Good Money After Bad On The Drifter?

Just a quick pointer to an online copy of a recent free newsletter over on the Mathematician site.

Quite a few readers there replied to say that they found it interesting / informative.

It touches on several different topics one of which is the scenario of having backed a horse

only to see it later drift badly in the markets. What do you do?

 

Read more here => Good Money After Bad On The Drifter

 

Professional Betting Randomness And Value

Two zones that professional gamblers tend to understand
a lot better that long term loser mug punters would be
the concepts of randomness and value.

An understanding of these issues can help form
a very solid foundation to one’s future approach to betting.

Playing on the building analogy picture the idea of building a house for yourself.
It can be tempting to jump straight to some of the more interesting stuff.
Where will the man cave with bar and pool table go?
Or perhaps you may lie awake at night thinking paint colors and curtain fabric.

A professional builder if building a house for himself would be well aware of
a number great disasters of history that occurred due to lack of thought
with regards to solid foundations.

Super solid foundations would be number 1 of his checklist.

With betting many punters actively jump in and participate
with little or no comprehension to core foundational stuff.

Bookies of course a encouraging of this.
They prefer their customers to be unsmart, unshrewd and unthinking.

By all means choose to remain in their preferred customer group
if that is your desire.

If however you want to try and pull yourself up a notch
this article below from Insider Gambles is well worth a read.

 

==>>  Professional Betting  Randomness And Value

Lincoln Handicap Trends

Great to see the flat season return tomorrow.

The Lincoln meeting at Doncaster traditionally trumpets

the start of the new flat season.

To get your brain back into flat mode again

how about trying to solve the not so simple

little puzzle of the Lincoln Handicap.

A bit of research data usually assists with such tasks.

You can find some here.

They are a bit of a mix of common found standard items

plus some more research that is a bit more unique in nature.

 

==> Lincoln Handicap Trends

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

The Cheltenham Festival is looming and I have for you today

a bit of an advance early look at the Cheltenham Gold Cup from

Guy the horse racing analyst over at www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk.

================================================



FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Today I wanted to make some progress

On the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Which is now just 16 days away



Cheltenham Gold Cup

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


If you go back to 1999

19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter


19 renewals since 1999
75 horses had this profile
17 of these won the race

Horses with this profile

Presenting Percy
Shattered Love
Elegant Escape
Kemboy

Just looking at that shortlist
KEMBOY would be my preference

I would not use this profile religiously
It would only take minor adjustments
And I could add other horses to the list
Take the example of Al Boum Photo
Just ran in Listed class not Graded class
I could easily forgive a few horses angles
Road To Respect could have got there


Anyway

Wanted to have a look at the main runners
Listed some of their positives + negatives
And see where we ended up at the end

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


Number of Chase runs

22 Frodon
21 Bristol De Mai
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
15 Road To Respect
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy


This is an illustration
Of how exposed the main runners are

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs



FRODON

22 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

BRISTOL DE MAI

21 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

DEFINITLY RED
18 Chase runs
Not in line with almost all winners

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgiveable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
Can he repeat previous heroics
When the ground may not be soft

THISTLECRACK

11 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
He has also had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
Has not won a race since 2016

MIGHT BITE

10 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
Flopped on his two runs this season

PRESENTING PERCY

5 Chase runs
You can win this with 5
Interrupted Season
Just 1 run this year (hurdles)

CLAN DES OBEAUX

Has a 27 day absence
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far

ANIBALE FLY

Not a certain runner
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn't
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

SHATTERED LOVE

She is a mare
Official Ratings have her way behind
Big price if you wanted to risk her

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Defied his pedigree before
Can't be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But flat bred and just can't have the pedigree


Leaning more towards these horses


AL BOUM PHOTO

He is a 7yo
Has raced just once this season
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with 1 run
That is my only problem with him
Two recent winners had 1 run that year
Thats a positive but none were 7yo's
He is also coming from a sire
Without a winner over this far

KEMBOY

He is a 7yo
Maybe fast improving
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has no wins yet over 3m 2f +

INVITATION ONLY

Backed him at 50/1 some time ago
Seen as not a certain runner

ROAD TO RESPECT

15 Chase runs is acceptable
Finished a decent 4th in 2018 race
Connections say he wants it soft
His numbers don't really prove this
Stamina may be an issue sired by Gamut
His sires runners in Class 4 or higher
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f (0-13)
I would not rule him out on the above

BELLSHILL

9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts


Provisional Shortlist

INVITATION ONLY 50/1 (WP Mullins)
AL BOUM PHOTO 20/1 (WP Mullins)
KEMBOY 10/1 (WP Mullins)
BELLSHILL 14/1 (WP Mullins)
ROAD TO RESPECT 25/1


Obviously things can change
May have a completely different view later
But these 5 horses interested me most

4 of the 5 shortlisted
Are trained by Willie Mullins

Can't find any prices yet
Just for Mullins to win this race
But that could be an option later on

This list could be whittled down
Invitation Only may run elsewhere

Obviously the biggest headache
Not knowing the stable pecking order
But looking at this experimental shortlist
Looking at the prices and frame of race

If the race was being run today
I would probably stake it this way

£2.50 Each Way KEMBOY 10/1
£2.50 Each Way BELLSHILL 14/1

The race is not being run today
There is still much we do not know
Such as ground and running plans
Still clinging on for the vain hope
That we may be offered 4 places
I don't think we will get that though

But this is where I am with the race

No final selection
***************************************************
***************************************************

 

 

Out of interest it has been tradition over the past few years
that Guy gives his final judgement advice on the Cheltenham Gold Cup
out to any registered on his free newsletter. Typically this will be on the
day of the race itself after actual runners and going conditions are confirmed.

If interested in receiving his final assessment register for free at this link

==> Free Horse Racing Tips

 

 

UFC 229 – All you need to know

It has finally arrived! The most anticipated clash in the history of the UFC between two of the sports leading lights in Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor. Both fighters bring in impressive profiles in which there key attributes can be viewed in more detail in the infographic below. How about the fight? We list all you need to know below:

Contest: UFC 229 Main event – Lightweight title fight

Date: October 6th (7th in the UK)

Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

How to watch: Live on BT Sport in the UK

Time of fight: Starts at 1am with the main event scheduled for around 4 or 5am

Odds on the McGregor Khabib fight:       Khabib Nurmagomedov (4/7)       Conor McGregor (6/4)

 

Khabib-vs-McGregor-2018

 

 

 

 

The 2018 edition of the Ryder Cup is quickly approaching us and it is shaping up to be a fiercely contested one. The United States are the current holders of the competition following their 17-11 victory over Team Europe at the Hazeltine National Golf Club in 2016, and will want to retain the trophy for the first time since the 1993 Ryder Cup. However, if history repeats itself then it’ll be unlikely the Americans will retain the cup as their last victory in Europe came in 1993.

 

This year’s tournament will be held on the Albatros Course of Le Golf National in France for the first time in the tournaments history, and will be the second Ryder Cup to be held in Continental Europe.

 

Despite the United States team having an awful record in Europe over the years, they surprisingly head into the tournament as favourites according to the Ryder Cup odds available on numerous bookmaker sites. From an outsiders perspective this might seem shocking, but if you look more closely into it then you get a clearer picture of why the Americans are rated so highly this time around. Since their Ryder Cup victory in 2016, American golfers have dominated in the following eight Major tournaments. Six of the previous eight Major winners have all been from America, with half of those titles going to Brooks Koepka.

 

Although the United States team might come into the tournament as slight favourites, the Ryder Cup is always difficult to predict, and considering the American teams form in Europe in the past couple of decades, it is just as likely the European side are likely to regain the trophy from the Americans.

 

With the tournament just around the corner, this infographic has been created which gives you a run down on the golf course, giving you all the information you need to know about each hole including its length and par. Check it out!

 

Le Golf National Golf Course

 

 

 

 

 

 

We are all familiar with those situations when you hear someone lamenting their ‘luck’ at the races. Not bad luck in the traditional sense, such as a horse falling at the last fence, but ‘luck’ in a sense of questioning a series of random events like “the favourites just weren’t at it today.”  The idea here is that, on a given day, some hand of providence has decided that the favourites, each competing independently, have somehow collectively decided or been prompted to perform badly.

This all feeds into one of the most interesting ideas of betting psychology, termed apophenia, where we see connections in random events or numbers. The simplest example is the roulette wheel. If, for example, number 12 has come up, we might change the next number that we bet on, because we feel that it is less likely to come up twice in a row. Of course, the irony is that some people might think that number 12 is more likely to come up because it is ‘hot’.

 

DSC_2631

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

 

Consecutive winners can feel ‘out of place’

Going back to racing, there are lots of ways this apophenia filters into our decision-making. Consider this question: How many punters would have been, even unconsciously, put off by backing Frankie Dettori after the third or fourth race during his famous seven-winners day at Ascot in 1996? Surely by mid-afternoon some would have felt that Dettori had already used up his ‘quota’ of wins for the day? We must remember that only two of those horses, Diffident and Decorated Hero, went off at odds greater than 4/1. The collective result was remarkable, but each individual race wasn’t.

 

 

Apophenia stops us from judging each race on its merits. Consider Willie Mullins, uncharacteristically, having no winners on Day One of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival. How many of us would have begun to blindly back the Irish trainer because we felt his luck was due to turn? Now, as it turned out, Mullins’ did bounce back with four stunning wins on St Patrick’s Thursday, but this was down to the merits of each individual horse, and some fine riding by Ruby Walsh. None of it was down to Mullins’ being ‘due’ a couple of winners to satisfy the precedence of his marvellous Cheltenham record.

 

horse-image003

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

Wasting free bets is bad psychology

It is, of course, a given that having a cold detachment can help with your betting, but the psychology of it permeates everything we do. Using free bets, for example, and you can follow the link to find the best free bet no deposit offers to use now,  we are more likely to plump for something as a longshot, because ‘it’s not our money’. At the very least, we put less thought into it than we do for our own money. Bookies know this. They know that we are less likely to bet on Manchester City, at odds-on with all bookmakers to win the Premier League this season, than a team like Liverpool (5/1, William Hill) or Manchester United (7/1).

Is it possible to be truly objective when placing a bet? Perhaps not. Betting fills us full of emotion. We may come to unconsciously dislike a horse or jockey because they scuppered a bet before. Or, indeed, we could be drawn towards a horse because of the good times delivered in the past. However, the more we move towards objective reasoning, the better our ‘luck’ should become.

 

 

 

 

MANCHESTER CITY WILL BE PROVIDING THE MOST PLAYERS AT THE WORLD CUP

The Premier League is one of the biggest and most watched leagues in the world, with some of the finest football clubs in world football competing against each other. The top flight of English football is the most lucrative league in the world, with multi-billion pound TV deals being signed every few years and being distributed evenly across all twenty Premier League clubs. Considering that every Premier League is guaranteed at least £100 million in TV deals and prize money every season, it is no surprise that every club in the league can afford to spend large sums of money every season in order to improve their squads. There is a fear amongst some fans that the money from TV deals will eventually ‘dry up’ due to the increasing costs, but with television deals worth around £8.4 billion being secured in the past year, there seems to be no end to the amount of money which is being pumped into the league for the time being.

 

Last season, there were a number of impressive performances from players from all twenty Premier League clubs. Some players managed to put in one or two world class performances, whilst others were in sensational form all season. One of the most consistent players this season was Mohamed Salah. At the start of the season, Salah wasn’t the favourite to be the top goalscorer according to the football odds, but the Egyptian was in sensational form all season and managed to score 32 goals throughout the Premier League season to end up winning the ‘Golden Boot’ trophy. The Egyptian forward stole the headlines all season thanks to his impressive goal tally, but there were other players which were just as impressive. Two-time ‘Golden Boot’ winner Harry Kane narrowly missed out on the award for the third time in a row, finishing just two goals behind Salah. Whilst Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne racked up an impressive 16 assists.

 

These performances throughout the season have meant that a number of players in the league were in the final World Cup squad for their respective countries. In this quiz, it is your job to figure out how many players from each Premier League club will be competing in Russia this summer. Current champions Manchester City have the most players competing out of any Premier League club, but are you able to figure out the specific number. Take this quiz and find out.

 

The biggest international football tournament in the world, the World Cup, has finally arrived! Every four years, the best national teams from around the world get together and compete against each other to get their hands on the prestigious trophy. The World Cup odds to win that are current available suggest that current world champions Germany are the favourites to win the trophy for the second consecutive tournament. However, five-time winners Brazil are just behind them on the odds market. Like the previous World Cup tournament, these two are the favourites to face off against each other in the final. However depending of their results in the group stage, the two nations could potentially face each other in the ‘Round of 16’ if Brazil win their group and Germany finish in second place in their group. Similarly, the teams could also face each other in the same round if Brazil finish second and Germany finish third. However, the most likely scenario is that both teams will win their groups. If this is the case then a final between the two sides is likely as it will be the earliest they will be able to ‘meet’ each other.

 

The average age of all 736 players is almost 28 years old, which will be the oldest in the tournament’s history. As you would expect, world class players such Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, and Edinson Cavani will all be competing at the tournament and adding to their 100+ caps despite reaching the later stages of their career. They’ll also be looking to add to their international goal tally. Meanwhile there will be players such as Dele Alli, Leon Goretzka, and Sergej Milinkovi?-Savi? who are relatively new to international tournaments and will be making their debut at the World Cup this summer. Although these players have very little experience on the international stage, they have to ability to produce moments of magic which could help their teams in the later stages of the tournament.

 

In this quiz, you are required to guess each individual player from their record for the national team. Some of the players mentioned should be instantly recognisable, but other may be slightly more difficult to guess. Take this quiz to see how many you can get correct, and let us know your score.

 

 

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IMAGE SOURCE: @Hochi_Horse_en via Twitter

It is undoubtedly a great time to be a sports fan
at the moment. While the likes of the Cheltenham
Festival, the Six Nations and the Grand National at
Aintree have already been and gone, there
remains a host of top sporting events still to
come across the rest of 2018. From the World
Cup to Wimbledon and even a new football
season, there are a host of opportunities for
people to get betting on their favourite sports.

With this in mind, you may have already started
to assess your options in terms of which specific
events you want to have a flutter on. You might
have also had an early glance at odds to see
where you may eventually choose to put your
money. However, another important issue you
then have to consider is just how much cash you
ultimately plan to stake on your upcoming bets.
Should you always play it safe and keep amounts
modest or are there actually moments when you
could go big and really dig deep into your betting
bank?

In this article, we are going to take a look at the
so-called act of ‘high-rolling’ and whether there
are standout moments in sports betting where
high stakes are the only way to go.

A roll of the dice

For the uninitiated, the idea of a ‘high-roller’
has its roots in rolling the dice in casino gambling
but it has been adopted and used in a range of
other different areas across the decades.

As the Collins English Dictionary outlines, the basic
definition of a high roller in gambling is an
individual who puts down large stakes – a
strategy that clearly not only offers significant
potential for winning big but plenty of risks too.
However, it is a relative misconception to say
that people take the high-roller approach without
care, as, quite often, a lot of thought and
strategy goes into it. For example, according to an
article by Betway, high rollers in roulette in the
past have tended to use an adapted version of
the famous Martingale strategy in order to try to
maximise their winnings. In addition, such
individuals – who can also be referred to as
‘whales’ – often undertake a lot of research into a
game before deciding it is for them. As Business
Insider highlights, many involved in gambling are
drawn to baccarat as it is a game which offers
only a small advantage to the house when
compared to others.

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IMAGE SOURCE: @ValleyGames_CA via Twitter

But while high-rolling is a major established
concept in gambling, is there ever a time when
putting down a high stake makes sense in the
sports betting world?

Key issues

While there are never any guarantees of success
when it comes to betting, one of the most
obvious times when high stakes may be the way
to go could be when there is a competitor or
team who is seemingly an absolute dead-cert for
victory. Alternatively, such an approach may be
an option in a scenario when backing a prolific
striker to finish as the top goalscorer in a football season.
Take La Liga for example, where the likes
of Ronaldo and Messi have dominated the scoring
charts for years.

Of course, it should also be said that – as with
any other form of betting – there are always key
issues to bear in mind when planning to put big
money on an outcome.

A great place to get started with sports betting
is to get the basics right and try to strengthen
your position with a bit of research. Whether it is
horse racing or football, take time to consider
form and the potential for upsets so that you can
make an informed decision on where to put your
money. It is also worth bearing in mind that
inspiration can from a number of unlikely places,
with research even hinting that Twitter can prove
useful when trying to predict the outcome of a
football match.

Furthermore, as in any betting situation, it is
always important to make bankroll management
a top priority. It is always useful to put limits in
place in terms of how you intend to bet, with the
ultimate aim of avoiding any risk of damaging
losses and ensuring your betting always remains
fun.

Exciting action

This year looks set to be an absolute classic for
sporting action and that means there are a host
of opportunities for you to have a bet on the
outcome of a range of competitions. While there
may only be a handful of occasions when it is
suitable to put down a high stake, it is worth
keeping the betting basics in mind to ensure you
stay on track for some success.