERA MUNDI has big chances and has to be shortlisted. JOE LIVELY has a great chance after a strong
seasonal debut run. So to does SIMON who was 5th in this race last year. I opposed SIMON last year as he is a small horse and I wasnt convinced he would get round. He did though and came 5th on ground that was too fast for him. This year he has better ground. He also has 10lbs less weight. Whilst there is always the chance SIMON smacks one of these fences he has ran very well here in his 3 Cheltenham stats and he isnt out of this. If I was shortlisting in this race I would shortlist the following 3 horses

JOE LIVELY – OPERA MUNDI – SIMON

I had strong reasons why OPERA MUNDI lost his last two races last season and dnt worry about those runs and I do like the fact that 6 year olds have a good record in the race. Wouldnt surprise me if he won but I would have to question his stamina over 27.5 furlongs. He is a french bred and his sire has not sired a 3m + winner yet and he has not proven his stamina yet. With SIMON lacking a run this year I do think the best bet in this race has to be JOE LIVELY each way.

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Horse Racing Tips

2.00 Cheltenham – The Servo Computer Services Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 3½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Third and fourth favourites have provided 7 winners from 27 qualifiers and backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £22.50 (ROI +83.3%).

Position LTO: 10 of the 15 winners finished in the first three last time out.
Age: 5, 6 and 7 year olds have produced 7 winners from 32 qualifiers (SR 21.9%) showing a profit of £16.62 (ROI +51.9%).

Class LTO: 10 of the 15 winners raced in the same class last time out. Backing all 39 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.75 (ROI +50.5%).

Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £6.87 (ROI +57.3%).

Sex of horse: Fillies and mares have won 2 races from just 5 qualifiers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Second favourites have a dreadful record wins 0 wins from 15 runners.

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced only 2 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -56.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 20 qualifiers showing a loss of £4.63 (ROI -23.2%).

LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have recorded 4 wins from 25 qualifiers showing a small profit of £2.12 (ROI +8.5%).

Age: 8 year olds have produced 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 10 year olds have produced 2 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 11 year olds plus have won 2 from 11 (SR 18.2%).

Trends analysis: younger horses (5 to 7yos) have an excellent record winning 47% of the races from just 24% of the runners, and all such runners require very close scrutiny. Recent form seems fairly important with 10 of the 15 winners having finished in the first three on their last run. Third and fourth favourites have a good record, as do horses racing in the same class. In terms of price, horses priced in double figures not surprisingly struggle. The Pipe stable have done well in the past, but it should be noted that both David Pipe’s runners have been pulled up in the past two seasons.

Conclusion – Opera Mundi loves soft / heaby ground with 4 wins and a second from 5 runs on such ground. He is the preferred age bracket although his last run saw him fail to finish. Halcon Genelardais and Flintoff are other I quite like in this heat, but I’m going for Opera Mundi.

2.35 Cheltenham – this race tends to favour the front end of the betting. Barbers Shop is the most interesting for me. Henderson has recently had a poor record in chases at Cheltenham – losing run stretches back to an incredible 41 losers. However, this is a trainer who has previously had a great record in chases at this track and he will surely break the hoodoo soon. The stable have been cracking form and Barbers Shop should go very close. I also like Maljimar who has a good record fresh and well enough on easy ground. I am going split stake on the pair. At big odds Stan is interesting if he can get home in the ground.

3.10 Cheltenham – Sullumo is my pick is an trappy contest with dangers including Valerius.

3.45 Cheltenham – Qanta De Thaix has been backed off the boards having been in double figures on on Betfair last night. Any value has gone, but with the Pipe stable winning this four times in a row earlier in the decade, this is clearly a race they like. At a price I like Jocheski – was 33/1 at Ladbrokes early but 25s around now and bigger on Betfair. His 2nd at Hereford in May is solid form with the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th going on to win at least once since (admittedly the 3rd that day has won on the flat since and not over hurdles). Very close to an account bet but there are too mnay unexposed hurdlers in this for me to go in big.

Bet on this Weekend’s Sport
The National Hunt season starts in earnest this weekend as Cheltenham hosts the Open Meeting, with the highlight coming on Saturday afternoon in the form of the Gold Cup Chase. The two early Premiership leaders will be looking to gain an advantage in one of the most competitive Premiership races in years this weekend. Liverpool are in action first when they travel to Bolton on Saturday lunch time, while Chelsea must wait until later that day to face bottom side West Bromwich Albion. On Sunday Everton host Middlesbrough as seventh meets eighth, while Hull look to continue their bright start when they host Manchester City.

Weekend Horse Racing

Cheltenham hosts the first jumps festival of the new season this weekend, with the three day Open Meeting. The highlight is the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at 2:35pm on Saturday, where Silverburn is the 10/3 favourite at VCbet, with Imperial Commander, a 6/1 shot with Pagebet, and Barbers Shop at 8/1 with BGBET following closely behind in the betting.

Last years winning trainer Ferdy Murphy is looking to defend the crown he won with 13/2 chance L’Antartique, and his challenger this year is Three Mirrors. However another success would be even more impressive this time round as Three Mirrors is currently a 40/1 outsider with both Pagebet and BGBET.

Existing Pagebet customers! Have FIVE outright win bets of £25 or more on any FIVE different races at Cheltenham over the 3 days of the festival, and Pagebet will give you a free £25 bet. 1

If your horse falls in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at 2.35pm Cheltenham on Saturday, we will refund your win stakes in the form of free bets.2

Free Fall…

All races at Cheltenham (Saturday & Sunday)

If your selection FALLS, VCbet will refund your losing stake as a free bet on the following day’s racing!3

Weekend Football

Bolton v Liverpool, Saturday, Sky Sports 1, 12:45pm

Liverpool are the first of the leaders to play this weekend, and they will want to leave the Reebok with a three point lead over Chelsea after their game against Bolton. After their stutter against Tottenham the Reds looked to be back on form last week against West Brom as they ran out 3-0 winners. Robbie Keane scored his first Premier League goals for Liverpool at Anfield as his brace sealed the game before half time. Bolton have had a mini revival of late which has seen them climb from the relegation to mid table. They beat upstarts Hull 1-0 last time out, and that came on the back of a 2-0 win over Man City at the Reebok.

Bolton are 5/1 with BGBET to continue their good form, while Liverpool are 3/5 with Pagebet to build their lead at the top of the Premiership.

If Ryan Babel scores at anytime during Bolton v Liverpool, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

West Bromwich Albion v Chelsea, Saturday, Setanta Sports 1, 5:30pm

Chelsea travel to the Hawthorns on Saturday evening for a possible top v bottom clash. Going into the weekend they were top thanks to their goal difference, which is down to new coach Phil Scolari’s attacking mentality. They have scored 16 goals in their last 5 Premiership games, and the West Brom defence will have to hold strong to withstand the formidable Chelsea attack. The Baggies will certainly have to put on a better performance than they have done so far against other sides from the “Big Four”, as Liverpool beat them 3-0 last week, while Manchester United put four past them in October.

West Brom are a massive 7/1 outsider with CentreBet to cause a huge upset, while Chelsea are 2/7 with BGBET to move back to the top of the Premiership.

If Florent Malouda scores at anytime during West Brom v Chelsea, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

Everton v Middlesbrough, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 1:30pm

Two sides who have had promising starts to the campaign meet on Sunday when Middlesbrough travel to Goodison to face Everton. Everton will be full of confidence as they have won their last three Premiership games, although in each of these games they have only scored in the last ten minutes. This knack of scoring late goals was demonstrated in its most startling effect at West Ham last week, when they scored three times in the last ten minutes to come form a goal behind to win 3-1. Boro have also left it late in scoring in their last two games, as Tuncay’s 88th minute winner at Villa Park last week followed Mido’s 83rd minute goal at West Ham the week before that gave the Teesider’s a 1-1 draw.
Everton are 4/5 with Pagebet to stretch their unbeaten run to five games, with Boro 7/2 at CentreBet to continue their recent good run of form.

If Marouane Fellaini scores at anytime during Everton v Middlesbrough, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

If Everton v Middlesbrough finishes 0-0 BGBET will refund all losing correct score bets on that game.4

Hull v Manchester City, Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 4:00pm

Despite their excellent start Hull will be looking to win for the first time in four Premiership games when they welcome Manchester City to the KC Stadium on Sunday. Last week’s 1-0 defeat to Bolton showed how far the Tiger’s have come this season, as many people were shocked that the Premiership new boys were beat by an established Premiership side. Prior to that game they had been brought back down to earth with successive defeats against Man Utd. and Chelsea, although they did push the Champions close at Old Trafford. Manchester City will also be looking for their first league win in four, although their pre-season expectations would have been considerably higher than Hulls. However, the addition of Robinho and Wright-Phillips has not transformed the side in the way many believed, and they will want to leave Humberside on Sunday night with some points as they prepare for a spending spree in January.
Hull are 19/10 with VCbet to continue their excellent start to the season, while BGBET make Manchester City 13/10 at the KC Stadium.

If Shaun Wright Phillips scores at anytime during Hull v Manchester City, BGBET will refund all losing first goalscorer stakes on the match.4

Place a correct score bet on any of the above matches this week, and if it gets beat by an injury time goal BGBET will refund all losing correct score stakes on that match.¹

1st SCORER 2nd CHANCE

Applies to all Premier League matches this weekend

Place a First Goal scorer bet and if your player fails to score the first goal but scores at any other time in the match we’ll refund your stake as a free bet on any future match.5

Open an account with any of the following bookmakers and receive a free bet:

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